MLBengine v14
← PIT at DET, Sep 26, 2026
12:10 PM CT · Comerica Park · lineup projected
Hitter · DET · batting 2Hao-Yu Lee
Bats rightTalent grade ——Normal
–wOBA vs RHP–xwOBA vs his mix3.9expected PA
Starter · PITTBD
Stable
4.3projected K–K%2.3trips vs this hitter
Hao-Yu Lee's last 40 balls in playHit (16)Out (24)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 60.8 mph at 7°Out: 79.2 mph at 77°Single: 87.4 mph at 16°Out: 92.2 mph at 45°Single: 100.0 mph at 13°Out: 101.8 mph at -13°Out: 95.0 mph at 34°Single: 99.0 mph at 4°Double: 92.1 mph at -13°Double: 101.9 mph at 24°Out: 92.9 mph at 23°Out: 77.8 mph at 39°Out: 88.7 mph at 36°Single: 105.8 mph at 14°Single: 97.5 mph at 9°Single: 101.1 mph at 13°Out: 92.9 mph at -3°Home run: 100.2 mph at 27°Single: 99.0 mph at 8°Double: 108.9 mph at 18°Out: 40.3 mph at 40°Out: 73.0 mph at 74°Out: 57.9 mph at -79°Single: 90.9 mph at 19°Out: 106.1 mph at -22°Home run: 106.1 mph at 33°Out: 56.3 mph at -44°Out: 90.1 mph at 47°Out: 86.4 mph at -7°Out: 105.9 mph at 17°Out: 62.3 mph at -60°Out: 91.5 mph at 51°Out: 83.0 mph at -5°Double: 96.9 mph at 26°Out: 87.0 mph at 39°Triple: 96.7 mph at 24°Double: 77.9 mph at 13°Out: 100.9 mph at -10°Out: 91.0 mph at 60°Out: 81.9 mph at 76°
43% hit 95+ mph38% in the sweet spot40% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit61.5%61.9%-0.4
2+ total bases36.2%36.6%-0.4
Home run12.4%12.5%-0.1
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
0.0
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.4
Park
+0.1
2+ total bases
Starter
0.0
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.5
Park
+0.1
Home run
Starter
0.0
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.2
Park
+0.1

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Hao-Yu Lee · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G515.286.333.357.310.20526.7%6.7%17.9%88.6105.80.0%30.0%30.0%
Last 15 G1554.222.333.333.319.24925.9%14.8%19.8%86.1106.10.0%31.2%31.2%
Last 30 G2787.247.356.425.355.31724.1%14.9%23.9%89.2110.05.7%41.5%34.0%
90 days49145.280.366.480.373.32520.7%12.4%22.6%89.0110.08.2%43.3%33.0%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 97 balls in play
Ground 43%Line drive 22%Fly ball 24%Pop-up 11%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G59.375.444.500.417.43633.3%11.1%15.0%97.2101.920.0%80.0%60.0%
Last 15 G916.429.5001.000.606.50737.5%12.5%25.0%100.2108.950.0%87.5%62.5%
Last 30 G1840.270.325.486.350.33730.0%7.5%22.0%96.1112.220.0%60.0%36.0%
90 days4484.269.310.449.327.30625.0%6.0%23.1%92.2112.210.3%50.0%36.2%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 58 balls in play
Ground 47%Line drive 28%Fly ball 16%Pop-up 10%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G524.318.375.409.350.29129.2%8.3%16.7%91.5105.86.7%46.7%40.0%
Last 15 G1570.271.371.492.385.30828.6%14.3%21.1%88.9108.910.0%42.5%37.5%
Last 30 G30127.255.346.445.354.32426.0%12.6%23.2%91.4112.210.3%47.4%34.6%
90 days64229.276.345.468.356.31822.3%10.0%22.8%90.2112.29.0%45.8%34.2%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 155 balls in play
Ground 45%Line drive 24%Fly ball 21%Pop-up 11%
Hao-Yu Lee · percentile ranksvs 304 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormNormal
Contact rating72Above average
Last 100 pitches56trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.351 / .338results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit7/12
2+ total bases5/12
Home run2/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 23RHPSinker94.960.87.120Out
Sep 23RHPSlider90.279.277.005Out
Sep 23LHPSweeper80.187.416.909Single
Sep 23RHPSweeper83.992.245.014Out
Sep 22LHPSinker90.7100.013.889Single
Sep 22LHPSlider87.2101.8-13.257Double play
Sep 21LHPChangeup81.595.034.149Out
Sep 21RHPCutter93.599.04.457Single
Sep 21RHPSlider87.192.1-13.148Double
Sep 21LHPFastball92.7101.9241.020Double
Sep 21RHPSplitter84.192.923.220Out
Sep 20RHPFastball90.877.839.044Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 23511001
Sep 22511021
Sep 21535000
Sep 20400002
Sep 19522003
Sep 18548100
Sep 16400001
Sep 15525101
Sep 14400001
Sep 13500011

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent grade—— type
wOBA–
K%–
BB%–
Whiff%–
Barrel%–
Hard-hit%–
Avg EV–

Against right-handers, last 90 days

0 PA
wOBA–
xwOBA vs this mix–against pitches like his
RV/100–
Hard-hit%–
K%–
BB%–

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces

Starter not announced.

The rest of the gamePIT @ DET →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Hao-Yu Lee: every projection we've made →