MLBengine v14
← STL at MIL, Sep 26, 2026
6:10 PM CT · American Family Field · lineup projected
Hitter · STL · batting 3Alec Burleson
Bats leftTalent grade APowerCold
.365wOBA vs RHP.375xwOBA vs his mix3.8expected PA
Starter · MILDustin May
Throws rightBTB Stuff 107Trending Up
4.0projected K23%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Dustin May's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Cutter: 26% usage, 93.4 mph, -1.6″ arm side, +9.1″ rise. Alec Burleson: wOBA .376 vs league .361 (hitter's edge).Cutter 26%Sinker: 23% usage, 96.7 mph, +17.3″ arm side, +6.4″ rise. Alec Burleson: wOBA .362 vs league .347 (hitter's edge).Sinker 23%Fastball: 22% usage, 96.9 mph, +9.4″ arm side, +15.2″ rise. Alec Burleson: wOBA .359 vs league .345 (about even).Fastball 22%Sweeper: 16% usage, 86.3 mph, -15.4″ arm side, -3.7″ rise. Alec Burleson: wOBA .319 vs league .304 (hitter's edge).Sweeper 16%Curveball: 8% usage, 84.1 mph, -8.0″ arm side, -15.6″ rise. Alec Burleson: wOBA .288 vs league .273 (about even).Curveball 8%Changeup: 5% usage, 90.0 mph, +15.2″ arm side, +5.2″ rise. Alec Burleson: wOBA .299 vs league .283 (hitter's edge).Changeup 5%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Alec Burleson's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Alec Burleson's last 40 balls in playHit (14)Out (26)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 85.4 mph at 4°Out: 110.9 mph at 4°Home run: 104.6 mph at 33°Out: 94.8 mph at 80°Single: 86.8 mph at 21°Out: 96.3 mph at -12°Out: 94.1 mph at 46°Out: 94.0 mph at 37°Out: 96.2 mph at 72°Out: 87.7 mph at 45°Out: 54.6 mph at 12°Out: 70.1 mph at -11°Single: 99.6 mph at 8°Out: 101.3 mph at 5°Out: 101.9 mph at 17°Out: 102.1 mph at 22°Double: 106.8 mph at 13°Out: 83.8 mph at -41°Home run: 110.3 mph at 20°Single: 97.3 mph at 11°Single: 100.0 mph at -5°Out: 103.1 mph at 0°Out: 77.2 mph at -26°Double: 80.7 mph at 24°Out: 44.8 mph at -74°Out: 46.7 mph at 29°Out: 90.8 mph at -5°Single: 102.3 mph at 7°Double: 112.0 mph at 11°Out: 68.1 mph at -32°Out: 99.1 mph at 4°Out: 87.7 mph at 62°Single: 99.6 mph at 5°Home run: 109.5 mph at 31°Out: 99.1 mph at 0°Out: 102.5 mph at 42°Double: 102.1 mph at 16°Out: 101.8 mph at 31°Single: 100.9 mph at 17°Out: 90.0 mph at 36°
57% hit 95+ mph38% in the sweet spot35% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit68.4%68.0%+0.4
2+ total bases44.3%43.4%+0.9
Home run16.6%14.7%+1.9
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-0.3
Pitch mix
+1.0
Bullpen
-0.2
Park
-0.1
2+ total bases
Starter
+0.2
Pitch mix
+1.1
Bullpen
-0.4
Park
-0.1
Home run
Starter
+1.3
Pitch mix
+0.7
Bullpen
-0.5
Park
+0.4

