MLBengine v14
← PIT at DET, Sep 26, 2026
12:10 PM CT · Comerica Park · lineup confirmed
Hitter · PIT · batting 3Bryan Reynolds
Switch hitterTalent grade BPowerCold
.319wOBA vs RHP.346xwOBA vs his mix3.8expected PA
Starter · DETJustin Verlander
Throws rightStable
4.1projected K–K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Justin Verlander's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 49% usage, 94.3 mph, +8.9″ arm side, +19.0″ rise. Bryan Reynolds: wOBA .378 vs league .351 (hitter's edge).Fastball 49%Slider: 25% usage, 87.2 mph, -4.3″ arm side, +4.8″ rise. Bryan Reynolds: wOBA .359 vs league .335 (hitter's edge).Slider 25%Curveball: 19% usage, 78.4 mph, -7.0″ arm side, -12.7″ rise. Bryan Reynolds: wOBA .321 vs league .297 (hitter's edge).Curveball 19%Changeup: 6% usage, 84.8 mph, +14.0″ arm side, +9.5″ rise. Bryan Reynolds: wOBA .337 vs league .313 (hitter's edge).Changeup 6%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Bryan Reynolds's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Bryan Reynolds's last 40 balls in playHit (10)Out (30)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 101.9 mph at -5°Out: 100.4 mph at 19°Out: 101.2 mph at 17°Out: 92.1 mph at 37°Out: 46.5 mph at -51°Double: 96.1 mph at 16°Out: 97.7 mph at 48°Single: 73.7 mph at 24°Out: 101.3 mph at 24°Out: 87.8 mph at 32°Out: 71.6 mph at -3°Out: 81.0 mph at -55°Double: 99.5 mph at 2°Out: 49.5 mph at -64°Double: 98.4 mph at -4°Out: 90.8 mph at -5°Out: 80.0 mph at -49°Double: 97.7 mph at 18°Out: 89.8 mph at 30°Out: 88.3 mph at 66°Out: 79.5 mph at -25°Out: 93.5 mph at -11°Out: 74.8 mph at 74°Single: 99.3 mph at -2°Out: 91.1 mph at 44°Single: 99.5 mph at -4°Out: 82.0 mph at -30°Single: 101.5 mph at 5°Out: 98.7 mph at -2°Home run: 99.6 mph at 28°Out: 72.0 mph at -12°Out: 97.7 mph at 28°Out: 104.7 mph at 17°Out: 97.3 mph at 26°Out: 96.8 mph at -11°Out: 100.3 mph at 31°Out: 92.4 mph at 23°Out: 82.1 mph at 5°Out: 94.3 mph at 43°Double: 99.5 mph at 3°
50% hit 95+ mph35% in the sweet spot25% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit60.1%58.5%+1.6
2+ total bases39.1%37.4%+1.7
Home run13.4%11.9%+1.5
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+1.6
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
+0.0
2+ total bases
Starter
+1.7
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
+0.1
Home run
Starter
+1.5
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
+0.1

