MLBengine v14
← LAA at SEA, Sep 26, 2026
8:40 PM CT · T-Mobile Park · lineup projected
Hitter · SEA · batting 8Lazaro Montes
Bats leftTalent grade AvgBalancedNormal
.364wOBA vs RHP.344xwOBA vs his mix3.4expected PA
Starter · LAARyan Johnson
Throws rightBTB Stuff 92Trending Up
4.2projected K19%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Ryan Johnson's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Cutter: 40% usage, 89.6 mph, -1.9″ arm side, +9.2″ rise. Lazaro Montes: wOBA .370 vs league .362 (about even).Cutter 40%Sweeper: 25% usage, 81.0 mph, -7.6″ arm side, +6.8″ rise. Lazaro Montes: wOBA .350 vs league .342 (about even).Sweeper 25%Splitter: 20% usage, 84.7 mph, +14.0″ arm side, +1.4″ rise. Lazaro Montes: wOBA .298 vs league .290 (about even).Splitter 20%Sinker: 15% usage, 92.3 mph, +14.2″ arm side, +6.2″ rise. Lazaro Montes: wOBA .359 vs league .350 (about even).Sinker 15%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Lazaro Montes's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Lazaro Montes's last 25 balls in playHit (10)Out (15)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Single: 104.4 mph at 2°Out: 93.0 mph at -11°Single: 32.4 mph at 24°Out: 103.0 mph at 44°Out: 96.8 mph at 54°Out: 92.8 mph at 55°Out: 101.2 mph at 10°Out: 90.4 mph at -4°Out: 104.9 mph at 15°Out: 94.9 mph at 61°Home run: 107.6 mph at 38°Single: 55.5 mph at -64°Out: 88.0 mph at 53°Out: 102.2 mph at 16°Home run: 110.8 mph at 31°Double: 67.2 mph at 34°Home run: 116.1 mph at 24°Out: 74.1 mph at 4°Out: 74.3 mph at 6°Out: 74.5 mph at 2°Single: 81.1 mph at 23°Out: 92.1 mph at 44°Single: 98.7 mph at -6°Home run: 106.0 mph at 27°Out: 85.6 mph at 68°
44% hit 95+ mph32% in the sweet spot40% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit54.2%53.9%+0.3
2+ total bases31.9%31.4%+0.6
Home run14.2%12.8%+1.5
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+1.5
Pitch mix
+0.1
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
-1.2
2+ total bases
Starter
+1.8
Pitch mix
+0.1
Bullpen
-0.3
Park
-1.0
Home run
Starter
+1.9
Pitch mix
+0.1
Bullpen
-0.4
Park
-0.1

