MLBengine v14
← PIT at DET, Sep 26, 2026
12:10 PM CT · Comerica Park · lineup confirmed
Hitter · PIT · batting 11Jared Triolo
Bats rightTalent grade AvgContactCold
.298wOBA vs RHP.276xwOBA vs his mix3.6expected PA
Starter · DETJustin Verlander
Throws rightStable
4.1projected K–K%1.0trips vs this hitter
Justin Verlander's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 49% usage, 94.3 mph, +8.9″ arm side, +19.0″ rise. Jared Triolo: wOBA .333 vs league .340 (about even).Fastball 49%Slider: 25% usage, 87.2 mph, -4.3″ arm side, +4.8″ rise. Jared Triolo: wOBA .295 vs league .302 (about even).Slider 25%Curveball: 19% usage, 78.4 mph, -7.0″ arm side, -12.7″ rise. Jared Triolo: wOBA .302 vs league .309 (about even).Curveball 19%Changeup: 6% usage, 84.8 mph, +14.0″ arm side, +9.5″ rise. Jared Triolo: wOBA .338 vs league .345 (about even).Changeup 6%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Jared Triolo's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Jared Triolo's last 40 balls in playHit (11)Out (29)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 84.2 mph at -34°Single: 104.4 mph at 12°Out: 58.3 mph at 16°Out: 90.5 mph at 17°Out: 66.0 mph at 70°Single: 95.7 mph at -3°Out: 92.0 mph at -11°Out: 77.5 mph at 51°Out: 91.8 mph at 21°Out: 71.0 mph at 17°Out: 88.6 mph at 25°Out: 41.2 mph at 22°Out: 89.2 mph at 40°Out: 84.8 mph at -23°Out: 89.9 mph at -9°Single: 67.4 mph at 44°Out: 95.8 mph at 28°Single: 102.6 mph at -12°Single: 78.3 mph at -57°Out: 92.2 mph at -22°Out: 92.2 mph at 22°Out: 77.8 mph at -28°Out: 86.4 mph at 39°Out: 69.8 mph at -4°Out: 29.2 mph at -1°Out: 79.7 mph at 0°Out: 81.3 mph at 31°Out: 66.1 mph at -42°Single: 78.2 mph at 4°Home run: 104.1 mph at 33°Out: 60.1 mph at 1°Single: 82.0 mph at 9°Out: 88.2 mph at 35°Single: 97.1 mph at 15°Single: 91.4 mph at 16°Out: 90.8 mph at 22°Out: 62.7 mph at -56°Single: 77.0 mph at 1°Out: 67.3 mph at 60°Out: 76.4 mph at 38°
15% hit 95+ mph35% in the sweet spot28% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit55.7%55.4%+0.3
2+ total bases30.8%30.6%+0.1
Home run6.5%6.7%-0.2
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+0.4
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
+0.0
2+ total bases
Starter
+0.1
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.0
Park
+0.0
Home run
Starter
-0.3
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.0
Park
+0.0

