MLBengine v14
← PIT at DET, Sep 26, 2026
12:10 PM CT · Comerica Park · lineup projected
Hitter · PIT · batting 2Konnor Griffin
Bats rightTalent grade AvgBalancedNormal
.276wOBA vs RHP.272xwOBA vs his mix3.9expected PA
Starter · DETJustin Verlander
Throws rightStable
4.1projected K–K%2.3trips vs this hitter
Konnor Griffin's last 40 balls in playHit (15)Out (25)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Single: 74.1 mph at 25°Single: 86.4 mph at 15°Out: 76.8 mph at 3°Out: 73.0 mph at 14°Out: 107.9 mph at -2°Out: 99.2 mph at 35°Out: 90.9 mph at 40°Triple: 108.1 mph at 7°Single: 89.2 mph at 21°Out: 52.9 mph at 15°Out: 102.5 mph at 1°Out: 100.9 mph at 18°Double: 101.1 mph at 18°Out: 102.8 mph at 43°Out: 91.1 mph at 27°Out: 78.9 mph at -63°Out: 92.2 mph at -4°Out: 89.6 mph at 1°Single: 73.5 mph at 9°Single: 107.6 mph at 7°Single: 89.2 mph at 16°Single: 92.1 mph at 6°Double: 86.9 mph at 16°Out: 96.1 mph at 44°Out: 86.7 mph at 3°Double: 109.0 mph at 6°Out: 97.3 mph at -4°Out: 71.0 mph at 3°Single: 61.2 mph at -27°Single: 78.9 mph at 12°Out: 102.5 mph at -6°Out: 63.8 mph at 48°Out: 78.5 mph at 25°Out: 86.1 mph at 0°Out: 70.0 mph at 5°Out: 69.2 mph at -39°Single: 70.5 mph at 26°Out: 88.5 mph at 45°Out: 91.7 mph at 36°Single: 89.5 mph at 14°
30% hit 95+ mph38% in the sweet spot38% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit63.4%63.2%+0.3
2+ total bases35.4%35.5%-0.1
Home run7.8%8.3%-0.5
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+0.3
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.0
Park
+0.0
2+ total bases
Starter
-0.1
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.0
Park
+0.0
Home run
Starter
-0.5
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.0
Park
+0.0

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Konnor Griffin · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G510.200.200.500.375.34820.0%0.0%17.6%93.3108.10.0%75.0%37.5%
Last 15 G1544.214.250.333.289.28718.2%4.5%17.0%89.7109.43.1%46.9%21.9%
Last 30 G2575.211.253.296.264.25824.0%5.3%23.1%86.1110.02.0%41.2%25.5%
90 days2575.211.253.296.264.25824.0%5.3%23.1%86.1110.02.0%41.2%25.5%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 51 balls in play
Ground 59%Line drive 16%Fly ball 22%Pop-up 4%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G511.300.364.300.309.3729.1%9.1%20.0%86.8107.90.0%11.1%55.6%
Last 15 G1325.435.480.565.458.4718.0%8.0%15.0%88.6107.90.0%19.0%61.9%
Last 30 G2038.361.395.444.372.40215.8%5.3%18.1%90.0112.73.3%30.0%56.7%
90 days2038.361.395.444.372.40215.8%5.3%18.1%90.0112.73.3%30.0%56.7%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 30 balls in play
Ground 33%Line drive 40%Fly ball 27%Pop-up 0%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G521.250.286.400.340.36014.3%4.8%19.1%89.9108.10.0%41.2%47.1%
Last 15 G1569.292.333.415.352.35614.5%5.8%16.2%89.2109.41.9%35.8%37.7%
Last 30 G25113.262.301.346.301.30821.2%5.3%21.2%87.6112.72.5%37.0%37.0%
90 days25113.262.301.346.301.30821.2%5.3%21.2%87.6112.72.5%37.0%37.0%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 81 balls in play
Ground 49%Line drive 25%Fly ball 24%Pop-up 3%
Konnor Griffin · percentile ranksvs 304 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormNormal
Contact rating39Below average
Last 100 pitches96trending up
wOBA / xwOBA.291 / .305results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit9/12
2+ total bases7/12
Home run0/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 24LHPFastball90.174.125.789Single
Sep 24LHPFastball95.586.415.893Single
Sep 24LHPChangeup79.976.83.174Out
Sep 23LHPCurveball79.473.014.393Out
Sep 23LHPCutter91.6107.9-2.432Out
Sep 23RHPFastball98.999.235.538Out
Sep 23LHPSlider83.490.940.013Out
Sep 22RHPSinker94.9108.17.673Triple
Sep 22LHPFastball92.189.221.327Single
Sep 22RHPSinker94.952.915.166Out
Sep 20RHPSinker93.2102.51.456Fielder's choice
Sep 20RHPCutter88.6100.918.494Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 24422001
Sep 23400000
Sep 22424001
Sep 20512001
Sep 19400010
Sep 18544000
Sep 17512011
Sep 16523001
Sep 15511001
Sep 13511000

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeAvgBalanced type
wOBA.310
K%22.2%
BB%6.9%
Whiff%10.9%
Barrel%3.8%
Hard-hit%26.2%
Avg EV88.1

Against right-handers, last 90 days

75 PA
wOBA.276
xwOBA vs this mix.272against pitches like his
RV/100-1.54
Hard-hit%27.6%
K%23.6%
BB%5.9%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Justin VerlanderRHP · DET vs PIT
4.1projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 7 · 19.4 batters over 4.6 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 42.2%42%≤34 strikeouts: 19.5%19%45 strikeouts: 15.8%16%56 strikeouts: 10.7%11%67 strikeouts: 6.2%6%78 strikeouts: 3.2%3%89+ strikeouts: 2.4%2%9+book 4.5
Over 4.5: 38% (red bars) · under: 62%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%–
BB%–
Whiff%–
Velo–
BTB Stuff–
Location–

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Justin Verlander DET · RHPvsPIT lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

2 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.6%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gamePIT @ DET →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Konnor Griffin: every projection we've made →