MLBengine v14
← NYM at WSH, Sep 26, 2026
11:35 AM CT · Nationals Park · lineup projected
Hitter · NYM · batting 8Luis Torrens
Bats rightTalent grade BPowerCold
.339wOBA vs LHP.314xwOBA vs his mix3.4expected PA
Starter · WSHConnelly Early
Throws leftBTB Stuff 94Stable
3.8projected K33%K%1.0trips vs this hitter
Luis Torrens's last 40 balls in playHit (13)Out (27)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 92.8 mph at -9°Out: 94.9 mph at -31°Out: 103.5 mph at -3°Out: 80.1 mph at 63°Out: 89.2 mph at 33°Out: 84.3 mph at 36°Single: 98.6 mph at 6°Out: 74.4 mph at 53°Single: 105.1 mph at 10°Out: 82.9 mph at -42°Home run: 104.8 mph at 23°Out: 79.2 mph at -8°Double: 101.1 mph at 19°Out: 91.1 mph at 32°Double: 102.1 mph at 21°Single: 65.5 mph at -51°Single: 105.1 mph at 4°Out: 83.3 mph at -5°Out: 47.5 mph at -62°Out: 93.1 mph at -6°Out: 97.2 mph at 39°Out: 86.0 mph at 59°Out: 103.2 mph at -6°Out: 83.7 mph at 40°Single: 95.0 mph at 15°Out: 97.1 mph at 20°Single: 96.5 mph at 5°Out: 98.1 mph at -2°Out: 83.8 mph at -1°Out: 101.6 mph at -2°Home run: 102.0 mph at 27°Out: 67.4 mph at -29°Out: 97.1 mph at 52°Home run: 104.6 mph at 26°Out: 68.4 mph at -14°Single: 80.1 mph at 6°Out: 94.3 mph at 41°Home run: 105.1 mph at 26°Out: 70.9 mph at 78°Out: 68.9 mph at -57°
45% hit 95+ mph25% in the sweet spot33% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit58.9%59.3%-0.4
2+ total bases35.2%35.0%+0.2
Home run11.8%11.4%+0.5
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-0.9
Pitch mix
-0.1
Bullpen
+0.2
Park
+0.4
2+ total bases
Starter
-0.5
Pitch mix
-0.1
Bullpen
+0.3
Park
+0.5
Home run
Starter
+0.0
Pitch mix
-0.1
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
+0.3

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Statcast

opens on left-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Luis Torrens · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G35.200.200.200.180.2260.0%0.0%16.7%91.1103.50.0%40.0%0.0%
Last 15 G813.077.077.077.069.12823.1%0.0%25.9%88.5103.50.0%30.0%0.0%
Last 30 G1936.242.306.545.360.32619.4%8.3%21.4%90.4106.87.7%46.2%26.9%
90 days2444.225.295.550.356.31315.9%9.1%18.2%89.2106.89.1%42.4%27.3%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 33 balls in play
Ground 52%Line drive 15%Fly ball 24%Pop-up 9%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G411.100.091.100.082.10254.5%0.0%24.0%90.0105.10.0%20.0%20.0%
Last 15 G1436.273.286.515.340.27733.3%2.8%13.0%91.4105.18.7%56.5%34.8%
Last 30 G2766.300.338.550.379.31722.7%6.1%15.4%89.5105.18.5%51.1%38.3%
90 days3485.289.345.500.365.32021.2%8.2%15.8%88.9105.16.7%46.7%38.3%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 60 balls in play
Ground 47%Line drive 27%Fly ball 20%Pop-up 7%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G516.133.125.133.112.14137.5%0.0%22.6%90.6105.10.0%30.0%10.0%
Last 15 G1549.217.229.391.267.23630.6%2.0%16.3%90.5105.16.1%48.5%24.2%
Last 30 G30102.280.327.548.372.32021.6%6.9%17.2%89.8106.88.2%49.3%34.2%
90 days37129.267.328.517.362.31819.4%8.5%16.5%89.0106.87.5%45.2%34.4%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 93 balls in play
Ground 48%Line drive 23%Fly ball 22%Pop-up 8%
Luis Torrens · percentile ranksvs 304 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormCold
Contact rating65Above average
Last 100 pitches4trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.360 / .331running 29 points ahead of his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit6/12
2+ total bases2/12
Home run1/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 24RHPSinker94.792.8-9.153Out
Sep 22LHPFastball93.194.9-31.075Out
Sep 22LHPChangeup85.0103.5-3.378Out
Sep 22RHPSplitter86.780.163.021Sac fly
Sep 22RHPSinker91.289.233.028Out
Sep 20LHPSlider85.184.336.024Out
Sep 20LHPSinker93.898.66.549Single
Sep 18LHPSlider86.374.453.105Out
Sep 18RHPSinker95.1105.110.869Single
Sep 16RHPSinker93.882.9-42.053Out
Sep 12RHPFastball97.7104.8231.474Home run
Sep 12LHPFastball88.079.2-8.090Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 24300002
Sep 22400000
Sep 20211000
Sep 18411002
Sep 16300002
Sep 12426101
Sep 9534001
Sep 6300001
Sep 2500011
Aug 30200000

Two strikes

Connelly Early WSH · LHPwith two strikes
Connelly Early with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Sweeper18%36%75.0%37.5%20.5%
Fastball20%23%0.0%0.0%18.6%
Sinker23%18%0.0%25.0%17.7%
Changeup20%14%–0.0%18.3%
Slider16%9%50.0%50.0%21.6%
Luis Torrens bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
Luis Torrens with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Little two-strike history vs these shapes
With two strikesHimLeague
K%42.6%41.6%
Whiff%20.3%21.7%
Contact%79.7%78.3%
Chase%42.8%40.0%
wOBA.241.245
Whiff vs his put-away shapes––

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeBPower type
wOBA.321
K%19.9%
BB%7.7%
Whiff%9.0%
Barrel%6.3%
Hard-hit%32.7%
Avg EV89.4

Against left-handers, last 90 days

44 PA
wOBA.339
xwOBA vs this mix.314against pitches like his
RV/1000.71
Hard-hit%29.4%
K%19.2%
BB%8.4%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Connelly EarlyLHP · WSH vs NYM
3.8projected strikeouts · likely 1 to 6 · 14.2 batters over 3.3 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 46.8%47%≤34 strikeouts: 19.4%19%45 strikeouts: 14.8%15%56 strikeouts: 9.5%10%67 strikeouts: 5.3%5%78 strikeouts: 2.5%3%89+ strikeouts: 1.7%2%9+book 3.5
Over 3.5: 53% (red bars) · under: 47%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%33.3%
BB%13.3%
Whiff%11.5%
Velo88.8
BTB Stuff94
Location100
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Sinker23%10192.90.0%
Changeup20%8484.68.3%
Fastball20%10194.90.0%
Sweeper18%9784.027.3%
Slider16%8487.720.0%
Curveball3%9480.250.0%

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Connelly Early WSH · LHPvsNYM lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

1 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against left-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.6%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameNYM @ WSH →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Luis Torrens: every projection we've made →