MLBengine v14
← PIT at DET, Sep 26, 2026
12:10 PM CT · Comerica Park · lineup projected
Hitter · PIT · batting 4Ryan O'Hearn
Bats leftTalent grade BBalancedNormal
.375wOBA vs RHP.336xwOBA vs his mix3.8expected PA
Starter · DETJustin Verlander
Throws rightStable
4.1projected K–K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Ryan O'Hearn's last 40 balls in playHit (9)Out (31)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 103.4 mph at 37°Out: 100.2 mph at 22°Double: 99.3 mph at 45°Double: 96.8 mph at 22°Out: 69.8 mph at 12°Single: 88.9 mph at 6°Out: 101.9 mph at 4°Out: 91.1 mph at -8°Out: 61.8 mph at 64°Single: 103.6 mph at 2°Out: 88.8 mph at 6°Out: 62.8 mph at 63°Out: 69.5 mph at 2°Out: 92.8 mph at -11°Out: 88.3 mph at 8°Single: 103.2 mph at 13°Out: 90.4 mph at -29°Single: 77.7 mph at 20°Single: 89.3 mph at -33°Out: 94.0 mph at 10°Out: 79.0 mph at -31°Out: 93.8 mph at 5°Out: 89.6 mph at 10°Home run: 99.8 mph at 37°Out: 80.7 mph at -18°Out: 65.9 mph at -16°Out: 100.4 mph at 37°Out: 97.8 mph at 51°Out: 69.2 mph at 62°Single: 86.8 mph at -10°Out: 92.2 mph at -24°Out: 78.7 mph at -5°Out: 97.4 mph at 26°Out: 86.4 mph at 73°Out: 91.3 mph at 48°Out: 72.2 mph at -18°Out: 99.8 mph at -11°Out: 79.3 mph at -34°Out: 95.2 mph at 37°Out: 96.2 mph at 19°
35% hit 95+ mph25% in the sweet spot23% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit61.3%60.8%+0.5
2+ total bases36.7%36.3%+0.4
Home run12.2%11.8%+0.4
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+0.5
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
+0.0
2+ total bases
Starter
+0.5
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
+0.1
Home run
Starter
+0.4
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
+0.1

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Ryan O'Hearn · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G511.200.273.200.309.31518.2%9.1%17.4%85.4103.612.5%37.5%12.5%
Last 15 G1340.250.325.389.340.26815.0%7.5%23.2%86.0103.63.3%30.0%26.7%
Last 30 G2569.200.290.333.293.27721.7%8.7%23.1%86.7104.36.5%39.1%26.1%
90 days35105.269.343.495.373.34020.0%8.6%21.5%88.6105.911.1%43.1%37.5%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 72 balls in play
Ground 35%Line drive 18%Fly ball 32%Pop-up 15%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G38.286.375.571.400.25937.5%12.5%50.0%96.3100.20.0%75.0%50.0%
Last 15 G921.105.190.211.186.24919.0%9.5%25.0%90.0100.20.0%33.3%26.7%
Last 30 G2052.174.269.239.239.29019.2%7.7%21.6%89.5102.55.6%36.1%36.1%
90 days2762.182.274.291.259.28519.4%8.1%19.6%88.8103.94.7%34.9%37.2%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 43 balls in play
Ground 54%Line drive 23%Fly ball 21%Pop-up 2%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G519.235.316.353.347.29126.3%10.5%28.6%89.0103.68.3%50.0%25.0%
Last 15 G1561.200.279.327.287.26116.4%8.2%23.8%87.3103.62.2%31.1%26.7%
Last 30 G30121.189.281.292.270.28320.7%8.3%22.4%87.9104.36.1%37.8%30.5%
90 days40167.236.317.419.330.31919.8%8.4%20.8%88.6105.98.7%40.0%37.4%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 115 balls in play
Ground 42%Line drive 20%Fly ball 28%Pop-up 10%
Ryan O'Hearn · percentile ranksvs 304 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormNormal
Contact rating61Average
Last 100 pitches55trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.331 / .328results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit7/12
2+ total bases3/12
Home run1/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 24RHPSinker95.1103.437.824Out
Sep 24LHPFastball94.2100.222.555Out
Sep 23LHPFastball92.399.345.045Double
Sep 23LHPFastball93.396.822.357Double
Sep 23RHPSweeper85.869.812.309Out
Sep 22RHPFastball95.588.96.414Single
Sep 22RHPFastball97.3101.94.554Fielder's choice
Sep 22RHPSlider89.291.1-8.162Out
Sep 20RHPCutter88.961.864.003Out
Sep 20RHPFastball96.5103.62.500Single
Sep 19LHPFastball92.588.86.414Out
Sep 19RHPCutter93.762.863.003Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 24400011
Sep 23324000
Sep 22411001
Sep 20411011
Sep 19400002
Sep 18500011
Sep 16422000
Sep 15411011
Sep 13400001
Sep 12414101

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeBBalanced type
wOBA.347
K%20.4%
BB%9.3%
Whiff%10.3%
Barrel%5.5%
Hard-hit%27.9%
Avg EV88.9

Against right-handers, last 90 days

102 PA
wOBA.375
xwOBA vs this mix.336against pitches like his
RV/1000.67
Hard-hit%29.9%
K%21.0%
BB%8.6%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Justin VerlanderRHP · DET vs PIT
4.1projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 7 · 19.4 batters over 4.6 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 42.2%42%≤34 strikeouts: 19.5%19%45 strikeouts: 15.8%16%56 strikeouts: 10.7%11%67 strikeouts: 6.2%6%78 strikeouts: 3.2%3%89+ strikeouts: 2.4%2%9+book 4.5
Over 4.5: 38% (red bars) · under: 62%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%–
BB%–
Whiff%–
Velo–
BTB Stuff–
Location–

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Justin Verlander DET · RHPvsPIT lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

2 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.6%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gamePIT @ DET →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Ryan O'Hearn: every projection we've made →