MLBengine v14
← NYM at WSH, Sep 26, 2026
11:35 AM CT · Nationals Park · lineup confirmed
Hitter · NYM · batting 6Mark Vientos
Bats rightTalent grade BBalancedNormal
.315wOBA vs LHP.315xwOBA vs his mix3.6expected PA
Starter · WSHConnelly Early
Throws leftBTB Stuff 94Stable
3.8projected K33%K%1.0trips vs this hitter
Connelly Early's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 34% usage, 94.0 mph, +10.2″ arm side, +16.0″ rise. Mark Vientos: wOBA .356 vs league .351 (about even).Fastball 34%Sinker: 19% usage, 92.6 mph, +17.8″ arm side, +7.9″ rise. Mark Vientos: wOBA .364 vs league .360 (about even).Sinker 19%Changeup: 19% usage, 83.7 mph, +11.2″ arm side, -2.5″ rise. Mark Vientos: wOBA .311 vs league .307 (about even).Changeup 19%Curveball: 13% usage, 80.2 mph, -10.0″ arm side, -9.5″ rise. Mark Vientos: wOBA .294 vs league .290 (about even).Curveball 13%Slider: 9% usage, 87.0 mph, -0.4″ arm side, +6.3″ rise. Mark Vientos: wOBA .347 vs league .343 (about even).Slider 9%Sweeper: 8% usage, 82.8 mph, -14.0″ arm side, -2.0″ rise. Mark Vientos: wOBA .300 vs league .296 (about even).Sweeper 8%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Mark Vientos's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Mark Vientos's last 32 balls in playHit (10)Out (22)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 89.7 mph at 51°Double: 102.7 mph at 13°Out: 67.8 mph at -9°Out: 91.7 mph at 52°Out: 102.4 mph at 20°Out: 103.7 mph at -11°Out: 90.1 mph at 8°Out: 98.6 mph at -25°Double: 92.3 mph at 4°Single: 104.9 mph at -3°Out: 67.4 mph at 72°Out: 83.3 mph at -56°Single: 105.9 mph at 12°Out: 79.3 mph at -36°Out: 76.5 mph at -41°Out: 101.1 mph at 10°Single: 101.6 mph at -8°Home run: 99.6 mph at 33°Out: 82.5 mph at 56°Single: 100.4 mph at 9°Out: 88.0 mph at 79°Home run: 102.7 mph at 27°Out: 90.0 mph at -12°Out: 95.0 mph at -17°Out: 87.9 mph at -30°Out: 93.3 mph at 44°Home run: 104.1 mph at 30°Out: 90.3 mph at 56°Single: 100.8 mph at 15°Out: 97.7 mph at 41°Out: 95.4 mph at 64°Out: 89.1 mph at -11°
50% hit 95+ mph28% in the sweet spot31% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit56.9%56.5%+0.4
2+ total bases36.1%35.2%+0.9
Home run13.0%11.9%+1.1
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-0.3
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.3
Park
+0.4
2+ total bases
Starter
+0.1
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.4
Park
+0.5
Home run
Starter
+0.5
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.2
Park
+0.3

