MLBengine v14
← NYM at WSH, Sep 26, 2026
11:35 AM CT · Nationals Park · lineup confirmed
Hitter · NYM · batting 10Ronny Mauricio
Switch hitterTalent grade AvgBalancedNormal
.294wOBA vs LHP.296xwOBA vs his mix3.6expected PA
Starter · WSHConnelly Early
Throws leftBTB Stuff 94Stable
3.8projected K33%K%1.0trips vs this hitter
Connelly Early's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 34% usage, 94.0 mph, +10.2″ arm side, +16.0″ rise. Ronny Mauricio: wOBA .324 vs league .351 (pitcher's edge).Fastball 34%Sinker: 19% usage, 92.6 mph, +17.8″ arm side, +7.9″ rise. Ronny Mauricio: wOBA .333 vs league .360 (pitcher's edge).Sinker 19%Changeup: 19% usage, 83.7 mph, +11.2″ arm side, -2.5″ rise. Ronny Mauricio: wOBA .280 vs league .307 (pitcher's edge).Changeup 19%Curveball: 13% usage, 80.2 mph, -10.0″ arm side, -9.5″ rise. Ronny Mauricio: wOBA .263 vs league .290 (pitcher's edge).Curveball 13%Slider: 9% usage, 87.0 mph, -0.4″ arm side, +6.3″ rise. Ronny Mauricio: wOBA .316 vs league .343 (pitcher's edge).Slider 9%Sweeper: 8% usage, 82.8 mph, -14.0″ arm side, -2.0″ rise. Ronny Mauricio: wOBA .269 vs league .296 (pitcher's edge).Sweeper 8%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Ronny Mauricio's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Ronny Mauricio's last 7 balls in playHit (1)Out (6)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 63.6 mph at 3°Out: 68.4 mph at 7°Out: 93.4 mph at -27°Single: 108.7 mph at 3°Out: 79.9 mph at 41°Out: 87.4 mph at 27°Out: 89.7 mph at 70°
14% hit 95+ mph14% in the sweet spot14% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit52.9%53.1%-0.2
2+ total bases30.6%30.6%-0.1
Home run8.8%9.0%-0.1
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-0.7
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.2
Park
+0.4
2+ total bases
Starter
-0.6
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
+0.4
Home run
Starter
-0.3
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
+0.2

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Ronny Mauricio hits
Ronny Mauricio · hot and cold vs LHP
xwOBA .227 shrunk (raw .041 on 1 PA) · league .243 · 1 pitches seen.227xwOBA .296 shrunk (raw – on 0 PA) · league .296 · 1 pitches seenxwOBA .254 shrunk (raw – on 0 PA) · league .254 · 0 pitches seenxwOBA .308 shrunk (raw – on 0 PA) · league .308 · 0 pitches seenxwOBA .385 shrunk (raw – on 0 PA) · league .385 · 0 pitches seenxwOBA .314 shrunk (raw .000 on 1 PA) · league .340 · 3 pitches seen.314xwOBA .273 shrunk (raw – on 0 PA) · league .273 · 1 pitches seenxwOBA .350 shrunk (raw – on 0 PA) · league .350 · 0 pitches seenxwOBA .299 shrunk (raw – on 0 PA) · league .299 · 0 pitches seenxwOBA .302 shrunk (raw – on 0 PA) · league .302 · 1 pitches seenxwOBA .346 shrunk (raw – on 0 PA) · league .346 · 2 pitches seenxwOBA .289 shrunk (raw – on 0 PA) · league .289 · 3 pitches seenxwOBA .237 shrunk (raw .000 on 1 PA) · league .257 · 2 pitches seen.237
vs LHP · 14 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 0% of 1 swings · league 19%0%Whiff – of 0 swings · league 21%Whiff – of 0 swings · league 23%Whiff – of 0 swings · league 9%Whiff – of 0 swings · league 10%Whiff 100% of 1 swings · league 11%100%Whiff – of 0 swings · league 17%Whiff – of 0 swings · league 14%Whiff – of 0 swings · league 16%Whiff – of 0 swings · league 25%Whiff – of 0 swings · league 29%Whiff 100% of 1 swings · league 48%100%Whiff 100% of 1 swings · league 34%100%
vs LHP · 14 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 100% of 1 pitches · league 63%100%Swings at 0% of 1 pitches · league 71%0%Swings at – of 0 pitches · league 64%Swings at – of 0 pitches · league 67%Swings at – of 0 pitches · league 76%Swings at 33% of 3 pitches · league 72%33%Swings at 0% of 1 pitches · league 59%0%Swings at – of 0 pitches · league 68%Swings at – of 0 pitches · league 66%Swings at 0% of 1 pitches · league 30%0%Swings at 0% of 2 pitches · league 26%0%Swings at 33% of 3 pitches · league 31%33%Swings at 50% of 2 pitches · league 41%50%
vs LHP · 14 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Ronny Mauricio against each of Connelly Early's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball34%94.0+10″ / +16″.324.35127.0%19.0%19About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Sinker19%92.6+18″ / +8″.333.36021.1%14.8%16About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Changeup19%83.7+11″ / -3″.280.30737.0%29.1%8About league average vs these
Curveball13%80.2-10″ / -10″.263.29040.3%29.9%14About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Slider9%87.0-0″ / +6″.316.34334.2%24.7%13About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Sweeper8%82.8-14″ / -2″.269.29641.3%30.6%13About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on left-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Ronny Mauricio · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G22.000.000.000.000.02050.0%0.0%66.7%79.979.90.0%0.0%0.0%
Last 15 G33.000.000.000.000.01466.7%0.0%75.0%79.979.90.0%0.0%0.0%
Last 30 G33.000.000.000.000.01466.7%0.0%75.0%79.979.90.0%0.0%0.0%
90 days33.000.000.000.000.01466.7%0.0%75.0%79.979.90.0%0.0%0.0%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 1 balls in play
Ground 0%Line drive 0%Fly ball 100%Pop-up 0%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G410.125.300.125.230.24130.0%10.0%21.1%84.3108.70.0%20.0%20.0%
Last 15 G511.111.273.111.209.21927.3%9.1%20.0%85.2108.70.0%16.7%16.7%
Last 30 G511.111.273.111.209.21927.3%9.1%20.0%85.2108.70.0%16.7%16.7%
90 days511.111.273.111.209.21927.3%9.1%20.0%85.2108.70.0%16.7%16.7%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 6 balls in play
Ground 67%Line drive 0%Fly ball 17%Pop-up 17%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G512.100.250.100.192.20433.3%8.3%27.3%83.6108.70.0%16.7%16.7%
Last 15 G614.083.214.083.164.17535.7%7.1%29.2%84.4108.70.0%14.3%14.3%
Last 30 G614.083.214.083.164.17535.7%7.1%29.2%84.4108.70.0%14.3%14.3%
90 days614.083.214.083.164.17535.7%7.1%29.2%84.4108.70.0%14.3%14.3%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 7 balls in play
Ground 57%Line drive 0%Fly ball 29%Pop-up 14%
FormNormal
Contact rating–percentile of xwOBA
Last 100 pitches–
wOBA / xwOBA.166 / .178results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit1/6
2+ total bases0/6
Home run0/6

