Juan Soto vs Connelly Early, Sep 26, 2026

← NYM at WSH, Sep 26, 2026

11:35 AM CT · Nationals Park · lineup projected

Hitter · NYM · batting 2Juan Soto

Bats leftTalent grade APowerNormal

.314wOBA vs LHP.319xwOBA vs his mix3.9expected PA

Starter · WSHConnelly Early

Throws leftBTB Stuff 94Stable

3.8projected K33%K%1.9trips vs this hitter

1+ hit-1.8 pts matchup

2+ total bases-2.2 pts matchup

Home run-2.3 pts matchup

Juan Soto's last 40 balls in playHit (14)Out (26)Barrel zone

50% hit 95+ mph30% in the sweet spot35% fell for hits

Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
Market	BTB	Without the matchup	Matchup
1+ hit	60.3%	62.2%	-1.8
2+ total bases	38.8%	40.9%	-2.2
Home run	16.9%	19.2%	-2.3

What moves the number

1+ hit

Starter

-2.1

Pitch mix

-0.1

Bullpen

-0.1

Park

+0.5

2+ total bases

Starter

-2.4

Pitch mix

-0.1

Bullpen

-0.3

Park

+0.6

Home run

Starter

-2.3

Pitch mix

-0.1

Bullpen

-0.4

Park

+0.5

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Statcast

opens on left-handers, the hand he faces tonight

Juan Soto · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games

vs LHPvs RHPAll

Window	G	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	xwOBA	K%	BB%	Whiff%	Avg EV	Max EV	Barrel%	Hard-hit%	Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G	5	15	.333	.467	.583	.492	.454	6.7%	20.0%	20.0%	94.3	107.8	18.2%	54.5%	9.1%
Last 15 G	14	28	.280	.357	.520	.388	.388	17.9%	10.7%	20.8%	94.4	107.8	15.0%	55.0%	20.0%
Last 30 G	23	43	.225	.279	.375	.288	.297	23.3%	7.0%	22.2%	91.7	110.0	10.0%	46.7%	20.0%
90 days	34	69	.230	.319	.361	.320	.343	17.4%	11.6%	22.0%	90.5	110.0	8.2%	40.8%	30.6%

Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 49 balls in play

Ground 35%Line drive 25%Fly ball 25%Pop-up 16%

Window	G	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	xwOBA	K%	BB%	Whiff%	Avg EV	Max EV	Barrel%	Hard-hit%	Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G	4	8	.143	.250	.143	.186	.193	37.5%	12.5%	50.0%	80.9	94.5	0.0%	0.0%	25.0%
Last 15 G	14	43	.250	.372	.500	.382	.419	16.3%	16.3%	19.4%	92.7	109.4	13.8%	41.4%	41.4%
Last 30 G	28	90	.239	.400	.451	.382	.415	12.2%	21.1%	21.2%	93.0	111.8	11.7%	46.7%	35.0%
90 days	42	130	.255	.431	.541	.424	.453	13.1%	23.8%	18.4%	92.2	111.8	15.9%	47.6%	36.6%

Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 82 balls in play

Ground 43%Line drive 18%Fly ball 24%Pop-up 15%

Window	G	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	xwOBA	K%	BB%	Whiff%	Avg EV	Max EV	Barrel%	Hard-hit%	Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G	5	23	.263	.391	.421	.379	.358	17.4%	17.4%	30.0%	90.7	107.8	13.3%	40.0%	13.3%
Last 15 G	15	71	.262	.366	.508	.384	.407	16.9%	14.1%	20.0%	93.4	109.4	14.3%	46.9%	32.7%
Last 30 G	30	133	.234	.361	.423	.352	.378	15.8%	16.5%	21.6%	92.5	111.8	11.1%	46.7%	30.0%
90 days	45	199	.245	.392	.472	.388	.415	14.6%	19.6%	19.8%	91.5	111.8	13.0%	45.0%	34.4%

Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 131 balls in play

Ground 40%Line drive 21%Fly ball 24%Pop-up 15%

Juan Soto · percentile ranksvs 304 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

xwOBA99.415

Avg EV8991.5

Max EV78111.8

Barrel%9213.0%

Hard-hit%7645.0%

Sweet-spot%4534.4%

K%8614.6%

BB%9919.6%

Whiff%6619.8%

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormNormal

Contact rating99Elite

Last 100 pitches99steady

wOBA / xwOBA.372 / .406running 34 points behind his contact

Last 12 games, oldest to newest

Hit8/12

2+ total bases5/12

Home run3/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
Date	Pitcher	Pitch	Velo	EV	LA	xwOBA	Result
Sep 24	RHP	Slider	82.5	72.0	79	.000	Out
Sep 24	LHP	Slider	84.7	73.0	85	.003	Out
Sep 24	LHP	Sinker	91.4	90.1	-37	.042	Out
Sep 23	LHP	Changeup	81.1	106.2	35	1.437	Home run
Sep 23	LHP	Sinker	88.9	78.9	-11	.059	Out
Sep 22	LHP	Slider	86.8	105.2	4	.529	Single
Sep 22	LHP	Slider	87.8	78.9	-3	.099	Single
Sep 22	RHP	Changeup	88.8	94.5	-14	.161	Out
Sep 22	LHP	Fastball	94.5	100.5	24	.835	Out
Sep 22	LHP	Changeup	87.3	92.4	33	.101	Out
Sep 20	LHP	Sinker	95.5	107.4	-9	.299	Out
Sep 20	LHP	Sinker	96.1	107.8	7	.673	Single

Total bases, last 10 games★ home run

114

215

016

017

7★18

119

120

222

4★23

024

Last 10 games.
Date	PA	H	TB	HR	BB	K
Sep 24	4	0	0	0	1	0
Sep 23	5	1	4	1	3	0
Sep 22	5	2	2	0	0	0
Sep 20	4	1	1	0	0	1
Sep 19	5	1	1	0	0	3
Sep 18	5	3	7	1	0	0
Sep 17	4	0	0	0	2	0
Sep 16	4	0	0	0	0	0
Sep 15	6	2	2	0	1	1
Sep 14	4	1	1	0	1	1

Two strikes

Connelly Early WSH · LHPwith two strikes

Usage, overall to two strikesOverall Two strikes

Sweeper+18 pts

Fastball+3 pts

Sinker-5 pts

Changeup-6 pts

Slider-7 pts

Connelly Early with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
Pitch	Overall	2 strikes	Whiff%	Put-away	League put-away
Sweeper	18%	36%	75.0%	37.5%	20.5%
Fastball	20%	23%	0.0%	0.0%	18.6%
Sinker	23%	18%	0.0%	25.0%	17.7%
Changeup	20%	14%	–	0.0%	18.3%
Slider	16%	9%	50.0%	50.0%	21.6%

Juan Soto bats Lwith two strikes, vs this hand

Juan Soto with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Little two-strike history vs these shapes
With two strikes	Him	League
K%	40.9%	44.1%
Whiff%	23.6%	22.7%
Contact%	76.4%	77.3%
Chase%	36.9%	38.1%
wOBA	.225	.224
Whiff vs his put-away shapes	–	–

The hitter

season-level talent read

Talent gradeAPower type

wOBA.389

K%16.0%

BB%18.4%

Whiff%8.4%

Barrel%8.9%

Hard-hit%30.2%

Avg EV91.6

Against left-handers, last 90 days

67 PA

wOBA.314

xwOBA vs this mix.319against pitches like his

RV/1000.06

Hard-hit%26.9%

K%18.7%

BB%18.9%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces

Connelly EarlyLHP · WSH vs NYM

3.8projected strikeouts · likely 1 to 6 · 14.2 batters over 3.3 innings

Over 3.5: 53% (red bars) · under: 47%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.

K%33.3%

BB%13.3%

Whiff%11.5%

Velo88.8

BTB Stuff94

Location100

PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff

Sinker23%10192.90.0%

Changeup20%8484.68.3%

Fastball20%10194.90.0%

Sweeper18%9784.027.3%

Slider16%8487.720.0%

Curveball3%9480.250.0%

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Connelly Early WSH · LHPvsNYM lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

1 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

1Francisco Lindor18%

2Juan Soto19%

3Bo Bichette18%

4Carson Benge27%

5Brett Baty22%

6Marcus Semien20%

7A.J. Ewing23%

8Luis Torrens19%

9Nick Morabito22%

Strikeout rate against left-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.6%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameNYM @ WSH →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Juan Soto: every projection we've made →