The game
Game totals, win probability and the first inning are research only: in the backtest they don't beat the league-wide rate. Shown as projections, never as plays.
- Carry
- – vs neutral air
- Weather
- 58°F · Crosswind · roof open
- Park factor
- Runs 100 · HR 101 100 = average
- Schedule
- PIT day-after-night; DET day-after-night
Air density from observed temperature, dew point and pressure. It shapes batted balls, not the run total directly.
PIT starter not announced yet.
Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.
2 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight
Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.6%. Red strikes out more, blue less.
Bullpens
No one pitched yesterday.
Ranked on a blend of K-BB% (60%) and wOBA allowed (40%) over the bullpen window. Tired arms are context: in our tests bullpen rest didn't improve run totals.
No one pitched yesterday.
Ranked on a blend of K-BB% (60%) and wOBA allowed (40%) over the bullpen window. Tired arms are context: in our tests bullpen rest didn't improve run totals.
Pirates lineup
Projected · facing Justin Verlander RHP| Spot | Hitter | 1+ hit | 2+ TB | HR | PA | Matchup (1+ hit) | wOBA vs hand | Talent grade | Type | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Oneil Cruz CF · bats L | 60.3% | 36.5% | 16.2% | 4.0 | +1.0 | .429 | A | Balanced | Hot |
| 2 | Konnor Griffin SS · bats R | 63.4% | 35.4% | 7.8% | 3.9 | +0.3 | .276 | Avg | Balanced | Normal |
| 3 | Brandon Lowe 2B · bats L | 63.8% | 38.7% | 16.3% | 3.8 | +0.7 | .371 | B | Power | Hot |
| 4 | Ryan O'Hearn DH · bats L | 61.3% | 36.7% | 12.2% | 3.8 | +0.5 | .375 | B | Balanced | Normal |
| 5 | Nick Gonzales 3B · bats R | 67.3% | 35.2% | 5.7% | 3.7 | +0.3 | .373 | B | Contact | Normal |
| 6 | Ronny Simon RF · bats S | 62.2% | 33.5% | 8.4% | 3.6 | +0.3 | .310 | F | Balanced | Normal |
| 7 | Spencer Horwitz 1B · bats L | 57.9% | 28.7% | 5.6% | 3.5 | +0.4 | .217 | F | Balanced | Normal |
| 8 | Jake Mangum LF · bats S | 57.1% | 27.4% | 5.2% | 3.4 | +0.3 | .309 | F | Balanced | Hot |
| 9 | Henry Davis C · bats R | 49.8% | 26.0% | 8.5% | 3.3 | +0.3 | .323 | F | Balanced | Normal |
Tigers lineup
Projected · facing TBD| Spot | Hitter | 1+ hit | 2+ TB | HR | PA | Matchup (1+ hit) | wOBA vs hand | Talent grade | Type | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kevin McGonigle 3B · bats L | 67.0% | 40.3% | 14.0% | 4.0 | -0.1 | – | — | — | Normal |
| 2 | Hao-Yu Lee DH · bats R | 61.5% | 36.2% | 12.4% | 3.9 | -0.4 | – | — | — | Normal |
| 3 | Ben Malgeri RF · bats R | 57.3% | 32.8% | 9.7% | 3.8 | -0.4 | – | — | — | Normal |
| 4 | Riley Greene LF · bats L | 63.3% | 43.9% | 21.9% | 3.8 | -0.2 | – | — | — | Normal |
| 5 | Dillon Dingler C · bats R | 61.3% | 34.3% | 10.0% | 3.7 | -0.4 | – | — | — | Normal |
| 6 | Max Clark CF · bats L | 61.6% | 31.8% | 7.9% | 3.6 | -0.3 | – | — | — | Normal |
| 7 | Spencer Torkelson 1B · bats R | 53.5% | 31.1% | 13.6% | 3.5 | -0.4 | – | — | — | Normal |
| 8 | John Peck SS · bats R | 53.2% | 28.1% | 8.5% | 3.4 | -0.4 | – | — | — | Normal |
| 9 | Zach McKinstry 2B · bats L | 56.0% | 27.5% | 4.2% | 3.3 | -0.3 | – | — | — | Normal |