MLBengine v14
← PIT at DET, Sep 26, 2026
12:10 PM CT · Comerica Park · lineup projected
Hitter · PIT · batting 9Henry Davis
Bats rightTalent grade FBalancedNormal
.323wOBA vs RHP.318xwOBA vs his mix3.3expected PA
Starter · DETJustin Verlander
Throws rightStable
4.1projected K–K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Henry Davis's last 40 balls in playHit (7)Out (33)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 95.0 mph at 1°Out: 71.5 mph at 8°Double: 99.9 mph at 18°Out: 82.9 mph at 58°Home run: 110.2 mph at 26°Out: 94.3 mph at 45°Out: 92.3 mph at 43°Out: 97.0 mph at 57°Out: 67.5 mph at -56°Out: 110.0 mph at -15°Out: 84.3 mph at 71°Out: 85.4 mph at 41°Out: 99.7 mph at 50°Out: 97.0 mph at 28°Home run: 100.1 mph at 28°Out: 25.8 mph at 13°Out: 97.8 mph at 31°Out: 101.3 mph at -14°Single: 100.1 mph at 12°Out: 95.3 mph at -20°Out: 86.7 mph at -25°Out: 55.4 mph at 12°Out: 106.1 mph at 54°Out: 32.5 mph at -17°Out: 93.3 mph at 6°Out: 91.5 mph at -3°Single: 95.1 mph at 10°Out: 88.8 mph at 25°Out: 85.4 mph at 77°Out: 87.8 mph at 64°Out: 100.3 mph at 39°Out: 81.0 mph at -48°Out: 97.8 mph at 36°Out: 87.1 mph at 66°Out: 83.1 mph at 67°Out: 98.6 mph at 73°Single: 26.8 mph at -17°Out: 83.9 mph at 70°Out: 87.8 mph at 25°Single: 83.7 mph at 0°
43% hit 95+ mph30% in the sweet spot18% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit49.8%49.5%+0.3
2+ total bases26.0%26.2%-0.2
Home run8.5%9.0%-0.5
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+0.3
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.0
Park
+0.0
2+ total bases
Starter
-0.2
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.0
Park
+0.0
Home run
Starter
-0.6
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.0
Park
+0.1

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Henry Davis · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G513.111.385.222.312.34315.4%30.8%23.1%89.1110.00.0%57.1%28.6%
Last 15 G1226.222.440.444.406.4417.7%19.2%18.8%87.3110.05.9%64.7%52.9%
Last 30 G2355.205.352.295.316.36014.5%12.7%18.4%87.2110.08.3%47.2%41.7%
90 days3483.224.366.328.330.32618.1%13.3%22.4%85.5110.05.8%42.3%38.5%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 52 balls in play
Ground 37%Line drive 21%Fly ball 27%Pop-up 15%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G46.200.200.800.450.45333.3%0.0%40.0%98.9110.233.3%33.3%33.3%
Last 15 G1019.062.118.250.200.23436.8%5.3%38.6%88.5110.210.0%30.0%10.0%
Last 30 G2042.111.175.194.188.21128.6%7.1%31.6%90.1110.23.8%38.5%15.4%
90 days2856.140.185.260.209.22126.8%5.4%28.2%89.3110.22.7%40.5%24.3%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 37 balls in play
Ground 30%Line drive 16%Fly ball 22%Pop-up 32%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G519.143.333.429.355.37821.1%21.1%29.3%92.1110.210.0%50.0%30.0%
Last 15 G1545.147.310.353.320.35520.0%13.3%28.3%87.7110.27.4%51.9%37.0%
Last 30 G3097.162.277.250.260.29520.6%10.3%24.7%88.4110.26.5%43.5%30.6%
90 days42139.188.294.299.281.28421.6%10.1%24.9%87.1110.24.5%41.6%32.6%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 89 balls in play
Ground 34%Line drive 19%Fly ball 25%Pop-up 23%
Henry Davis · percentile ranksvs 304 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormNormal
Contact rating21Poor
Last 100 pitches58trending up
wOBA / xwOBA.278 / .285results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit4/12
2+ total bases3/12
Home run2/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 24RHPSinker95.395.01.395Out
Sep 24RHPSlider88.371.58.266Force out
Sep 18RHPSinker92.599.918.442Double
Sep 18RHPSweeper84.782.958.040Out
Sep 17LHPSinker97.6110.2262.008Home run
Sep 13LHPSlider84.194.345.005Out
Sep 13LHPFastball92.392.343.007Out
Sep 13RHPCutter91.097.057.008Out
Sep 13RHPSlider91.967.5-56.285Out
Sep 12RHPSinker95.3110.0-15.225Force out
Sep 11LHPSlider85.484.371.007Out
Sep 11LHPSplitter82.985.441.025Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 24400002
Sep 18412011
Sep 17414111
Sep 13400000
Sep 12300020
Sep 11200000
Sep 6314100
Sep 4300000
Sep 1411011
Aug 28200001

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeFBalanced type
wOBA.266
K%23.3%
BB%8.4%
Whiff%12.4%
Barrel%4.7%
Hard-hit%25.7%
Avg EV87.4

Against right-handers, last 90 days

83 PA
wOBA.323
xwOBA vs this mix.318against pitches like his
RV/1000.14
Hard-hit%26.5%
K%18.9%
BB%9.9%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Justin VerlanderRHP · DET vs PIT
4.1projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 7 · 19.4 batters over 4.6 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 42.2%42%≤34 strikeouts: 19.5%19%45 strikeouts: 15.8%16%56 strikeouts: 10.7%11%67 strikeouts: 6.2%6%78 strikeouts: 3.2%3%89+ strikeouts: 2.4%2%9+book 4.5
Over 4.5: 38% (red bars) · under: 62%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%–
BB%–
Whiff%–
Velo–
BTB Stuff–
Location–

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Justin Verlander DET · RHPvsPIT lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

2 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.6%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gamePIT @ DET →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Henry Davis: every projection we've made →