MLBengine v14
← LAD at SF, Sep 26, 2026
3:05 PM CT · Oracle Park · lineup confirmed
Hitter · LAD · batting 3Will Smith
Bats rightTalent grade BContactHot
.358wOBA vs LHP.360xwOBA vs his mix3.8expected PA
Starter · SFMatt Wilkinson
Throws leftBTB Stuff 85Trending Up
2.7projected K18%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Matt Wilkinson's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 58% usage, 90.5 mph, +11.5″ arm side, +13.8″ rise. Will Smith: wOBA .383 vs league .368 (hitter's edge).Fastball 58%Changeup: 23% usage, 83.8 mph, +14.5″ arm side, +8.7″ rise. Will Smith: wOBA .327 vs league .311 (hitter's edge).Changeup 23%Slider: 14% usage, 79.2 mph, -10.3″ arm side, +1.6″ rise. Will Smith: wOBA .334 vs league .320 (about even).Slider 14%Cutter: 6% usage, 83.9 mph, -1.0″ arm side, +5.0″ rise. Will Smith: wOBA .357 vs league .342 (about even).Cutter 6%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Will Smith's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Will Smith's last 40 balls in playHit (16)Out (24)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Single: 104.7 mph at 15°Single: 97.3 mph at 12°Single: 95.8 mph at 16°Single: 92.2 mph at 15°Out: 74.6 mph at -19°Out: 96.6 mph at 37°Home run: 101.9 mph at 30°Out: 78.7 mph at -5°Single: 66.6 mph at 29°Home run: 105.4 mph at 32°Out: 77.2 mph at 4°Out: 65.9 mph at -6°Single: 102.0 mph at 10°Out: 96.7 mph at 28°Out: 47.5 mph at -61°Home run: 101.6 mph at 33°Out: 85.8 mph at 29°Out: 83.0 mph at 44°Double: 102.9 mph at 20°Single: 99.4 mph at 8°Out: 61.2 mph at -11°Out: 32.5 mph at -45°Out: 67.4 mph at -20°Double: 100.2 mph at 15°Out: 97.6 mph at 37°Out: 76.2 mph at 11°Single: 69.2 mph at 27°Out: 82.3 mph at 43°Out: 92.7 mph at 63°Out: 74.5 mph at 60°Double: 105.0 mph at 13°Out: 98.7 mph at 31°Out: 87.4 mph at 65°Home run: 100.8 mph at 31°Out: 97.2 mph at 46°Out: 81.9 mph at 36°Out: 83.2 mph at 24°Single: 103.1 mph at 11°Out: 60.9 mph at 14°Out: 82.8 mph at 49°
45% hit 95+ mph53% in the sweet spot40% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit63.9%63.6%+0.3
2+ total bases40.0%40.5%-0.4
Home run13.6%14.8%-1.1
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+1.7
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
-1.5
2+ total bases
Starter
+1.8
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
-2.3
Home run
Starter
+1.4
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.0
Park
-2.6

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Will Smith hits
Where they meet

.348 xwOBA for Will Smith in the spots Matt Wilkinson throws to righties

The average hitter in those same spots: .313 (+35 points). His best spot against lefties is up and right, outside, and Matt Wilkinson puts 28% of his pitches there. Context only; the projection reads pitch type, not location.

Matt Wilkinson · where he throws to right-handed hitters
1% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing1%4% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 25% per swing4%5% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 8% per swing5%2% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing2%8% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 7% per swing8%6% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing6%2% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing2%5% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing5%7% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 33% per swing7%4% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 50% per swing4%28% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 29% per swing28%13% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 43% per swing13%16% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 13% per swing16%
All · 290 pitches · catcher's view
1% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters1%7% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters7%9% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters9%3% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters3%12% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters12%5% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters5%2% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters2%5% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters5%5% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters5%6% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters6%31% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters31%5% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters5%8% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters8%
Fastball · 168 pitches · catcher's view
0% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters0% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters0% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters0% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters1% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters1%5% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters5%3% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters3%5% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters5%14% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters14%0% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters14% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters14%28% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters28%30% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters30%
Changeup · 79 pitches · catcher's view
0% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters0% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters0% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters3% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters3%3% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters3%13% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters13%3% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters3%0% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters3% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters3%0% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters40% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters40%23% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters23%10% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters10%
Slider · 30 pitches · catcher's view

Share of his pitches in each spot; darker is more. Last 90 days.

