MLBengine v14
← PIT at DET, Sep 26, 2026
12:10 PM CT · Comerica Park · lineup projected
Hitter · PIT · batting 5Nick Gonzales
Bats rightTalent grade BContactNormal
.373wOBA vs RHP.337xwOBA vs his mix3.7expected PA
Starter · DETJustin Verlander
Throws rightStable
4.1projected K–K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Nick Gonzales's last 40 balls in playHit (11)Out (29)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 47.1 mph at -14°Single: 92.5 mph at 6°Out: 93.7 mph at 49°Single: 85.9 mph at -2°Out: 103.4 mph at 33°Out: 102.7 mph at -12°Out: 94.3 mph at 40°Out: 27.9 mph at 29°Out: 94.0 mph at 40°Double: 85.2 mph at 6°Out: 91.8 mph at -14°Out: 83.4 mph at 8°Out: 92.1 mph at 47°Out: 89.8 mph at 26°Single: 99.6 mph at 8°Out: 99.7 mph at 5°Single: 99.8 mph at 14°Single: 96.0 mph at -5°Out: 90.3 mph at -1°Double: 96.7 mph at 33°Out: 93.9 mph at -3°Out: 87.4 mph at 27°Out: 99.3 mph at -17°Out: 85.6 mph at 3°Single: 88.9 mph at 9°Double: 97.5 mph at 30°Out: 99.8 mph at 35°Out: 89.0 mph at -14°Out: 86.8 mph at 63°Out: 94.8 mph at -11°Single: 100.6 mph at 15°Out: 92.3 mph at 59°Out: 66.3 mph at 8°Out: 102.0 mph at -4°Out: 32.0 mph at -26°Out: 94.7 mph at -7°Double: 80.8 mph at 32°Out: 79.0 mph at -9°Out: 69.7 mph at 7°Out: 93.9 mph at 7°
30% hit 95+ mph28% in the sweet spot28% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit67.3%67.0%+0.3
2+ total bases35.2%35.2%+0.0
Home run5.7%6.0%-0.3
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+0.3
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.0
Park
+0.0
2+ total bases
Starter
+0.0
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.0
Park
+0.0
Home run
Starter
-0.4
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
0.0
Park
+0.0

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Nick Gonzales · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G512.091.167.091.133.19016.7%0.0%20.8%85.6102.70.0%11.1%33.3%
Last 15 G1537.147.216.176.193.28918.9%5.4%19.7%86.3102.73.8%26.9%34.6%
Last 30 G2979.304.392.348.346.33815.2%10.1%16.3%85.6105.41.8%26.8%35.7%
90 days65187.319.406.411.382.34116.0%10.2%20.2%87.0105.72.3%32.8%35.9%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 131 balls in play
Ground 53%Line drive 18%Fly ball 26%Pop-up 4%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G48.429.500.571.469.41812.5%12.5%14.3%85.5103.416.7%33.3%16.7%
Last 15 G1223.350.435.500.411.3568.7%8.7%20.9%89.8103.45.6%38.9%22.2%
Last 30 G2348.256.396.359.348.3568.3%12.5%17.1%87.4103.52.9%34.3%37.1%
90 days51107.289.355.392.334.30611.2%6.5%18.4%86.4104.61.2%29.4%40.0%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 85 balls in play
Ground 46%Line drive 26%Fly ball 25%Pop-up 4%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G520.222.300.278.267.28115.0%5.0%18.4%85.6103.46.7%20.0%26.7%
Last 15 G1560.222.300.296.278.31515.0%6.7%20.2%87.8103.44.5%31.8%29.5%
Last 30 G30127.287.394.352.346.34512.6%11.0%16.6%86.3105.42.2%29.7%36.3%
90 days69294.308.388.404.365.32814.3%8.8%19.6%86.7105.71.9%31.5%37.5%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 216 balls in play
Ground 50%Line drive 21%Fly ball 26%Pop-up 4%
Nick Gonzales · percentile ranksvs 304 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormNormal
Contact rating71Above average
Last 100 pitches27trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.364 / .337running 26 points ahead of his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit9/12
2+ total bases4/12
Home run0/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 24LHPFastball90.847.1-14.169Force out
Sep 24RHPSlider90.092.56.429Single
Sep 24RHPSinker94.293.749.012Out
Sep 23LHPSinker93.085.9-2.195Single
Sep 23LHPSlider84.0103.4331.180Out
Sep 23RHPSinker93.2102.7-12.282Out
Sep 20RHPFastball92.994.340.030Out
Sep 20RHPFastball93.527.929.271Out
Sep 20RHPSinker92.794.040.030Out
Sep 19LHPChangeup79.785.26.374Double
Sep 19LHPCutter88.491.8-14.148Out
Sep 19RHPSlider90.983.48.369Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 24411010
Sep 23411001
Sep 20400001
Sep 19412001
Sep 18411000
Sep 17400003
Sep 15422010
Sep 13412001
Sep 11411010
Sep 10412001

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeBContact type
wOBA.342
K%14.7%
BB%7.9%
Whiff%9.9%
Barrel%1.9%
Hard-hit%24.2%
Avg EV87.1

Against right-handers, last 90 days

183 PA
wOBA.373
xwOBA vs this mix.337against pitches like his
RV/1001.37
Hard-hit%23.8%
K%15.9%
BB%8.3%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Justin VerlanderRHP · DET vs PIT
4.1projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 7 · 19.4 batters over 4.6 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 42.2%42%≤34 strikeouts: 19.5%19%45 strikeouts: 15.8%16%56 strikeouts: 10.7%11%67 strikeouts: 6.2%6%78 strikeouts: 3.2%3%89+ strikeouts: 2.4%2%9+book 4.5
Over 4.5: 38% (red bars) · under: 62%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%–
BB%–
Whiff%–
Velo–
BTB Stuff–
Location–

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Justin Verlander DET · RHPvsPIT lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

2 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.6%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gamePIT @ DET →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Nick Gonzales: every projection we've made →