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Pitch by pitch

Lazaro Montes against each of Ryan Johnson's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Cutter40%89.6-2″ / +9″.370.36231.6%18.3%7Little history vs this shape
Sweeper25%81.0-8″ / +7″.350.34238.7%27.4%5Little history vs this shape
Splitter20%84.7+14″ / +1″.298.29037.7%25.8%3Little history vs this shape
Sinker15%92.3+14″ / +6″.359.35024.6%13.5%6Little history vs this shape
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Lazaro Montes · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G512.100.250.100.192.17150.0%16.7%33.3%96.8104.40.0%50.0%0.0%
Last 15 G1528.250.357.667.423.40246.4%14.3%42.2%95.6116.127.3%63.6%36.4%
Last 30 G1939.265.359.647.419.37846.2%12.8%42.0%94.0116.125.0%56.2%37.5%
90 days1939.265.359.647.419.37846.2%12.8%42.0%94.0116.125.0%56.2%37.5%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 16 balls in play
Ground 31%Line drive 25%Fly ball 31%Pop-up 13%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G46.167.167.167.150.24033.3%0.0%40.0%81.8103.00.0%50.0%50.0%
Last 15 G811.091.091.091.082.14836.4%0.0%36.8%83.4103.00.0%28.6%28.6%
Last 30 G1114.071.071.071.064.12635.7%0.0%30.4%82.7103.00.0%22.2%22.2%
90 days1114.071.071.071.064.12635.7%0.0%30.4%82.7103.00.0%22.2%22.2%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 9 balls in play
Ground 33%Line drive 22%Fly ball 11%Pop-up 33%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G518.125.222.125.178.19444.4%11.1%35.3%89.2104.40.0%50.0%25.0%
Last 15 G1539.200.282.486.327.33043.6%10.3%41.0%90.8116.116.7%50.0%33.3%
Last 30 G1953.208.283.479.325.31243.4%9.4%39.6%89.9116.116.0%44.0%32.0%
90 days1953.208.283.479.325.31243.4%9.4%39.6%89.9116.116.0%44.0%32.0%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 25 balls in play
Ground 32%Line drive 24%Fly ball 24%Pop-up 20%
FormNormal
Contact rating52Average
Last 100 pitches4trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.327 / .318results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit4/12
2+ total bases3/12
Home run2/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 24RHPChangeup82.9104.42.500Single
Sep 24RHPChangeup82.793.0-11.135Double play
Sep 24LHPSinker88.132.424.263Single
Sep 23LHPCutter86.9103.044.194Out
Sep 22RHPSweeper80.896.854.011Out
Sep 22RHPSweeper84.192.855.005Out
Sep 19LHPSinker88.2101.210.816Out
Sep 19LHPSinker89.090.4-4.168Out
Sep 18RHPCurveball78.3104.915.712Out
Sep 18LHPSlider85.194.961.014Out
Sep 18RHPSlider83.9107.6381.499Home run
Sep 15RHPSweeper81.055.5-64.166Single
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 24422001
Sep 23300011
Sep 22400002
Sep 20300012
Sep 19400002
Sep 18414101
Sep 15211001
Sep 14100010
Sep 13100001
Sep 12100010

Two strikes

Ryan Johnson LAA · RHPwith two strikes
Ryan Johnson with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Cutter40%42%19.6%21.0%17.9%
Sweeper25%26%23.4%17.3%19.3%
Splitter20%21%15.8%12.7%19.0%
Sinker15%10%0.0%0.0%16.9%
Slider0%1%0.0%0.0%21.0%
Lazaro Montes bats Lwith two strikes, vs this hand
Lazaro Montes with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Little two-strike history vs these shapes
With two strikesHimLeague
K%50.1%41.0%
Whiff%25.4%21.3%
Contact%74.6%78.7%
Chase%36.7%39.6%
wOBA.244.245
Whiff vs his put-away shapes24.2%20.2%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeAvgBalanced type
wOBA.317
K%27.3%
BB%8.3%
Whiff%12.5%
Barrel%5.5%
Hard-hit%24.9%
Avg EV88.8

Against right-handers, last 90 days

39 PA
wOBA.364
xwOBA vs this mix.344against pitches like his
RV/1000.63
Hard-hit%24.3%
K%35.1%
BB%8.7%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Ryan JohnsonRHP · LAA vs SEA
4.2projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 7 · 21.8 batters over 5.1 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 39.2%39%≤34 strikeouts: 19.3%19%45 strikeouts: 16.3%16%56 strikeouts: 11.5%12%67 strikeouts: 7.0%7%78 strikeouts: 3.7%4%89+ strikeouts: 3.0%3%9+book 4.5
Over 4.5: 42% (red bars) · under: 59%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%19.1%
BB%9.4%
Whiff%9.6%
Velo87.0
BTB Stuff92
Location99
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Cutter40%11489.79.2%
Sweeper25%9481.215.1%
Splitter20%6384.710.6%
Sinker15%6492.50.5%
Slider0%9584.30.0%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 209127%15%14%.318
Sep 159028%16%24%.286
Sep 910321%7%25%.308

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Ryan Johnson LAA · RHPvsSEA lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

2 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.6%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameLAA @ SEA →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Lazaro Montes: every projection we've made →