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Jared Triolo hits
Jared Triolo · hot and cold vs RHP
xwOBA .265 shrunk (raw .227 on 3 PA) · league .274 · 10 pitches seen.265xwOBA .281 shrunk (raw .247 on 9 PA) · league .307 · 18 pitches seen.281xwOBA .277 shrunk (raw .320 on 4 PA) · league .263 · 11 pitches seen.277xwOBA .269 shrunk (raw .094 on 5 PA) · league .342 · 14 pitches seen.269xwOBA .352 shrunk (raw .322 on 14 PA) · league .386 · 29 pitches seen.352xwOBA .294 shrunk (raw .248 on 7 PA) · league .321 · 24 pitches seen.294xwOBA .265 shrunk (raw .136 on 4 PA) · league .308 · 9 pitches seen.265xwOBA .342 shrunk (raw .330 on 9 PA) · league .351 · 25 pitches seen.342xwOBA .236 shrunk (raw .151 on 8 PA) · league .292 · 20 pitches seen.236xwOBA .403 shrunk (raw .447 on 7 PA) · league .377 · 31 pitches seen.403xwOBA .216 shrunk (raw .077 on 5 PA) · league .274 · 30 pitches seen.216xwOBA .275 shrunk (raw .349 on 2 PA) · league .263 · 22 pitches seen.275xwOBA .307 shrunk (raw .332 on 16 PA) · league .274 · 93 pitches seen.307
vs RHP · 336 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 0% of 5 swings · league 22%0%Whiff 12% of 17 swings · league 20%12%Whiff 22% of 9 swings · league 19%22%Whiff 0% of 10 swings · league 10%0%Whiff 5% of 22 swings · league 9%5%Whiff 6% of 18 swings · league 11%6%Whiff 20% of 5 swings · league 14%20%Whiff 17% of 12 swings · league 13%17%Whiff 17% of 12 swings · league 17%17%Whiff 18% of 11 swings · league 28%18%Whiff 15% of 13 swings · league 24%15%Whiff 33% of 6 swings · league 32%33%Whiff 52% of 25 swings · league 49%52%
vs RHP · 336 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 50% of 10 pitches · league 62%50%Swings at 94% of 18 pitches · league 72%94%Swings at 82% of 11 pitches · league 66%82%Swings at 71% of 14 pitches · league 70%71%Swings at 76% of 29 pitches · league 76%76%Swings at 75% of 24 pitches · league 70%75%Swings at 56% of 9 pitches · league 65%56%Swings at 48% of 25 pitches · league 68%48%Swings at 60% of 20 pitches · league 60%60%Swings at 36% of 31 pitches · league 24%36%Swings at 43% of 30 pitches · league 34%43%Swings at 27% of 22 pitches · league 40%27%Swings at 27% of 93 pitches · league 32%27%
vs RHP · 336 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Jared Triolo against each of Justin Verlander's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball49%94.3+9″ / +19″.333.34016.4%20.4%223About league average vs these
Slider25%87.2-4″ / +5″.295.30235.1%30.3%152About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Curveball19%78.4-7″ / -13″.302.30930.1%25.6%34About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Changeup6%84.8+14″ / +10″.338.34526.9%23.2%72About league average vs these
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Jared Triolo · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G34.000.000.000.000.08425.0%0.0%28.6%72.192.00.0%0.0%33.3%
Last 15 G917.143.188.143.169.17323.5%5.9%20.6%77.9102.60.0%16.7%25.0%
Last 30 G1942.139.220.139.183.19319.0%7.1%14.9%78.7106.80.0%20.0%13.3%
90 days4594.220.293.329.296.27018.1%7.4%18.2%85.0106.84.5%37.3%25.4%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 67 balls in play
Ground 58%Line drive 21%Fly ball 15%Pop-up 6%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G46.333.333.333.300.36016.7%0.0%0.0%90.5104.40.0%40.0%40.0%
Last 15 G1015.200.200.200.180.25513.3%0.0%10.5%83.3104.40.0%15.4%46.2%
Last 30 G2143.286.302.357.293.3339.3%2.3%13.2%84.5107.32.6%23.7%50.0%
90 days4897.261.330.318.297.32412.4%8.2%13.8%83.8108.32.6%25.0%42.1%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 76 balls in play
Ground 49%Line drive 25%Fly ball 21%Pop-up 5%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G510.200.200.200.180.25020.0%0.0%14.3%83.6104.40.0%25.0%37.5%
Last 15 G1532.172.194.172.174.21318.8%3.1%17.0%80.7104.40.0%16.0%36.0%
Last 30 G3085.218.262.256.239.26514.1%4.7%14.0%81.9107.31.5%22.1%33.8%
90 days63191.241.312.324.297.29815.2%7.9%16.0%84.4108.33.5%30.8%34.3%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 143 balls in play
Ground 53%Line drive 23%Fly ball 18%Pop-up 6%
Jared Triolo · percentile ranksvs 228 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormCold
Contact rating31Below average
Last 100 pitches1trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.293 / .297results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit4/12
2+ total bases0/12
Home run0/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25LHPCutter88.084.2-34.054Out
Sep 23LHPSlider84.4104.412.942Single
Sep 23RHPChangeup80.258.316.144Out
Sep 22LHPSinker89.490.517.781Out
Sep 18RHPSlider85.966.070.000Out
Sep 17LHPSweeper82.495.7-3.313Single
Sep 17RHPSinker96.292.0-11.192Out
Sep 17LHPSinker96.077.551.070Out
Sep 15LHPSinker98.491.821.264Out
Sep 13LHPChangeup77.571.017.674Out
Sep 12LHPFastball96.288.625.087Out
Sep 11LHPSplitter81.041.222.185Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25100000
Sep 23311001
Sep 22100000
Sep 18100000
Sep 17411001
Sep 16100001
Sep 15100000
Sep 13200001
Sep 12100000
Sep 11400000

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeAvgContact type
wOBA.307
K%16.4%
BB%8.6%
Whiff%8.2%
Barrel%3.3%
Hard-hit%23.9%
Avg EV85.1

Against right-handers, last 90 days

94 PA
wOBA.298
xwOBA vs this mix.276against pitches like his
RV/100-0.89
Hard-hit%26.2%
K%18.3%
BB%7.9%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Justin VerlanderRHP · DET vs PIT
4.1projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 7 · 19.4 batters over 4.6 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 42.4%42%≤34 strikeouts: 19.4%19%45 strikeouts: 15.8%16%56 strikeouts: 10.6%11%67 strikeouts: 6.2%6%78 strikeouts: 3.2%3%89+ strikeouts: 2.4%2%9+book 4.5
Over 4.5: 38% (red bars) · under: 62%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%–
BB%–
Whiff%–
Velo–
BTB Stuff–
Location–

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Justin Verlander DET · RHPvsPIT lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

5 of 12 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.7%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gamePIT @ DET →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Jared Triolo: every projection we've made →