A.J. Ewing vs Connelly Early, Sep 26, 2026

← NYM at WSH, Sep 26, 2026

11:35 AM CT · Nationals Park · lineup projected

Hitter · NYM · batting 7A.J. Ewing

Bats leftTalent grade AvgBalancedNormal

.334wOBA vs LHP.316xwOBA vs his mix3.5expected PA

Starter · WSHConnelly Early

Throws leftBTB Stuff 94Stable

3.8projected K33%K%1.0trips vs this hitter

1+ hit-1.2 pts matchup

2+ total bases-1.1 pts matchup

Home run-0.9 pts matchup

A.J. Ewing's last 40 balls in playHit (17)Out (23)Barrel zone

40% hit 95+ mph30% in the sweet spot43% fell for hits

Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
Market	BTB	Without the matchup	Matchup
1+ hit	57.8%	59.0%	-1.2
2+ total bases	30.4%	31.6%	-1.1
Home run	8.4%	9.3%	-0.9

What moves the number

1+ hit

Starter

-1.4

Pitch mix

-0.1

Bullpen

-0.1

Park

+0.4

2+ total bases

Starter

-1.2

Pitch mix

-0.1

Bullpen

-0.3

Park

+0.4

Home run

Starter

-0.8

Pitch mix

-0.0

Bullpen

-0.3

Park

+0.3

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Statcast

opens on left-handers, the hand he faces tonight

A.J. Ewing · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games

vs LHPvs RHPAll

Window	G	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	xwOBA	K%	BB%	Whiff%	Avg EV	Max EV	Barrel%	Hard-hit%	Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G	5	9	.333	.333	.333	.300	.233	11.1%	0.0%	17.6%	85.8	98.9	12.5%	37.5%	12.5%
Last 15 G	12	19	.167	.211	.167	.189	.181	15.8%	5.3%	21.2%	86.7	98.9	7.1%	42.9%	7.1%
Last 30 G	22	37	.286	.324	.314	.307	.274	13.5%	5.4%	19.0%	84.9	104.3	3.6%	39.3%	28.6%
90 days	46	88	.282	.352	.359	.339	.318	22.7%	9.1%	24.4%	87.9	105.9	10.5%	47.4%	28.1%

Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 57 balls in play

Ground 53%Line drive 18%Fly ball 25%Pop-up 5%

Window	G	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	xwOBA	K%	BB%	Whiff%	Avg EV	Max EV	Barrel%	Hard-hit%	Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G	5	10	.250	.400	.250	.400	.326	10.0%	20.0%	31.2%	80.3	98.0	0.0%	20.0%	20.0%
Last 15 G	15	41	.389	.439	.583	.464	.399	22.0%	9.8%	26.9%	89.1	107.1	7.7%	38.5%	42.3%
Last 30 G	30	87	.269	.326	.410	.334	.320	23.0%	8.0%	22.4%	86.5	107.1	5.2%	34.5%	36.2%
90 days	72	232	.238	.296	.367	.313	.300	25.4%	7.3%	22.5%	88.2	107.1	5.9%	38.6%	35.3%

Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 153 balls in play

Ground 46%Line drive 26%Fly ball 22%Pop-up 6%

Window	G	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	xwOBA	K%	BB%	Whiff%	Avg EV	Max EV	Barrel%	Hard-hit%	Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G	5	19	.294	.368	.294	.347	.277	10.5%	10.5%	24.2%	83.7	98.9	7.7%	30.8%	15.4%
Last 15 G	15	60	.315	.367	.444	.376	.329	20.0%	8.3%	25.0%	88.3	107.1	7.5%	40.0%	30.0%
Last 30 G	30	124	.274	.325	.381	.326	.306	20.2%	7.3%	21.4%	85.9	107.1	4.7%	36.0%	33.7%
90 days	75	320	.250	.311	.365	.320	.305	24.7%	7.8%	23.0%	88.2	107.1	7.1%	41.0%	33.3%

Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 210 balls in play

Ground 48%Line drive 23%Fly ball 23%Pop-up 6%

A.J. Ewing · percentile ranksvs 304 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

xwOBA40.305

Avg EV5188.2

Max EV21107.1

Barrel%557.1%

Hard-hit%6241.0%

Sweet-spot%3633.3%

K%3524.7%

BB%397.8%

Whiff%4823.0%

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormNormal

Contact rating51Average

Last 100 pitches3trending down

wOBA / xwOBA.315 / .317results in line with his contact

Last 12 games, oldest to newest

Hit8/12

2+ total bases4/12

Home run1/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
Date	Pitcher	Pitch	Velo	EV	LA	xwOBA	Result
Sep 24	RHP	Fastball	94.7	87.3	-16	.093	Out
Sep 24	RHP	Slider	85.1	79.7	39	.023	Out
Sep 24	LHP	Sweeper	79.8	98.9	28	.780	Out
Sep 23	LHP	Slider	81.5	37.1	-74	.206	Single
Sep 23	LHP	Slider	81.0	83.2	57	.025	Out
Sep 22	LHP	Sinker	93.6	92.5	-10	.244	Out
Sep 22	LHP	Slider	85.5	86.3	36	.015	Out
Sep 22	RHP	Splitter	88.3	55.0	-1	.104	Single
Sep 20	LHP	Sinker	96.1	97.1	4	.461	Single
Sep 20	RHP	Slider	87.4	98.0	13	.897	Single
Sep 19	RHP	Changeup	91.5	81.6	-9	.094	Out
Sep 19	LHP	Sinker	90.3	98.1	-6	.291	Single

Total bases, last 10 games★ home run

4★14

215

216

017

118

119

220

122

123

024

Last 10 games.
Date	PA	H	TB	HR	BB	K
Sep 24	4	0	0	0	0	0
Sep 23	4	1	1	0	1	1
Sep 22	4	1	1	0	1	0
Sep 20	2	2	2	0	0	0
Sep 19	5	1	1	0	0	1
Sep 18	4	1	1	0	0	2
Sep 17	4	0	0	0	0	2
Sep 16	4	2	2	0	0	1
Sep 15	5	2	2	0	1	1
Sep 14	4	1	4	1	1	0

Two strikes

Connelly Early WSH · LHPwith two strikes

Usage, overall to two strikesOverall Two strikes

Sweeper+18 pts

Fastball+3 pts

Sinker-5 pts

Changeup-6 pts

Slider-7 pts

Connelly Early with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
Pitch	Overall	2 strikes	Whiff%	Put-away	League put-away
Sweeper	18%	36%	75.0%	37.5%	20.5%
Fastball	20%	23%	0.0%	0.0%	18.6%
Sinker	23%	18%	0.0%	25.0%	17.7%
Changeup	20%	14%	–	0.0%	18.3%
Slider	16%	9%	50.0%	50.0%	21.6%

A.J. Ewing bats Lwith two strikes, vs this hand

A.J. Ewing with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Little two-strike history vs these shapes
With two strikes	Him	League
K%	43.8%	44.1%
Whiff%	23.9%	22.7%
Contact%	76.1%	77.3%
Chase%	34.4%	38.1%
wOBA	.239	.224
Whiff vs his put-away shapes	–	–

The hitter

season-level talent read

Talent gradeAvgBalanced type

wOBA.317

K%24.4%

BB%7.9%

Whiff%10.9%

Barrel%4.8%

Hard-hit%26.8%

Avg EV88.3

Against left-handers, last 90 days

88 PA

wOBA.334

xwOBA vs this mix.316against pitches like his

RV/100-0.37

Hard-hit%29.8%

K%23.0%

BB%7.9%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces

Connelly EarlyLHP · WSH vs NYM

3.8projected strikeouts · likely 1 to 6 · 14.2 batters over 3.3 innings

Over 3.5: 53% (red bars) · under: 47%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.

K%33.3%

BB%13.3%

Whiff%11.5%

Velo88.8

BTB Stuff94

Location100

PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff

Sinker23%10192.90.0%

Changeup20%8484.68.3%

Fastball20%10194.90.0%

Sweeper18%9784.027.3%

Slider16%8487.720.0%

Curveball3%9480.250.0%

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Connelly Early WSH · LHPvsNYM lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

1 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

1Francisco Lindor18%

2Juan Soto19%

3Bo Bichette18%

4Carson Benge27%

5Brett Baty22%

6Marcus Semien20%

7A.J. Ewing23%

8Luis Torrens19%

9Nick Morabito22%

Strikeout rate against left-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.6%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameNYM @ WSH →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.A.J. Ewing: every projection we've made →