← Sep 26, 2026 slate

Pirates at Tigers

12:10 PM CT · Comerica Park · 58F · Crosswind 6 mph

The game

PIT runs4.1win 49%
DET runs4.3win 52%
Total8.4book line 8.0
No run, 1st inning53%research only

Game totals, win probability and the first inning are research only: in the backtest they don't beat the league-wide rate. Shown as projections, never as plays.

Park and air
Carry
– vs neutral air
Weather
58°F · Crosswind · roof open
Park factor
Runs 100 · HR 101 100 = average
Schedule
PIT day-after-night; DET day-after-night

Air density from observed temperature, dew point and pressure. It shapes batted balls, not the run total directly.

PIT starter not announced yet.

DET starter
Justin VerlanderRHP · DET vs PIT
4.1projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 7 · 19.4 batters over 4.6 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 42.2%42%≤34 strikeouts: 19.5%19%45 strikeouts: 15.8%16%56 strikeouts: 10.7%11%67 strikeouts: 6.2%6%78 strikeouts: 3.2%3%89+ strikeouts: 2.4%2%9+book 4.5
Over 4.5: 38% (red bars) · under: 62%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%–
BB%–
Whiff%–
Velo–
BTB Stuff–
Location–

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Justin Verlander DET · RHPvsPIT lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

2 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.6%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

Bullpens

Pirates bullpen#7 of 30
K%23.7%
BB%8.9%
K-BB%14.8%
SwStr%10.6%
wOBA allowed.290
Arms available18 / 18

No one pitched yesterday.

Ranked on a blend of K-BB% (60%) and wOBA allowed (40%) over the bullpen window. Tired arms are context: in our tests bullpen rest didn't improve run totals.

Tigers bullpen#19 of 30
K%19.6%
BB%9.9%
K-BB%9.7%
SwStr%10.2%
wOBA allowed.306
Arms available19 / 19

No one pitched yesterday.

Ranked on a blend of K-BB% (60%) and wOBA allowed (40%) over the bullpen window. Tired arms are context: in our tests bullpen rest didn't improve run totals.

Pirates lineup

Projected · facing Justin Verlander RHP
SpotHitter1+ hit2+ TBHRPAMatchup (1+ hit)wOBA vs handTalent gradeTypeForm
1Oneil Cruz CF · bats L60.3%36.5%16.2%4.0+1.0.429ABalancedHot
2Konnor Griffin SS · bats R63.4%35.4%7.8%3.9+0.3.276AvgBalancedNormal
3Brandon Lowe 2B · bats L63.8%38.7%16.3%3.8+0.7.371BPowerHot
4Ryan O'Hearn DH · bats L61.3%36.7%12.2%3.8+0.5.375BBalancedNormal
5Nick Gonzales 3B · bats R67.3%35.2%5.7%3.7+0.3.373BContactNormal
6Ronny Simon RF · bats S62.2%33.5%8.4%3.6+0.3.310FBalancedNormal
7Spencer Horwitz 1B · bats L57.9%28.7%5.6%3.5+0.4.217FBalancedNormal
8Jake Mangum LF · bats S57.1%27.4%5.2%3.4+0.3.309FBalancedHot
9Henry Davis C · bats R49.8%26.0%8.5%3.3+0.3.323FBalancedNormal
Matchup: points of 1+ hit chance against the same hitter facing a league-average starter, bullpen and park. wOBA vs hand: the last 90 days against pitchers of the starter's hand. Talent: season-level grade. Form is context and doesn't move a projection.

Tigers lineup

Projected · facing TBD
SpotHitter1+ hit2+ TBHRPAMatchup (1+ hit)wOBA vs handTalent gradeTypeForm
1Kevin McGonigle 3B · bats L67.0%40.3%14.0%4.0-0.1–——Normal
2Hao-Yu Lee DH · bats R61.5%36.2%12.4%3.9-0.4–——Normal
3Ben Malgeri RF · bats R57.3%32.8%9.7%3.8-0.4–——Normal
4Riley Greene LF · bats L63.3%43.9%21.9%3.8-0.2–——Normal
5Dillon Dingler C · bats R61.3%34.3%10.0%3.7-0.4–——Normal
6Max Clark CF · bats L61.6%31.8%7.9%3.6-0.3–——Normal
7Spencer Torkelson 1B · bats R53.5%31.1%13.6%3.5-0.4–——Normal
8John Peck SS · bats R53.2%28.1%8.5%3.4-0.4–——Normal
9Zach McKinstry 2B · bats L56.0%27.5%4.2%3.3-0.3–——Normal
Matchup: points of 1+ hit chance against the same hitter facing a league-average starter, bullpen and park. wOBA vs hand: the last 90 days against pitchers of the starter's hand. Talent: season-level grade. Form is context and doesn't move a projection.