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Bryan Reynolds hits
Bryan Reynolds · hot and cold vs RHP
xwOBA .339 shrunk (raw .451 on 7 PA) · league .274 · 32 pitches seen.339xwOBA .295 shrunk (raw .285 on 15 PA) · league .307 · 41 pitches seen.295xwOBA .346 shrunk (raw .487 on 7 PA) · league .263 · 19 pitches seen.346xwOBA .431 shrunk (raw .485 on 20 PA) · league .342 · 69 pitches seen.431xwOBA .443 shrunk (raw .471 on 24 PA) · league .386 · 48 pitches seen.443xwOBA .360 shrunk (raw .392 on 15 PA) · league .321 · 32 pitches seen.360xwOBA .248 shrunk (raw .216 on 22 PA) · league .308 · 52 pitches seen.248xwOBA .327 shrunk (raw .314 on 22 PA) · league .351 · 53 pitches seen.327xwOBA .235 shrunk (raw .158 on 9 PA) · league .292 · 41 pitches seen.235xwOBA .386 shrunk (raw .394 on 13 PA) · league .377 · 118 pitches seen.386xwOBA .290 shrunk (raw .313 on 8 PA) · league .274 · 31 pitches seen.290xwOBA .261 shrunk (raw .260 on 22 PA) · league .263 · 137 pitches seen.261xwOBA .343 shrunk (raw .377 on 24 PA) · league .274 · 157 pitches seen.343
vs RHP · 830 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 28% of 18 swings · league 22%28%Whiff 18% of 39 swings · league 20%18%Whiff 19% of 16 swings · league 19%19%Whiff 6% of 48 swings · league 10%6%Whiff 5% of 41 swings · league 9%5%Whiff 4% of 24 swings · league 11%4%Whiff 13% of 30 swings · league 14%13%Whiff 15% of 41 swings · league 13%15%Whiff 33% of 24 swings · league 17%33%Whiff 57% of 21 swings · league 28%57%Whiff 8% of 12 swings · league 24%8%Whiff 41% of 39 swings · league 32%41%Whiff 80% of 40 swings · league 49%80%
vs RHP · 830 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 56% of 32 pitches · league 62%56%Swings at 95% of 41 pitches · league 72%95%Swings at 84% of 19 pitches · league 66%84%Swings at 70% of 69 pitches · league 70%70%Swings at 85% of 48 pitches · league 76%85%Swings at 75% of 32 pitches · league 70%75%Swings at 58% of 52 pitches · league 65%58%Swings at 77% of 53 pitches · league 68%77%Swings at 59% of 41 pitches · league 60%59%Swings at 18% of 118 pitches · league 24%18%Swings at 39% of 31 pitches · league 34%39%Swings at 28% of 137 pitches · league 40%28%Swings at 26% of 157 pitches · league 32%26%
vs RHP · 830 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Bryan Reynolds against each of Justin Verlander's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball49%94.3+9″ / +19″.378.35118.2%19.3%579About league average vs these
Slider25%87.2-4″ / +5″.359.33531.1%24.7%418About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Curveball19%78.4-7″ / -13″.321.29732.9%25.9%185About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Changeup6%84.8+14″ / +10″.337.31329.1%26.0%346About league average vs these
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Bryan Reynolds · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G513.200.333.300.354.36623.1%15.4%41.2%84.7101.90.0%50.0%33.3%
Last 15 G1535.161.235.258.272.27725.7%8.6%24.2%90.4104.74.8%47.6%28.6%
Last 30 G3075.258.324.424.347.40320.0%8.0%22.5%93.5109.113.7%56.9%43.1%
90 days70210.222.325.372.320.35425.7%11.4%25.4%90.6111.511.9%53.2%41.3%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 126 balls in play
Ground 42%Line drive 27%Fly ball 23%Pop-up 8%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G35.000.400.000.280.47620.0%40.0%10.0%100.8101.20.0%100.0%100.0%
Last 15 G1227.174.296.348.291.30818.5%11.1%23.0%89.1101.311.1%50.0%44.4%
Last 30 G2454.217.333.304.297.33218.5%13.0%24.5%89.0107.75.6%47.2%50.0%
90 days56127.237.315.342.306.30623.6%8.7%26.7%89.9113.28.4%42.2%42.2%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 83 balls in play
Ground 43%Line drive 24%Fly ball 24%Pop-up 8%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G518.154.353.231.332.39922.2%22.2%29.6%88.7101.90.0%62.5%50.0%
Last 15 G1562.167.262.296.280.29122.6%9.7%23.6%89.8104.77.7%48.7%35.9%
Last 30 G30129.241.328.375.326.37319.4%10.1%23.4%91.6109.110.3%52.9%46.0%
90 days77337.228.321.361.315.33624.9%10.4%25.9%90.3113.210.5%48.8%41.6%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 209 balls in play
Ground 43%Line drive 26%Fly ball 23%Pop-up 8%
Bryan Reynolds · percentile ranksvs 228 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormCold
Contact rating74Above average
Last 100 pitches85trending up
wOBA / xwOBA.312 / .340running 29 points behind his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit6/12
2+ total bases4/12
Home run0/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25RHPFastball97.6101.9-5.380Out
Sep 23LHPSinker94.2100.419.428Out
Sep 23LHPFastball94.8101.217.557Out
Sep 22RHPSlider89.292.137.061Out
Sep 22RHPFastball96.046.5-51.278Out
Sep 22RHPCutter92.896.116.698Double
Sep 20RHPChangeup78.897.748.032Out
Sep 20RHPFastball92.673.724.848Single
Sep 19LHPCurveball83.2101.324.835Out
Sep 19LHPCurveball81.187.832.052Out
Sep 19RHPChangeup85.571.6-3.063Force out
Sep 18RHPChangeup84.381.0-55.246Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25400012
Sep 24100010
Sep 23400011
Sep 22512000
Sep 20411011
Sep 19400001
Sep 18524001
Sep 17512000
Sep 16400002
Sep 15400002

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeBPower type
wOBA.316
K%25.0%
BB%10.1%
Whiff%12.4%
Barrel%6.4%
Hard-hit%30.0%
Avg EV90.3

Against right-handers, last 90 days

210 PA
wOBA.319
xwOBA vs this mix.346against pitches like his
RV/100-0.03
Hard-hit%31.1%
K%25.4%
BB%10.3%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Justin VerlanderRHP · DET vs PIT
4.1projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 7 · 19.4 batters over 4.6 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 42.4%42%≤34 strikeouts: 19.4%19%45 strikeouts: 15.8%16%56 strikeouts: 10.6%11%67 strikeouts: 6.2%6%78 strikeouts: 3.2%3%89+ strikeouts: 2.4%2%9+book 4.5
Over 4.5: 38% (red bars) · under: 62%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%–
BB%–
Whiff%–
Velo–
BTB Stuff–
Location–

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Justin Verlander DET · RHPvsPIT lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

5 of 12 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.7%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gamePIT @ DET →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Bryan Reynolds: every projection we've made →