MLBengine v14
← PIT at DET, Sep 26, 2026
12:10 PM CT · Comerica Park · lineup projected
Hitter · PIT · batting 1Oneil Cruz
Bats leftTalent grade ABalancedHot
.429wOBA vs RHP.372xwOBA vs his mix4.0expected PA
Starter · DETJustin Verlander
Throws rightStable
4.1projected K–K%2.7trips vs this hitter
Oneil Cruz's last 40 balls in playHit (20)Out (20)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Single: 111.3 mph at 7°Out: 88.0 mph at 48°Double: 108.9 mph at 14°Out: 103.3 mph at -5°Out: 66.1 mph at -69°Out: 81.2 mph at 31°Out: 110.9 mph at 51°Home run: 104.5 mph at 32°Out: 75.4 mph at -35°Out: 54.5 mph at 33°Single: 95.3 mph at 8°Single: 70.6 mph at 43°Single: 51.7 mph at -60°Out: 88.1 mph at 4°Double: 98.6 mph at 3°Single: 81.1 mph at -53°Single: 84.8 mph at 10°Out: 74.0 mph at -54°Out: 86.3 mph at -25°Home run: 113.1 mph at 19°Single: 76.4 mph at -45°Out: 93.7 mph at -33°Single: 81.8 mph at 16°Out: 100.8 mph at -16°Out: 95.5 mph at 40°Out: 95.2 mph at 19°Out: 84.0 mph at 5°Out: 107.4 mph at -6°Single: 79.3 mph at 17°Out: 88.5 mph at 24°Home run: 117.4 mph at 25°Single: 99.6 mph at -33°Single: 80.7 mph at 9°Single: 95.5 mph at 9°Out: 61.3 mph at 17°Out: 76.3 mph at -6°Single: 85.9 mph at 5°Out: 101.8 mph at -15°Single: 115.9 mph at 5°Double: 111.2 mph at 18°
45% hit 95+ mph38% in the sweet spot50% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit60.3%59.2%+1.0
2+ total bases36.5%35.5%+1.0
Home run16.2%15.3%+0.9
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+1.1
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
+0.0
2+ total bases
Starter
+1.0
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
+0.1
Home run
Starter
+0.9
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
+0.1

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Oneil Cruz · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G513.364.462.727.565.41715.4%7.7%25.0%83.0110.911.1%33.3%33.3%
Last 15 G1437.273.351.606.439.38127.0%8.1%35.7%88.9117.418.2%45.5%36.4%
Last 30 G2775.290.413.565.440.37826.7%16.0%30.3%89.6117.417.1%39.0%39.0%
90 days2878.292.410.600.449.38928.2%15.4%29.7%90.0117.419.0%40.5%40.5%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 42 balls in play
Ground 52%Line drive 19%Fly ball 24%Pop-up 5%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G48.500.500.625.494.31212.5%0.0%0.0%91.8111.30.0%57.1%14.3%
Last 15 G1327.440.481.480.431.33118.5%7.4%9.8%88.9115.90.0%40.0%35.0%
Last 30 G2554.340.389.420.361.28631.5%7.4%25.3%90.5115.96.1%42.4%33.3%
90 days2554.340.389.420.361.28631.5%7.4%25.3%90.5115.96.1%42.4%33.3%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 33 balls in play
Ground 64%Line drive 24%Fly ball 12%Pop-up 0%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G521.421.476.684.538.37714.3%4.8%14.3%86.8111.36.2%43.8%25.0%
Last 15 G1564.345.406.552.436.36023.4%7.8%24.7%88.9117.49.5%42.9%35.7%
Last 30 G30129.312.403.500.406.33928.7%12.4%28.2%90.0117.412.2%40.5%36.5%
90 days31132.313.402.522.412.34629.5%12.1%27.9%90.3117.413.3%41.3%37.3%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 75 balls in play
Ground 57%Line drive 21%Fly ball 19%Pop-up 3%
Oneil Cruz · percentile ranksvs 304 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormHot
Contact rating82Excellent
Last 100 pitches96trending up
wOBA / xwOBA.412 / .354running 58 points ahead of his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit9/12
2+ total bases6/12
Home run3/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 24LHPFastball90.3111.37.683Single
Sep 24LHPFastball95.688.048.008Out
Sep 24RHPChangeup88.7108.914.834Double
Sep 24LHPFastball90.1103.3-5.378Out
Sep 22RHPCurveball77.066.1-69.254Out
Sep 22RHPCurveball80.481.231.093Out
Sep 20RHPCutter88.7110.951.142Out
Sep 20RHPCurveball75.2104.5321.566Home run
Sep 20LHPSinker90.275.4-35.057Out
Sep 20RHPSlider86.354.533.165Out
Sep 19LHPSinker92.495.38.576Single
Sep 19LHPSlider86.870.643.350Single
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 24423000
Sep 22400011
Sep 20414100
Sep 19422001
Sep 18534001
Sep 17511002
Sep 16525102
Sep 15400004
Sep 13511030
Sep 12500001

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeABalanced type
wOBA.353
K%29.6%
BB%11.6%
Whiff%10.7%
Barrel%7.8%
Hard-hit%26.6%
Avg EV91.9

Against right-handers, last 90 days

78 PA
wOBA.429
xwOBA vs this mix.372against pitches like his
RV/1001.87
Hard-hit%22.5%
K%27.7%
BB%11.6%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Justin VerlanderRHP · DET vs PIT
4.1projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 7 · 19.4 batters over 4.6 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 42.2%42%≤34 strikeouts: 19.5%19%45 strikeouts: 15.8%16%56 strikeouts: 10.7%11%67 strikeouts: 6.2%6%78 strikeouts: 3.2%3%89+ strikeouts: 2.4%2%9+book 4.5
Over 4.5: 38% (red bars) · under: 62%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%–
BB%–
Whiff%–
Velo–
BTB Stuff–
Location–

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Justin Verlander DET · RHPvsPIT lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

2 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.6%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gamePIT @ DET →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Oneil Cruz: every projection we've made →