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 7 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 19RHPFastball97.463.63.094Force out
Jul 6RHPCurveball69.268.47.185Force out
Jul 6RHPFastball93.893.4-27.116Out
Jul 6RHPFastball94.4108.73.489Single
Jul 6LHPFastball92.679.941.041Out
Jun 29RHPSinker83.687.427.098Out
Jun 28RHPFastball97.989.770.004Out
Last 6 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 19400011
Jul 6411000
Jul 4100001
Jul 1100001
Jun 29200001
Jun 28200001

Two strikes

Connelly Early WSH · LHPwith two strikes
Connelly Early with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Sweeper18%36%75.0%37.5%21.2%
Fastball20%23%0.0%0.0%18.4%
Sinker23%18%0.0%25.0%17.8%
Changeup20%14%–0.0%18.3%
Slider16%9%50.0%50.0%22.2%
Ronny Mauricio bats Swith two strikes, vs this hand
Ronny Mauricio with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Little two-strike history vs these shapes
With two strikesHimLeague
K%50.7%41.4%
Whiff%29.8%22.0%
Contact%70.2%78.0%
Chase%52.6%40.7%
wOBA.211.248
Whiff vs his put-away shapes––

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeAvgBalanced type
wOBA.308
K%28.4%
BB%8.1%
Whiff%10.8%
Barrel%4.7%
Hard-hit%25.4%
Avg EV90.2

Against left-handers, last 90 days

3 PA
wOBA.294
xwOBA vs this mix.296against pitches like his
RV/100-0.46
Hard-hit%23.9%
K%25.3%
BB%7.8%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Connelly EarlyLHP · WSH vs NYM88 days' rest
3.8projected strikeouts · likely 1 to 6 · 14.2 batters over 3.3 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 47.1%47%≤34 strikeouts: 19.4%19%45 strikeouts: 14.7%15%56 strikeouts: 9.4%9%67 strikeouts: 5.2%5%78 strikeouts: 2.5%3%89+ strikeouts: 1.7%2%9+book 3.5
Over 3.5: 53% (red bars) · under: 47%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%33.3%
BB%13.3%
Whiff%11.5%
Velo88.8
BTB Stuff94
Location100
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff%
Sinker23%10192.90.0%
Changeup20%8484.68.3%
Fastball20%10194.90.0%
Sweeper18%9784.027.3%
Slider16%8487.720.0%
Curveball3%9480.250.0%

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Connelly Early WSH · LHPvsNYM lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

4 of 10 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against left-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.7%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameNYM @ WSH →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Ronny Mauricio: every projection we've made →