Mets at Nationals
11:35 AM CT · Nationals Park · 63F · Crosswind 10 mph · 56% precip risk
The game
Game totals, win probability and the first inning are research only: in the backtest they don't beat the league-wide rate. Shown as projections, never as plays.
- Carry
- – vs neutral air
- Weather
- 63°F · Crosswind · roof open
- Park factor
- Runs 104 · HR 103 100 = average
- Schedule
- NYM day-after-night; WSH day-after-night
Air density from observed temperature, dew point and pressure. It shapes batted balls, not the run total directly.
| Date | Pitches | K% | Whiff% | Hard-hit% | wOBA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20 | 95 | 22% | 8% | 35% | .333 |
| Sep 14 | 83 | 26% | 14% | 22% | .220 |
| Sep 7 | 87 | 33% | 18% | 19% | .324 |
Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.
1 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight
Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.6%. Red strikes out more, blue less.
Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.
1 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight
Strikeout rate against left-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.6%. Red strikes out more, blue less.
Pitch-mix battles
each lineup against the starter it faces| Connelly Early's pitches | NYM lineup vs that pitch | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pitch | Usage | Velo | BTB Stuff | Whiff% | RV/100 | wOBA | Whiff% | Hard-hit% | Edge |
| Sinker | 23% | 92.9 | 101 | 0.0% | -3.79 | .346 | 5.8% | 34.7% | +1.27 |
| Changeup | 20% | 84.6 | 84 | 8.3% | 2.23 | .268 | 15.4% | 22.2% | -1.09 |
| Fastball | 20% | 94.9 | 101 | 0.0% | -1.52 | .310 | 9.7% | 30.7% | +0.18 |
| Sweeper | 18% | 84.0 | 97 | 27.3% | 8.86 | .221 | 14.0% | 17.8% | -2.79 |
| Slider | 16% | 87.7 | 84 | 20.0% | 5.40 | .277 | 12.8% | 25.3% | -1.25 |
| Curveball | 3% | 80.2 | 94 | 50.0% | 0.70 | .271 | 11.4% | 29.5% | -0.10 |
| Jonah Tong's pitches | WSH lineup vs that pitch | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pitch | Usage | Velo | BTB Stuff | Whiff% | RV/100 | wOBA | Whiff% | Hard-hit% | Edge |
| Fastball | 44% | 94.5 | 114 | 12.1% | 0.23 | .356 | 8.4% | 28.8% | +0.97 |
| Cutter | 23% | 90.1 | 110 | 11.3% | -2.18 | .386 | 8.6% | 26.2% | +1.56 |
| Changeup | 23% | 87.4 | 98 | 18.0% | 3.30 | .244 | 15.4% | 21.6% | -1.95 |
| Curveball | 10% | 78.7 | 81 | 15.4% | 2.08 | .309 | 11.1% | 22.1% | -0.15 |
Bullpens
No one pitched yesterday.
Ranked on a blend of K-BB% (60%) and wOBA allowed (40%) over the bullpen window. Tired arms are context: in our tests bullpen rest didn't improve run totals.
No one pitched yesterday.
Ranked on a blend of K-BB% (60%) and wOBA allowed (40%) over the bullpen window. Tired arms are context: in our tests bullpen rest didn't improve run totals.
Two strikes
how each starter finishes hitters| Pitch | Overall | 2 strikes | Whiff% | Put-away | League put-away |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fastball | 44% | 42% | 16.7% | 14.3% | 18.0% |
| Changeup | 23% | 35% | 35.0% | 27.6% | 18.6% |
| Cutter | 23% | 14% | 16.7% | 16.7% | 17.9% |
| Curveball | 10% | 10% | 60.0% | 37.5% | 20.1% |
| Pitch | Overall | 2 strikes | Whiff% | Put-away | League put-away |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sweeper | 18% | 36% | 75.0% | 37.5% | 20.5% |
| Fastball | 20% | 23% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 18.6% |
| Sinker | 23% | 18% | 0.0% | 25.0% | 17.7% |
| Changeup | 20% | 14% | – | 0.0% | 18.3% |
| Slider | 16% | 9% | 50.0% | 50.0% | 21.6% |
Mets lineup
Projected · facing Connelly Early LHP| Spot | Hitter | 1+ hit | 2+ TB | HR | PA | Matchup (1+ hit) | wOBA vs hand | Talent grade | Type | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Francisco Lindor SS · bats S | 62.1% | 38.9% | 15.0% | 4.0 | -1.3 | .314 | A | Power | Normal |
| 2 | Juan Soto DH · bats L | 60.3% | 38.8% | 16.9% | 3.9 | -1.8 | .314 | A | Power | Normal |
| 3 | Bo Bichette 3B · bats R | 67.7% | 38.9% | 9.5% | 3.8 | -1.1 | .335 | B | Balanced | Normal |
| 4 | Carson Benge RF · bats L | 63.3% | 33.6% | 10.2% | 3.8 | -1.9 | .305 | Avg | Balanced | Hot |
| 5 | Brett Baty 1B · bats L | 60.1% | 35.9% | 12.6% | 3.7 | -2.5 | .300 | A | Power | Normal |
| 6 | Marcus Semien 2B · bats R | 58.0% | 31.5% | 9.0% | 3.6 | -0.5 | .303 | C | Contact | Normal |
| 7 | A.J. Ewing CF · bats L | 57.8% | 30.4% | 8.4% | 3.5 | -1.2 | .334 | Avg | Balanced | Normal |
| 8 | Luis Torrens C · bats R | 58.9% | 35.2% | 11.8% | 3.4 | -0.4 | .339 | B | Power | Cold |
| 9 | Nick Morabito LF · bats R | 55.2% | 29.9% | 8.7% | 3.3 | -0.4 | .303 | Avg | Balanced | Normal |
Nationals lineup
Projected · facing Jonah Tong RHP| Spot | Hitter | 1+ hit | 2+ TB | HR | PA | Matchup (1+ hit) | wOBA vs hand | Talent grade | Type | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | James Wood RF · bats L | 64.3% | 42.1% | 18.9% | 4.0 | +1.0 | .396 | A | Power | Cold |
| 2 | Andrés Chaparro DH · bats R | 62.4% | 39.0% | 15.0% | 3.9 | +1.7 | .392 | C | Power | Cold |
| 3 | Brady House 3B · bats R | 63.5% | 35.1% | 9.2% | 3.8 | -1.4 | .285 | B | Power | Normal |
| 4 | CJ Abrams 2B · bats L | 61.4% | 38.6% | 15.8% | 3.8 | +1.5 | .366 | C | Balanced | Hot |
| 5 | Dylan Crews LF · bats R | 57.8% | 31.5% | 10.7% | 3.7 | -1.5 | .301 | Avg | Balanced | Hot |
| 6 | Yohandy Morales 1B · bats R | 61.3% | 35.9% | 12.8% | 3.6 | -1.3 | .351 | C | Power | Normal |
| 7 | Harry Ford C · bats R | 52.6% | 29.2% | 10.1% | 3.5 | -1.3 | .280 | D | Balanced | Normal |
| 8 | Jacob Young CF · bats R | 56.3% | 26.9% | 4.5% | 3.4 | -0.9 | .311 | C | Contact | Hot |
| 9 | Nasim Nuñez SS · bats S | 49.0% | 23.1% | 5.2% | 3.3 | -1.4 | .254 | F | Contact | Normal |