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Mark Vientos hits
Mark Vientos · hot and cold vs LHP
xwOBA .347 shrunk (raw 1.594 on 1 PA) · league .243 · 4 pitches seen.347xwOBA .273 shrunk (raw .000 on 1 PA) · league .296 · 5 pitches seen.273xwOBA .270 shrunk (raw .368 on 2 PA) · league .254 · 8 pitches seen.270xwOBA .265 shrunk (raw .007 on 2 PA) · league .308 · 5 pitches seen.265xwOBA .388 shrunk (raw .408 on 2 PA) · league .385 · 9 pitches seen.388xwOBA .316 shrunk (raw .276 on 7 PA) · league .340 · 14 pitches seen.316xwOBA .273 shrunk (raw – on 0 PA) · league .273 · 5 pitches seenxwOBA .301 shrunk (raw .106 on 3 PA) · league .350 · 8 pitches seen.301xwOBA .329 shrunk (raw .420 on 4 PA) · league .299 · 7 pitches seen.329xwOBA .332 shrunk (raw .698 on 1 PA) · league .302 · 7 pitches seen.332xwOBA .320 shrunk (raw .214 on 3 PA) · league .346 · 21 pitches seen.320xwOBA .320 shrunk (raw .374 on 7 PA) · league .289 · 27 pitches seen.320xwOBA .227 shrunk (raw .048 on 2 PA) · league .257 · 20 pitches seen.227
vs LHP · 140 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 0% of 4 swings · league 19%0%Whiff 25% of 4 swings · league 21%25%Whiff 17% of 6 swings · league 23%17%Whiff 0% of 3 swings · league 9%0%Whiff 17% of 6 swings · league 10%17%Whiff 17% of 12 swings · league 11%17%Whiff 0% of 2 swings · league 17%0%Whiff 0% of 5 swings · league 14%0%Whiff 25% of 4 swings · league 16%25%Whiff – of 0 swings · league 25%Whiff 67% of 6 swings · league 29%67%Whiff 67% of 6 swings · league 48%67%Whiff 43% of 7 swings · league 34%43%
vs LHP · 140 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 100% of 4 pitches · league 63%100%Swings at 80% of 5 pitches · league 71%80%Swings at 75% of 8 pitches · league 64%75%Swings at 60% of 5 pitches · league 67%60%Swings at 67% of 9 pitches · league 76%67%Swings at 86% of 14 pitches · league 72%86%Swings at 40% of 5 pitches · league 59%40%Swings at 63% of 8 pitches · league 68%63%Swings at 57% of 7 pitches · league 66%57%Swings at 0% of 7 pitches · league 30%0%Swings at 29% of 21 pitches · league 26%29%Swings at 22% of 27 pitches · league 31%22%Swings at 35% of 20 pitches · league 41%35%
vs LHP · 140 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Mark Vientos against each of Connelly Early's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball34%94.0+10″ / +16″.356.35125.4%19.0%115About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Sinker19%92.6+18″ / +8″.364.36019.3%14.8%92About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Changeup19%83.7+11″ / -3″.311.30735.2%29.1%26About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Curveball13%80.2-10″ / -10″.294.29033.4%29.9%38About league average vs these
Slider9%87.0-0″ / +6″.347.34328.1%24.7%77About league average vs these
Sweeper8%82.8-14″ / -2″.300.29634.4%30.6%32About league average vs these
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on left-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Mark Vientos · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G514.083.143.167.139.23828.6%7.1%33.3%92.2103.70.0%44.4%33.3%
Last 15 G1230.160.267.440.298.31526.7%13.3%25.0%92.4103.75.6%50.0%33.3%
Last 30 G1435.167.257.500.313.31828.6%11.4%26.2%92.7104.19.5%47.6%33.3%
90 days1435.167.257.500.313.31828.6%11.4%26.2%92.7104.19.5%47.6%33.3%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 21 balls in play
Ground 57%Line drive 14%Fly ball 14%Pop-up 14%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G23.667.6671.000.717.2800.0%0.0%0.0%88.2104.90.0%33.3%0.0%
Last 15 G710.444.500.556.465.28410.0%0.0%31.2%92.0105.90.0%37.5%12.5%
Last 30 G916.333.375.400.347.23325.0%0.0%37.5%93.6105.90.0%54.5%18.2%
90 days916.333.375.400.347.23325.0%0.0%37.5%93.6105.90.0%54.5%18.2%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 11 balls in play
Ground 27%Line drive 18%Fly ball 18%Pop-up 36%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G517.200.235.333.241.24523.5%5.9%29.0%91.2104.90.0%41.7%25.0%
Last 15 G1540.235.325.471.340.30722.5%10.0%26.4%92.2105.93.8%46.2%26.9%
Last 30 G1851.222.294.467.324.29227.5%7.8%29.2%93.0105.96.2%50.0%28.1%
90 days1851.222.294.467.324.29227.5%7.8%29.2%93.0105.96.2%50.0%28.1%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 32 balls in play
Ground 47%Line drive 16%Fly ball 16%Pop-up 22%
FormNormal
Contact rating26Below average
Last 100 pitches13trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.326 / .292running 34 points ahead of his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit6/12
2+ total bases3/12
Home run1/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25LHPCurveball83.089.751.022Sac fly
Sep 25LHPCurveball82.0102.713.904Double
Sep 23LHPChangeup81.367.8-9.048Out
Sep 23LHPFastball88.691.752.009Out
Sep 23LHPChangeup84.0102.420.642Out
Sep 22LHPCurveball80.8103.7-11.216Out
Sep 20LHPChangeup87.690.18.524Out
Sep 20LHPSinker96.098.6-25.072Out
Sep 20RHPSweeper81.092.34.483Double
Sep 18RHPSinker92.0104.9-3.358Single
Sep 18RHPSinker93.567.472.000Out
Sep 18LHPSinker91.583.3-56.192Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25312001
Sep 23400001
Sep 22200001
Sep 20412001
Sep 18411010
Sep 17211001
Sep 14100001
Sep 11400021
Sep 6200001
Sep 4425100

Two strikes

Connelly Early WSH · LHPwith two strikes
Connelly Early with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Sweeper18%36%75.0%37.5%21.2%
Fastball20%23%0.0%0.0%18.4%
Sinker23%18%0.0%25.0%17.8%
Changeup20%14%–0.0%18.3%
Slider16%9%50.0%50.0%22.2%
Mark Vientos bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
Mark Vientos with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Little two-strike history vs these shapes
With two strikesHimLeague
K%46.7%41.4%
Whiff%25.9%22.0%
Contact%74.1%78.0%
Chase%43.2%40.7%
wOBA.245.248
Whiff vs his put-away shapes––

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeBBalanced type
wOBA.315
K%24.9%
BB%7.1%
Whiff%11.1%
Barrel%6.0%
Hard-hit%31.5%
Avg EV91.0

Against left-handers, last 90 days

35 PA
wOBA.315
xwOBA vs this mix.315against pitches like his
RV/100-0.29
Hard-hit%27.4%
K%25.7%
BB%7.9%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Connelly EarlyLHP · WSH vs NYM88 days' rest
3.8projected strikeouts · likely 1 to 6 · 14.2 batters over 3.3 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 47.1%47%≤34 strikeouts: 19.4%19%45 strikeouts: 14.7%15%56 strikeouts: 9.4%9%67 strikeouts: 5.2%5%78 strikeouts: 2.5%3%89+ strikeouts: 1.7%2%9+book 3.5
Over 3.5: 53% (red bars) · under: 47%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%33.3%
BB%13.3%
Whiff%11.5%
Velo88.8
BTB Stuff94
Location100
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff%
Sinker23%10192.90.0%
Changeup20%8484.68.3%
Fastball20%10194.90.0%
Sweeper18%9784.027.3%
Slider16%8487.720.0%
Curveball3%9480.250.0%

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Connelly Early WSH · LHPvsNYM lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

4 of 10 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against left-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.7%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameNYM @ WSH →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Mark Vientos: every projection we've made →