Will Smith · hot and cold vs LHP
xwOBA .224 shrunk (raw .000 on 1 PA) · league .243 · 2 pitches seen.224xwOBA .296 shrunk (raw – on 0 PA) · league .296 · 3 pitches seenxwOBA .218 shrunk (raw .000 on 2 PA) · league .254 · 5 pitches seen.218xwOBA .308 shrunk (raw – on 0 PA) · league .308 · 5 pitches seenxwOBA .392 shrunk (raw .412 on 4 PA) · league .385 · 12 pitches seen.392xwOBA .408 shrunk (raw .681 on 3 PA) · league .340 · 11 pitches seen.408xwOBA .325 shrunk (raw .640 on 2 PA) · league .273 · 6 pitches seen.325xwOBA .316 shrunk (raw .112 on 2 PA) · league .350 · 11 pitches seen.316xwOBA .312 shrunk (raw .351 on 4 PA) · league .299 · 12 pitches seen.312xwOBA .309 shrunk (raw .349 on 2 PA) · league .302 · 13 pitches seen.309xwOBA .450 shrunk (raw .698 on 5 PA) · league .346 · 21 pitches seen.450xwOBA .327 shrunk (raw .481 on 3 PA) · league .289 · 23 pitches seen.327xwOBA .243 shrunk (raw .186 on 3 PA) · league .257 · 21 pitches seen.243
vs LHP · 145 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 0% of 1 swings · league 19%0%Whiff 0% of 2 swings · league 21%0%Whiff 50% of 2 swings · league 23%50%Whiff 0% of 2 swings · league 9%0%Whiff 0% of 9 swings · league 10%0%Whiff 0% of 8 swings · league 11%0%Whiff 0% of 3 swings · league 17%0%Whiff 0% of 5 swings · league 14%0%Whiff 11% of 9 swings · league 16%11%Whiff 100% of 1 swings · league 25%100%Whiff – of 0 swings · league 29%Whiff 33% of 3 swings · league 48%33%Whiff 29% of 7 swings · league 34%29%
vs LHP · 145 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 50% of 2 pitches · league 63%50%Swings at 67% of 3 pitches · league 71%67%Swings at 40% of 5 pitches · league 64%40%Swings at 40% of 5 pitches · league 67%40%Swings at 75% of 12 pitches · league 76%75%Swings at 73% of 11 pitches · league 72%73%Swings at 50% of 6 pitches · league 59%50%Swings at 46% of 11 pitches · league 68%46%Swings at 75% of 12 pitches · league 66%75%Swings at 8% of 13 pitches · league 30%8%Swings at 0% of 21 pitches · league 26%0%Swings at 13% of 23 pitches · league 31%13%Swings at 33% of 21 pitches · league 41%33%
vs LHP · 145 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Will Smith against each of Matt Wilkinson's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball58%90.5+12″ / +14″.383.36813.6%15.8%210About league average vs these
Changeup23%83.8+15″ / +9″.327.31119.0%30.6%104About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Slider14%79.2-10″ / +2″.334.32019.0%27.0%75About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Cutter6%83.9-1″ / +5″.357.34221.8%26.2%111About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on left-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Will Smith · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G24.333.500.333.400.40725.0%25.0%14.3%83.492.20.0%0.0%50.0%
Last 15 G924.294.500.706.498.44112.5%25.0%10.0%79.8102.914.3%35.7%42.9%
Last 30 G1231.217.419.522.408.41312.9%22.6%11.5%80.7102.910.5%36.8%36.8%
90 days1231.217.419.522.408.41312.9%22.6%11.5%80.7102.910.5%36.8%36.8%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 19 balls in play
Ground 37%Line drive 21%Fly ball 37%Pop-up 5%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G515.538.6001.000.660.58513.3%13.3%19.4%90.2105.418.2%63.6%63.6%
Last 15 G1533.393.455.679.473.45415.2%12.1%16.9%90.4105.48.3%54.2%58.3%
Last 30 G1941.333.390.583.411.40614.6%9.8%19.2%90.2105.46.5%51.6%54.8%
90 days1941.333.390.583.411.40614.6%9.8%19.2%90.2105.46.5%51.6%54.8%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 31 balls in play
Ground 19%Line drive 26%Fly ball 42%Pop-up 13%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G519.500.579.875.605.54815.8%15.8%17.8%89.1105.415.4%53.8%61.5%
Last 15 G1557.356.474.689.483.44814.0%17.5%14.3%86.5105.410.5%47.4%52.6%
Last 30 G2072.288.403.559.410.40913.9%15.3%16.2%86.6105.48.0%46.0%48.0%
90 days2072.288.403.559.410.40913.9%15.3%16.2%86.6105.48.0%46.0%48.0%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 50 balls in play
Ground 26%Line drive 24%Fly ball 40%Pop-up 10%
Will Smith · percentile ranksvs 228 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormHot
Contact rating99Elite
Last 100 pitches100steady
wOBA / xwOBA.411 / .412results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit9/12
2+ total bases7/12
Home run3/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25RHPFastball91.6104.715.712Single
Sep 25RHPSlider85.997.312.928Single
Sep 25RHPSweeper85.395.816.698Single
Sep 23LHPSinker93.492.215.886Single
Sep 23LHPSinker93.474.6-19.042Force out
Sep 22RHPSweeper84.396.637.301Out
Sep 22RHPCurveball83.1101.9301.170Home run
Sep 20RHPSweeper86.078.7-5.080Fielder's choice
Sep 19RHPSlider85.966.629.872Single
Sep 19RHPSlider84.1105.4321.566Home run
Sep 19RHPSweeper83.377.24.195Force out
Sep 19RHPSplitter83.665.9-6.058Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25433001
Sep 23511030
Sep 22414102
Sep 20100000
Sep 19536100
Sep 18514110
Sep 16523011
Sep 14400001
Sep 13512021
Sep 12100000

