MLBengine v14
← LAD at SF, Sep 26, 2026
3:05 PM CT · Oracle Park · lineup projected
Hitter · LAD · batting 5Kyle Tucker
Bats leftTalent grade BContactNormal
.373wOBA vs LHP.341xwOBA vs his mix3.7expected PA
Starter · SFMatt Wilkinson
Throws leftBTB Stuff 85Trending Up
3.0projected K18%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Matt Wilkinson's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 58% usage, 90.5 mph, +11.5″ arm side, +13.8″ rise. Kyle Tucker: wOBA .362 vs league .347 (hitter's edge).Fastball 58%Changeup: 23% usage, 83.8 mph, +14.5″ arm side, +8.7″ rise. Kyle Tucker: wOBA .317 vs league .302 (hitter's edge).Changeup 23%Slider: 14% usage, 79.2 mph, -10.3″ arm side, +1.6″ rise. Kyle Tucker: wOBA .305 vs league .290 (hitter's edge).Slider 14%Cutter: 6% usage, 83.9 mph, -1.0″ arm side, +5.0″ rise. Kyle Tucker: wOBA .338 vs league .323 (hitter's edge).Cutter 6%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Kyle Tucker's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Kyle Tucker's last 40 balls in playHit (15)Out (25)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 91.1 mph at 35°Out: 85.8 mph at -13°Out: 78.2 mph at 53°Single: 72.7 mph at 31°Single: 78.8 mph at 24°Out: 46.1 mph at -6°Out: 63.8 mph at 61°Single: 101.0 mph at 13°Out: 92.2 mph at -8°Out: 48.8 mph at -55°Out: 91.5 mph at 39°Out: 82.1 mph at 31°Out: 88.6 mph at -7°Out: 85.6 mph at 29°Single: 97.6 mph at -10°Single: 66.6 mph at 31°Out: 96.9 mph at -16°Home run: 102.0 mph at 35°Single: 77.2 mph at 19°Double: 102.9 mph at 19°Out: 93.6 mph at 32°Home run: 99.9 mph at 27°Double: 100.5 mph at 18°Out: 96.5 mph at 72°Out: 94.6 mph at 32°Single: 94.3 mph at 6°Out: 54.4 mph at -9°Out: 88.9 mph at -3°Out: 100.8 mph at -2°Home run: 104.0 mph at 31°Out: 77.5 mph at -40°Out: 74.2 mph at 82°Out: 88.6 mph at 25°Out: 94.8 mph at 41°Out: 94.8 mph at 66°Out: 93.6 mph at 37°Triple: 105.0 mph at 23°Out: 91.3 mph at 26°Single: 87.9 mph at 18°Home run: 103.8 mph at 23°
30% hit 95+ mph45% in the sweet spot38% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit63.3%61.4%+1.9
2+ total bases37.2%36.5%+0.7
Home run9.4%11.3%-1.8
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+1.0
Pitch mix
+2.0
Bullpen
+0.2
Park
-1.3
2+ total bases
Starter
+0.3
Pitch mix
+2.0
Bullpen
+0.3
Park
-1.9
Home run
Starter
-1.0
Pitch mix
+0.8
Bullpen
+0.3
Park
-1.9