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Pitch by pitch

Alec Burleson against each of Dustin May's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Cutter26%93.4-2″ / +9″.376.36117.6%17.8%30About league average vs these
Sinker23%96.7+17″ / +6″.362.34711.7%11.7%29About league average vs these
Fastball22%96.9+9″ / +15″.359.34517.2%18.0%53About league average vs these
Sweeper16%86.3-15″ / -4″.319.30429.7%28.1%11About league average vs these
Curveball8%84.1-8″ / -16″.288.27336.2%34.5%10About league average vs these
Changeup5%90.0+15″ / +5″.299.28320.7%26.9%26About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Alec Burleson · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G513.154.154.385.223.25230.8%0.0%18.4%96.6110.911.1%55.6%11.1%
Last 15 G1542.222.333.500.358.41628.6%14.3%23.7%96.9110.916.7%75.0%29.2%
Last 30 G2984.234.298.377.299.34323.8%8.3%21.7%93.6110.912.3%61.4%35.1%
90 days76214.290.360.487.373.39019.6%8.9%21.5%93.2110.914.6%56.3%39.1%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 151 balls in play
Ground 42%Line drive 25%Fly ball 21%Pop-up 12%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G56.167.167.167.150.11233.3%0.0%23.1%76.494.00.0%0.0%50.0%
Last 15 G1217.250.294.375.294.19523.5%5.9%12.9%81.3112.00.0%16.7%41.7%
Last 30 G2237.235.270.294.258.22821.6%5.4%19.1%85.6112.00.0%30.8%34.6%
90 days58106.242.283.364.293.29225.5%5.7%25.9%89.6112.05.6%40.3%33.3%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 72 balls in play
Ground 53%Line drive 25%Fly ball 18%Pop-up 4%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G519.158.158.316.200.20731.6%0.0%19.6%90.4110.97.7%38.5%23.1%
Last 15 G1559.231.322.462.340.35327.1%11.9%21.0%91.7112.011.1%55.6%33.3%
Last 30 G30121.234.289.351.287.30823.1%7.4%21.1%91.1112.08.4%51.8%34.9%
90 days79320.274.334.445.347.35721.6%7.8%22.9%92.1112.011.7%51.1%37.2%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 223 balls in play
Ground 45%Line drive 25%Fly ball 20%Pop-up 9%
Alec Burleson · percentile ranksvs 304 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormCold
Contact rating94Top tier
Last 100 pitches3trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.347 / .378running 31 points behind his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit8/12
2+ total bases6/12
Home run2/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 24RHPFastball96.985.44.293Out
Sep 24RHPSinker97.5110.94.606Out
Sep 24RHPFastball95.9104.6331.640Home run
Sep 23RHPChangeup85.794.880.010Out
Sep 23LHPSlider83.186.821.417Single
Sep 22RHPCurveball85.896.3-12.130Out
Sep 22RHPSlider90.394.146.003Out
Sep 22LHPSinker98.494.037.111Out
Sep 22RHPFastball99.096.272.003Out
Sep 20RHPCurveball78.587.745.006Out
Sep 20LHPSlider87.054.612.106Out
Sep 20LHPCurveball81.370.1-11.035Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 24414101
Sep 23511003
Sep 22400000
Sep 20400001
Sep 19211001
Sep 18300001
Sep 16512002
Sep 15314102
Sep 14422011
Sep 13312000

Two strikes

Dustin May MIL · RHPwith two strikes
Dustin May with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Sweeper16%26%17.0%16.9%19.3%
Fastball22%25%15.2%17.3%18.0%
Cutter26%18%27.5%22.4%17.9%
Sinker23%18%21.9%22.8%16.9%
Curveball8%8%38.5%18.5%20.1%
Changeup5%4%33.3%23.1%18.6%
Other0%0%–0.0%21.7%
Alec Burleson bats Lwith two strikes, vs this hand
Alec Burleson with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. About league average vs his two-strike stuff
With two strikesHimLeague
K%39.4%41.0%
Whiff%19.8%21.3%
Contact%80.2%78.7%
Chase%50.4%39.6%
wOBA.257.245
Whiff vs his put-away shapes19.2%20.7%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeAPower type
wOBA.348
K%21.0%
BB%7.8%
Whiff%12.5%
Barrel%7.8%
Hard-hit%34.9%
Avg EV91.7

Against right-handers, last 90 days

214 PA
wOBA.365
xwOBA vs this mix.375against pitches like his
RV/1000.99
Hard-hit%37.9%
K%20.2%
BB%7.8%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Dustin MayRHP · MIL vs STL
4.0projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 7 · 17.8 batters over 4.2 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 43.1%43%≤34 strikeouts: 19.4%19%45 strikeouts: 15.7%16%56 strikeouts: 10.4%10%67 strikeouts: 6.1%6%78 strikeouts: 3.0%3%89+ strikeouts: 2.3%2%9+book 4.5
Over 4.5: 38% (red bars) · under: 63%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%23.3%
BB%10.2%
Whiff%10.6%
Velo92.9
BTB Stuff107
Location97
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Cutter27%11293.313.1%
Sinker22%11296.68.3%
Fastball22%9796.910.2%
Sweeper16%11286.27.7%
Curveball8%10983.913.9%
Changeup5%8289.918.0%
Other0%––0.0%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 187027%14%20%.550
Sep 118427%14%27%.155
Sep 55633%21%33%.373

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Dustin May MIL · RHPvsSTL lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

1 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.6%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameSTL @ MIL →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Alec Burleson: every projection we've made →