MLBengine v14
← PIT at DET, Sep 26, 2026
12:10 PM CT · Comerica Park · lineup confirmed
Hitter · PIT · batting 10Jacob Gonzalez
Bats leftTalent grade DBalancedNormal
.252wOBA vs RHP.309xwOBA vs his mix3.6expected PA
Starter · DETJustin Verlander
Throws rightStable
4.1projected K–K%1.0trips vs this hitter
Justin Verlander's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 49% usage, 94.3 mph, +8.9″ arm side, +19.0″ rise. Jacob Gonzalez: wOBA .330 vs league .351 (pitcher's edge).Fastball 49%Slider: 25% usage, 87.2 mph, -4.3″ arm side, +4.8″ rise. Jacob Gonzalez: wOBA .314 vs league .335 (pitcher's edge).Slider 25%Curveball: 19% usage, 78.4 mph, -7.0″ arm side, -12.7″ rise. Jacob Gonzalez: wOBA .276 vs league .297 (pitcher's edge).Curveball 19%Changeup: 6% usage, 84.8 mph, +14.0″ arm side, +9.5″ rise. Jacob Gonzalez: wOBA .291 vs league .313 (pitcher's edge).Changeup 6%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Jacob Gonzalez's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Jacob Gonzalez's last 40 balls in playHit (9)Out (31)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 91.6 mph at -20°Out: 90.0 mph at -15°Out: 79.7 mph at 64°Single: 77.8 mph at 11°Out: 99.0 mph at -6°Out: 100.1 mph at 39°Single: 98.3 mph at 17°Out: 97.2 mph at -3°Single: 106.3 mph at 7°Out: 89.3 mph at 55°Out: 50.1 mph at 45°Out: 86.4 mph at 32°Out: 85.7 mph at -21°Out: 68.8 mph at -11°Out: 102.9 mph at 28°Single: 101.6 mph at -1°Out: 96.6 mph at 70°Double: 99.5 mph at 30°Single: 37.8 mph at -68°Double: 104.0 mph at 14°Out: 79.6 mph at -23°Out: 76.0 mph at -5°Single: 68.8 mph at 20°Out: 92.1 mph at 19°Out: 101.9 mph at 6°Out: 103.7 mph at 3°Out: 76.8 mph at -2°Out: 78.7 mph at -1°Out: 89.9 mph at 56°Out: 61.8 mph at 67°Out: 88.7 mph at 74°Out: 101.0 mph at 20°Single: 88.1 mph at 17°Out: 75.0 mph at -35°Out: 49.0 mph at -8°Out: 72.1 mph at 5°Out: 82.6 mph at 64°Out: 89.1 mph at 57°Out: 102.6 mph at 4°Out: 85.5 mph at 7°
35% hit 95+ mph25% in the sweet spot23% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit59.4%59.1%+0.3
2+ total bases36.5%36.2%+0.3
Home run10.2%9.9%+0.2
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+0.4
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
+0.0
2+ total bases
Starter
+0.4
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.2
Park
+0.0
Home run
Starter
+0.3
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
+0.1

