43% hit 95+ mph35% in the sweet spot25% fell for hits
| Market | BTB | Without the matchup | Matchup |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1+ hit | 53.2% | 53.6% | -0.4 |
| 2+ total bases | 28.1% | 28.4% | -0.4 |
| Home run | 8.5% | 8.6% | -0.1 |
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
0.0
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen-0.4
Park+0.0
2+ total bases
Starter
0.0
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen-0.4
Park+0.1
Home run
Starter
0.0
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen-0.2
Park+0.1
Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.
Statcast
opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonightJohn Peck · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
| Window | G | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | xwOBA | K% | BB% | Whiff% | Avg EV | Max EV | Barrel% | Hard-hit% | Sweet-spot% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 G | 5 | 12 | .000 | .167 | .000 | .117 | .208 | 25.0% | 16.7% | 22.2% | 88.0 | 105.9 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 28.6% |
| Last 15 G | 15 | 43 | .118 | .279 | .118 | .214 | .319 | 20.9% | 16.3% | 24.0% | 89.4 | 105.9 | 7.7% | 42.3% | 34.6% |
| Last 30 G | 17 | 48 | .132 | .292 | .158 | .232 | .355 | 18.8% | 14.6% | 23.3% | 91.1 | 109.9 | 13.3% | 50.0% | 36.7% |
| 90 days | 17 | 48 | .132 | .292 | .158 | .232 | .355 | 18.8% | 14.6% | 23.3% | 91.1 | 109.9 | 13.3% | 50.0% | 36.7% |
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 30 balls in play
Ground 43%Line drive 30%Fly ball 10%Pop-up 17%
| Window | G | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | xwOBA | K% | BB% | Whiff% | Avg EV | Max EV | Barrel% | Hard-hit% | Sweet-spot% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 G | 4 | 7 | .000 | .143 | .000 | .100 | .289 | 28.6% | 14.3% | 36.4% | 99.6 | 106.7 | 0.0% | 75.0% | 25.0% |
| Last 15 G | 10 | 17 | .267 | .353 | .267 | .312 | .310 | 23.5% | 11.8% | 25.0% | 90.1 | 106.7 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 30.0% |
| Last 30 G | 13 | 25 | .217 | .280 | .217 | .283 | .259 | 28.0% | 8.0% | 24.5% | 85.7 | 106.7 | 0.0% | 26.7% | 26.7% |
| 90 days | 13 | 25 | .217 | .280 | .217 | .283 | .259 | 28.0% | 8.0% | 24.5% | 85.7 | 106.7 | 0.0% | 26.7% | 26.7% |
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 15 balls in play
Ground 60%Line drive 20%Fly ball 20%Pop-up 0%
| Window | G | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | xwOBA | K% | BB% | Whiff% | Avg EV | Max EV | Barrel% | Hard-hit% | Sweet-spot% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 G | 5 | 19 | .000 | .158 | .000 | .111 | .238 | 26.3% | 15.8% | 27.6% | 92.2 | 106.7 | 0.0% | 45.5% | 27.3% |
| Last 15 G | 15 | 60 | .163 | .300 | .163 | .241 | .316 | 21.7% | 15.0% | 24.3% | 89.6 | 106.7 | 5.6% | 41.7% | 33.3% |
| Last 30 G | 18 | 73 | .164 | .288 | .180 | .249 | .323 | 21.9% | 12.3% | 23.7% | 89.3 | 109.9 | 8.9% | 42.2% | 33.3% |
| 90 days | 18 | 73 | .164 | .288 | .180 | .249 | .323 | 21.9% | 12.3% | 23.7% | 89.3 | 109.9 | 8.9% | 42.2% | 33.3% |
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 45 balls in play
Ground 49%Line drive 27%Fly ball 13%Pop-up 11%
xwOBA60.323
Avg EV6489.3
Max EV54109.9
Barrel%708.9%
Hard-hit%6742.2%
Sweet-spot%3633.3%
K%5121.9%
BB%8812.3%
Whiff%4223.7%
Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.
FormNormal
Contact rating76Above average
Last 100 pitches39trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.248 / .342running 94 points behind his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit5/12
2+ total bases0/12
Home run0/12
Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.
Recent contact
| Date | Pitcher | Pitch | Velo | EV | LA | xwOBA | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 23 | RHP | Sinker | 92.8 | 77.9 | -28 | .041 | Out |
| Sep 22 | LHP | Fastball | 91.0 | 106.7 | -10 | .321 | Out |
| Sep 22 | RHP | Fastball | 95.3 | 105.9 | 16 | .662 | Out |
| Sep 22 | LHP | Fastball | 93.4 | 93.1 | 35 | .092 | Out |
| Sep 21 | LHP | Slider | 88.4 | 100.6 | 9 | .614 | Out |
| Sep 21 | LHP | Slider | 88.4 | 98.1 | 37 | .297 | Out |
| Sep 21 | RHP | Cutter | 91.2 | 83.5 | 78 | .010 | Out |
| Sep 21 | RHP | Fastball | 89.5 | 94.1 | 26 | .219 | Out |
| Sep 20 | RHP | Fastball | 93.7 | 81.2 | 67 | .000 | Out |
| Sep 19 | RHP | Slider | 85.8 | 103.3 | -23 | .109 | Out |
| Sep 19 | RHP | Slider | 91.0 | 69.8 | -8 | .062 | Out |
| Sep 17 | RHP | Cutter | 92.5 | 97.3 | 7 | .564 | Out |
Total bases, last 10 games★ home run
| Date | PA | H | TB | HR | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 23 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Sep 22 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Sep 21 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sep 20 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| Sep 19 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Sep 17 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Sep 16 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Sep 15 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Sep 13 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Sep 12 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
The hitter
season-level talent readTalent grade—— type
wOBA–
K%–
BB%–
Whiff%–
Barrel%–
Hard-hit%–
Avg EV–
Against right-handers, last 90 days
0 PAwOBA–
xwOBA vs this mix–against pitches like his
RV/100–
Hard-hit%–
K%–
BB%–
Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.
The starter he faces
Starter not announced.
The rest of the gamePIT @ DET →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.John Peck: every projection we've made →