MLBengine v14
← PIT at DET, Sep 26, 2026
12:10 PM CT · Comerica Park · lineup projected
Hitter · DET · batting 9Zach McKinstry
Bats leftTalent grade ——Normal
–wOBA vs RHP–xwOBA vs his mix3.3expected PA
Starter · PITTBD
Stable
4.3projected K–K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Zach McKinstry's last 40 balls in playHit (4)Out (36)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 100.7 mph at 42°Out: 101.7 mph at 17°Out: 54.3 mph at 21°Out: 96.7 mph at -9°Out: 95.6 mph at -11°Out: 72.4 mph at 17°Out: 92.3 mph at 39°Out: 74.3 mph at -34°Out: 98.6 mph at 4°Out: 30.0 mph at 21°Out: 78.6 mph at 62°Out: 95.8 mph at 36°Out: 86.4 mph at -30°Out: 84.0 mph at 51°Single: 94.5 mph at 17°Out: 86.6 mph at 4°Out: 85.9 mph at 21°Out: 89.8 mph at 55°Triple: 94.8 mph at 15°Out: 89.3 mph at 32°Out: 101.3 mph at -2°Out: 98.3 mph at 5°Out: 80.0 mph at -33°Out: 72.4 mph at 48°Single: 92.1 mph at 13°Out: 86.7 mph at -4°Out: 68.9 mph at 0°Out: 63.5 mph at 13°Out: 91.2 mph at 32°Out: 84.1 mph at 45°Single: 92.6 mph at 13°Out: 90.8 mph at 43°Out: 77.5 mph at 5°Out: 90.8 mph at 64°Out: 91.2 mph at 44°Out: 83.0 mph at 38°Out: 75.5 mph at -6°Out: 103.5 mph at 16°Out: 92.0 mph at -16°Out: 97.7 mph at 16°
25% hit 95+ mph35% in the sweet spot10% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit56.0%56.2%-0.3
2+ total bases27.5%27.7%-0.2
Home run4.2%4.1%+0.1
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
0.0
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.3
Park
+0.0
2+ total bases
Starter
0.0
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.2
Park
+0.0
Home run
Starter
0.0
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.0
Park
+0.1

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Zach McKinstry · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G59.000.111.000.078.21933.3%11.1%27.3%89.8101.70.0%80.0%40.0%
Last 15 G1536.097.222.161.192.28022.2%13.9%21.1%85.8101.70.0%30.4%30.4%
Last 30 G3072.129.250.194.217.26520.8%12.5%17.9%86.4101.70.0%23.4%34.0%
90 days65170.227.318.353.318.31414.7%10.6%16.6%87.1104.42.4%27.2%42.4%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 125 balls in play
Ground 36%Line drive 29%Fly ball 28%Pop-up 7%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G13.000.000.000.000.2570.0%0.0%0.0%79.792.30.0%0.0%33.3%
Last 15 G512.083.083.083.075.21516.7%0.0%14.3%82.9101.30.0%10.0%50.0%
Last 30 G1121.143.143.143.129.23019.0%0.0%12.2%83.9103.50.0%11.8%47.1%
90 days3154.180.226.200.233.26914.8%3.7%10.5%83.2104.80.0%16.3%41.9%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 43 balls in play
Ground 42%Line drive 28%Fly ball 23%Pop-up 7%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G512.000.083.000.058.22925.0%8.3%16.7%86.0101.70.0%50.0%37.5%
Last 15 G1548.093.188.140.162.26420.8%10.4%19.6%84.9101.70.0%24.2%36.4%
Last 30 G3093.133.226.181.197.25720.4%9.7%16.7%85.7103.50.0%20.3%37.5%
90 days66224.215.296.315.298.30314.7%8.9%15.2%86.1104.81.8%24.4%42.3%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 168 balls in play
Ground 38%Line drive 29%Fly ball 27%Pop-up 7%
Zach McKinstry · percentile ranksvs 304 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormNormal
Contact rating41Below average
Last 100 pitches29trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.291 / .308running 17 points behind his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit3/12
2+ total bases1/12
Home run0/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 23RHPSinker94.0100.742.220Out
Sep 21RHPCurveball80.8101.717.459Out
Sep 17RHPCutter92.854.321.159Out
Sep 17RHPSinker93.996.7-9.235Out
Sep 15RHPSinker94.595.6-11.200Out
Sep 15LHPSinker88.972.417.671Out
Sep 15LHPFastball93.292.339.039Out
Sep 15LHPCurveball87.174.3-34.062Out
Sep 14RHPCurveball86.498.64.457Out
Sep 14RHPFastball99.330.021.298Force out
Sep 14RHPSweeper82.678.662.013Out
Sep 13RHPSlider87.595.836.249Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 23200010
Sep 21100000
Sep 18200002
Sep 17200000
Sep 15500001
Sep 14400010
Sep 13400021
Sep 11300010
Sep 8311000
Sep 7313000

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent grade—— type
wOBA–
K%–
BB%–
Whiff%–
Barrel%–
Hard-hit%–
Avg EV–

Against right-handers, last 90 days

0 PA
wOBA–
xwOBA vs this mix–against pitches like his
RV/100–
Hard-hit%–
K%–
BB%–

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces

Starter not announced.

The rest of the gamePIT @ DET →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Zach McKinstry: every projection we've made →