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Jacob Gonzalez hits
Jacob Gonzalez · hot and cold vs RHP
xwOBA .248 shrunk (raw .209 on 8 PA) · league .274 · 27 pitches seen.248xwOBA .268 shrunk (raw .201 on 7 PA) · league .307 · 34 pitches seen.268xwOBA .231 shrunk (raw .136 on 4 PA) · league .263 · 13 pitches seen.231xwOBA .326 shrunk (raw .313 on 15 PA) · league .342 · 29 pitches seen.326xwOBA .377 shrunk (raw .366 on 9 PA) · league .386 · 28 pitches seen.377xwOBA .370 shrunk (raw .428 on 10 PA) · league .321 · 25 pitches seen.370xwOBA .403 shrunk (raw .484 on 14 PA) · league .308 · 28 pitches seen.403xwOBA .268 shrunk (raw .192 on 13 PA) · league .351 · 28 pitches seen.268xwOBA .391 shrunk (raw .540 on 8 PA) · league .292 · 25 pitches seen.391xwOBA .386 shrunk (raw .402 on 7 PA) · league .377 · 82 pitches seen.386xwOBA .272 shrunk (raw .270 on 8 PA) · league .274 · 28 pitches seen.272xwOBA .203 shrunk (raw .161 on 17 PA) · league .263 · 72 pitches seen.203xwOBA .287 shrunk (raw .300 on 12 PA) · league .274 · 79 pitches seen.287
vs RHP · 498 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 27% of 15 swings · league 22%27%Whiff 45% of 29 swings · league 20%45%Whiff 27% of 11 swings · league 19%27%Whiff 0% of 20 swings · league 10%0%Whiff 8% of 25 swings · league 9%8%Whiff 13% of 16 swings · league 11%13%Whiff 10% of 21 swings · league 14%10%Whiff 5% of 22 swings · league 13%5%Whiff 11% of 18 swings · league 17%11%Whiff 33% of 24 swings · league 28%33%Whiff 17% of 12 swings · league 24%17%Whiff 12% of 34 swings · league 32%12%Whiff 24% of 38 swings · league 49%24%
vs RHP · 498 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 56% of 27 pitches · league 62%56%Swings at 85% of 34 pitches · league 72%85%Swings at 85% of 13 pitches · league 66%85%Swings at 69% of 29 pitches · league 70%69%Swings at 89% of 28 pitches · league 76%89%Swings at 64% of 25 pitches · league 70%64%Swings at 75% of 28 pitches · league 65%75%Swings at 79% of 28 pitches · league 68%79%Swings at 72% of 25 pitches · league 60%72%Swings at 29% of 82 pitches · league 24%29%Swings at 43% of 28 pitches · league 34%43%Swings at 47% of 72 pitches · league 40%47%Swings at 48% of 79 pitches · league 32%48%
vs RHP · 498 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Jacob Gonzalez against each of Justin Verlander's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball49%94.3+9″ / +19″.330.35120.5%19.3%38About league average vs these
Slider25%87.2-4″ / +5″.314.33519.1%24.7%23About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Curveball19%78.4-7″ / -13″.276.29720.1%25.9%9About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Changeup6%84.8+14″ / +10″.291.31320.6%26.0%24About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Jacob Gonzalez · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G510.222.300.222.250.26910.0%10.0%23.1%91.7100.10.0%50.0%25.0%
Last 15 G1534.194.265.226.231.29217.6%5.9%22.8%88.7106.38.0%44.0%24.0%
Last 30 G2868.169.206.231.198.26916.2%2.9%19.3%87.1108.65.6%29.6%22.2%
90 days54133.198.227.325.242.30916.5%3.0%18.2%87.8108.64.7%37.7%34.9%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 106 balls in play
Ground 45%Line drive 22%Fly ball 21%Pop-up 12%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 GNo plate appearances
Last 15 G34.500.500.750.537.37225.0%0.0%20.0%74.3104.00.0%33.3%66.7%
Last 30 G79.429.556.714.533.40822.2%11.1%15.0%83.4106.90.0%40.0%60.0%
90 days1419.353.421.588.432.34215.8%5.3%9.5%85.8106.97.1%35.7%57.1%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 14 balls in play
Ground 29%Line drive 43%Fly ball 14%Pop-up 14%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G510.222.300.222.250.26910.0%10.0%23.1%91.7100.10.0%50.0%25.0%
Last 15 G1538.229.289.286.263.30018.4%5.3%22.4%87.2106.37.1%42.9%28.6%
Last 30 G3077.194.247.278.237.28616.9%3.9%18.8%86.8108.65.1%30.5%25.4%
90 days56152.217.252.357.266.31316.4%3.3%17.1%87.6108.65.0%37.5%37.5%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 120 balls in play
Ground 43%Line drive 24%Fly ball 20%Pop-up 13%
Jacob Gonzalez · percentile ranksvs 228 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormNormal
Contact rating51Average
Last 100 pitches42trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.267 / .317running 50 points behind his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit7/12
2+ total bases2/12
Home run0/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 22RHPFastball93.191.6-20.112Out
Sep 22RHPFastball95.590.0-15.094Out
Sep 16RHPChangeup83.979.764.018Out
Sep 12RHPSinker89.377.811.355Single
Sep 12RHPChangeup86.499.0-6.255Out
Sep 11RHPFastball98.5100.139.373Out
Sep 9RHPChangeup88.398.317.494Single
Sep 9RHPFastball93.297.2-3.290Out
Sep 8RHPCurveball78.7106.37.666Single
Sep 8RHPSlider87.689.355.014Out
Sep 8LHPSinker93.550.145.026Out
Sep 8RHPSplitter81.386.432.054Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 22200000
Sep 16200001
Sep 12311010
Sep 11100000
Sep 9211000
Sep 8511001
Sep 6300000
Sep 4311001
Sep 3200002
Sep 2112000

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeDBalanced type
wOBA.292
K%18.6%
BB%5.3%
Whiff%10.0%
Barrel%4.4%
Hard-hit%28.3%
Avg EV87.9

Against right-handers, last 90 days

133 PA
wOBA.252
xwOBA vs this mix.309against pitches like his
RV/100-1.70
Hard-hit%29.6%
K%17.2%
BB%3.5%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Justin VerlanderRHP · DET vs PIT
4.1projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 7 · 19.4 batters over 4.6 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 42.4%42%≤34 strikeouts: 19.4%19%45 strikeouts: 15.8%16%56 strikeouts: 10.6%11%67 strikeouts: 6.2%6%78 strikeouts: 3.2%3%89+ strikeouts: 2.4%2%9+book 4.5
Over 4.5: 38% (red bars) · under: 62%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%–
BB%–
Whiff%–
Velo–
BTB Stuff–
Location–

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Justin Verlander DET · RHPvsPIT lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

5 of 12 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.7%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gamePIT @ DET →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Jacob Gonzalez: every projection we've made →