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Pitch by pitch

Kyle Tucker against each of Matt Wilkinson's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball58%90.5+12″ / +14″.362.3476.8%12.7%35About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Changeup23%83.8+15″ / +9″.317.30221.8%33.3%7Little history vs this shape
Slider14%79.2-10″ / +2″.305.29019.3%28.5%6Little history vs this shape
Cutter6%83.9-1″ / +5″.338.32317.0%29.0%10About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on left-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Kyle Tucker · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G37.286.286.286.257.1950.0%0.0%0.0%73.891.50.0%0.0%28.6%
Last 15 G918.412.4441.000.592.4295.6%5.6%0.0%86.4104.018.8%43.8%43.8%
Last 30 G2040.229.325.543.390.35012.5%12.5%10.0%85.5108.610.0%36.7%43.3%
90 days49100.278.350.467.382.34115.0%10.0%10.8%88.6108.69.6%39.7%42.5%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 73 balls in play
Ground 34%Line drive 25%Fly ball 30%Pop-up 11%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G410.222.300.222.250.25510.0%10.0%5.0%85.9101.00.0%25.0%37.5%
Last 15 G1439.344.436.656.454.37810.3%15.4%9.1%88.5106.213.8%27.6%44.8%
Last 30 G2981.258.370.455.359.3487.4%16.0%13.4%88.8106.28.1%30.6%38.7%
90 days70193.216.326.383.320.34811.4%14.0%16.5%88.0107.76.3%30.8%35.7%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 143 balls in play
Ground 33%Line drive 20%Fly ball 33%Pop-up 14%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G517.250.294.250.253.2305.9%5.9%3.2%80.3101.00.0%13.3%33.3%
Last 15 G1557.367.439.776.497.3948.8%12.3%6.5%87.8106.215.6%33.3%44.4%
Last 30 G30121.248.355.485.369.3499.1%14.9%12.3%87.7108.68.7%32.6%40.2%
90 days74293.238.334.413.341.34612.6%12.6%14.7%88.2108.67.4%33.8%38.0%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 216 balls in play
Ground 33%Line drive 22%Fly ball 32%Pop-up 13%
Kyle Tucker · percentile ranksvs 304 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormNormal
Contact rating79Above average
Last 100 pitches88trending up
wOBA / xwOBA.328 / .346running 18 points behind his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit7/12
2+ total bases4/12
Home run3/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 24RHPCurveball79.791.135.039Out
Sep 24LHPSlider84.285.8-13.083Out
Sep 24LHPSinker100.778.253.063Out
Sep 23LHPSinker92.672.731.455Single
Sep 23LHPSinker93.578.824.596Single
Sep 23LHPSinker89.746.1-6.135Out
Sep 23LHPSinker99.763.861.003Out
Sep 22RHPSinker94.4101.013.915Single
Sep 22RHPSlider89.392.2-8.195Out
Sep 22RHPChangeup88.748.8-55.202Out
Sep 22LHPSinker97.391.539.028Out
Sep 20RHPCutter95.482.131.077Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 24400001
Sep 23422000
Sep 22411000
Sep 20100000
Sep 19411010
Sep 18425110
Sep 17549100
Sep 16411000
Sep 15400021
Sep 14414120

Two strikes

Matt Wilkinson SF · LHPwith two strikes
Matt Wilkinson with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball58%62%19.0%22.0%18.6%
Changeup23%20%27.3%15.8%18.3%
Slider14%14%16.7%7.7%21.6%
Cutter6%5%25.0%20.0%17.8%
Kyle Tucker bats Lwith two strikes, vs this hand
Kyle Tucker with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Little two-strike history vs these shapes
With two strikesHimLeague
K%38.9%44.1%
Whiff%19.3%22.7%
Contact%80.7%77.3%
Chase%33.8%38.1%
wOBA.224.224
Whiff vs his put-away shapes16.8%19.7%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeBContact type
wOBA.345
K%12.9%
BB%12.8%
Whiff%7.5%
Barrel%5.4%
Hard-hit%25.3%
Avg EV88.4

Against left-handers, last 90 days

99 PA
wOBA.373
xwOBA vs this mix.341against pitches like his
RV/1000.65
Hard-hit%28.5%
K%14.8%
BB%12.6%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Matt WilkinsonLHP · SF vs LAD
3.0projected strikeouts · likely 1 to 5 · 16.5 batters over 3.8 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 65.2%65%≤34 strikeouts: 16.6%17%45 strikeouts: 10.0%10%56 strikeouts: 4.9%5%67 strikeouts: 2.1%2%78 strikeouts: 0.8%1%89+ strikeouts: 0.4%0%9+book 2.5
Over 2.5: 57% (red bars) · under: 43%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%18.2%
BB%4.0%
Whiff%7.6%
Velo87.0
BTB Stuff85
Location107
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Fastball55%8290.37.5%
Changeup25%8583.78.3%
Slider14%9679.17.1%
Cutter7%8683.65.3%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 207633%12%6%.189
Sep 46212%3%41%.594
Aug 299018%6%32%.186

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Matt Wilkinson SF · LHPvsLAD lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

3 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against left-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.6%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameLAD @ SF →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Kyle Tucker: every projection we've made →