Two strikes

Matt Wilkinson SF · LHPwith two strikes
Matt Wilkinson with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball58%62%19.0%22.0%18.4%
Changeup23%20%27.3%15.8%18.3%
Slider14%14%16.7%7.7%22.2%
Cutter6%5%25.0%20.0%18.3%
Will Smith bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
Will Smith with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Makes contact on his two-strike stuff more than most
With two strikesHimLeague
K%32.8%41.4%
Whiff%15.0%22.0%
Contact%85.0%78.0%
Chase%35.8%40.7%
wOBA.264.248
Whiff vs his put-away shapes12.9%19.3%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeBContact type
wOBA.381
K%19.1%
BB%13.3%
Whiff%9.4%
Barrel%6.1%
Hard-hit%29.6%
Avg EV89.3

Against left-handers, last 90 days

31 PA
wOBA.358
xwOBA vs this mix.360against pitches like his
RV/1001.30
Hard-hit%25.2%
K%18.4%
BB%12.2%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Matt WilkinsonLHP · SF vs LAD6 days' rest
2.7projected strikeouts · likely 1 to 5 · 16.5 batters over 3.8 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 71.5%72%≤34 strikeouts: 14.8%15%45 strikeouts: 8.0%8%56 strikeouts: 3.6%4%67 strikeouts: 1.4%1%78 strikeouts: 0.5%1%89+ strikeouts: 0.2%0%9+book 3.5
Over 3.5: 28% (red bars) · under: 72%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%18.2%
BB%4.0%
Whiff%7.6%
Velo87.0
BTB Stuff85
Location107
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff%
Fastball55%8290.37.5%
Changeup25%8583.78.3%
Slider14%9679.17.1%
Cutter7%8683.65.3%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 207633%12%6%.189
Sep 46212%3%41%.594
Aug 299018%6%32%.186

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Matt Wilkinson SF · LHPvsLAD lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

5 of 12 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against left-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.7%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameLAD @ SF →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Will Smith: every projection we've made →