STL at MIL, Sep 26, 2026

The game

STL runs4.4win 54%

MIL runs4.0win 46%

Total8.5book line 7.5

No run, 1st inning53%research only

Game totals, win probability and the first inning are research only: in the backtest they don't beat the league-wide rate. Shown as projections, never as plays.

Park and air

Carry: – vs neutral air
Weather: 58°F · Wind in · roof retractable
Park factor: Runs 96 · HR 102 100 = average

Air density from observed temperature, dew point and pressure. It shapes batted balls, not the run total directly.

STL starter

Quinn MathewsLHP · STL vs MIL

5.0projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 8 · 24.3 batters over 5.6 innings

Over 4.5: 56% (red bars) · under: 44%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.

K%20.4%

BB%9.4%

Whiff%10.8%

Velo87.3

BTB Stuff92

Location101

PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff

Fastball39%10593.49.2%

Slider23%8784.811.7%

Changeup17%6783.019.2%

Curveball13%9475.76.7%

Sinker9%9292.85.9%

Last 3 startsStable

Date	Pitches	K%	Whiff%	Hard-hit%	wOBA
Sep 20	96	10%	9%	38%	.327
Sep 14	99	32%	14%	4%	.231
Sep 8	99	16%	10%	32%	.338

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Quinn Mathews STL · LHPvsMIL lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

1 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

1Garrett Mitchell25%

2Brice Turang22%

3William Contreras15%

4Jake Bauers22%

5Gary Sánchez20%

6Luis Lara19%

7Cooper Pratt23%

8Sal Frelick16%

9Joey Ortiz23%

Strikeout rate against left-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.6%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

MIL starter

Dustin MayRHP · MIL vs STL

4.0projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 7 · 17.8 batters over 4.2 innings

Over 4.5: 38% (red bars) · under: 63%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.

K%23.3%

BB%10.2%

Whiff%10.6%

Velo92.9

BTB Stuff107

Location97

PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff

Cutter27%11293.313.1%

Sinker22%11296.68.3%

Fastball22%9796.910.2%

Sweeper16%11286.27.7%

Curveball8%10983.913.9%

Changeup5%8289.918.0%

Other0%––0.0%

Last 3 startsTrending Up

Date	Pitches	K%	Whiff%	Hard-hit%	wOBA
Sep 18	70	27%	14%	20%	.550
Sep 11	84	27%	14%	27%	.155
Sep 5	56	33%	21%	33%	.373

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Dustin May MIL · RHPvsSTL lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

1 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

1JJ Wetherholt18%

2Iván Herrera24%

3Alec Burleson20%

4Jordan Walker27%

5Leo Bernal23%

6Bryan Torres23%

7Thomas Saggese18%

8Nathan Church14%

9Masyn Winn23%

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.6%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

Pitch-mix battles

each lineup against the starter it faces

Dustin May MIL · RHPvsSTL lineuppitch-mix battle

Dustin May's whiff and run value per 100 pitches next to what this lineup has done against the same pitch type. Edge is positive when the pitch favors the hitters.
	Dustin May's pitches					STL lineup vs that pitch
Pitch	Usage	Velo	BTB Stuff	Whiff%	RV/100	wOBA	Whiff%	Hard-hit%	Edge
Cutter	27%	93.3	112	13.1%	1.24	.327	10.8%	27.7%	-0.28
Sinker	22%	96.6	112	8.3%	-0.47	.323	5.5%	36.6%	+0.24
Fastball	22%	96.9	97	10.2%	-0.72	.301	8.9%	32.2%	-0.08
Sweeper	16%	86.2	112	7.7%	-1.53	.281	13.0%	20.5%	-0.12
Curveball	8%	83.9	109	13.9%	0.35	.288	12.3%	24.1%	-0.17
Changeup	5%	89.9	82	18.0%	-0.71	.274	14.6%	20.6%	-0.13

Quinn Mathews STL · LHPvsMIL lineuppitch-mix battle

Quinn Mathews's whiff and run value per 100 pitches next to what this lineup has done against the same pitch type. Edge is positive when the pitch favors the hitters.
	Quinn Mathews's pitches					MIL lineup vs that pitch
Pitch	Usage	Velo	BTB Stuff	Whiff%	RV/100	wOBA	Whiff%	Hard-hit%	Edge
Fastball	39%	93.4	105	9.2%	-0.71	.405	9.0%	33.3%	+2.60
Slider	23%	84.8	87	11.7%	1.45	.311	13.9%	27.1%	-0.55
Changeup	17%	83.0	67	19.2%	0.12	.256	12.1%	21.8%	-0.60
Curveball	13%	75.7	94	6.7%	-1.48	.375	9.9%	23.0%	+0.76
Sinker	9%	92.8	92	5.9%	2.44	.317	4.6%	22.8%	-0.23

Bullpens

Cardinals bullpen#14 of 30

K%24.8%

BB%10.9%

K-BB%13.9%

SwStr%12.6%

wOBA allowed.333

Arms available16 / 16

No one pitched yesterday.

Ranked on a blend of K-BB% (60%) and wOBA allowed (40%) over the bullpen window. Tired arms are context: in our tests bullpen rest didn't improve run totals.

Brewers bullpen#15 of 30

K%21.6%

BB%10.0%

K-BB%11.5%

SwStr%9.4%

wOBA allowed.312

Arms available18 / 18

No one pitched yesterday.

Ranked on a blend of K-BB% (60%) and wOBA allowed (40%) over the bullpen window. Tired arms are context: in our tests bullpen rest didn't improve run totals.

Two strikes

how each starter finishes hitters

Quinn Mathews STL · LHPwith two strikes

Usage, overall to two strikesOverall Two strikes

Slider+10 pts

Fastball-7 pts

Changeup+6 pts

Curveball-4 pts

Sinker-4 pts

Quinn Mathews with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
Pitch	Overall	2 strikes	Whiff%	Put-away	League put-away
Slider	23%	32%	28.3%	15.9%	21.6%
Fastball	39%	32%	22.4%	15.0%	18.6%
Changeup	17%	22%	25.9%	12.5%	18.3%
Curveball	13%	10%	18.8%	16.7%	21.3%
Sinker	9%	4%	0.0%	27.3%	17.7%

Dustin May MIL · RHPwith two strikes

Usage, overall to two strikesOverall Two strikes

Sweeper+10 pts

Fastball+3 pts

Cutter-8 pts

Sinker-5 pts

Curveball+1 pts

Changeup-1 pts

Other+0 pts

Dustin May with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
Pitch	Overall	2 strikes	Whiff%	Put-away	League put-away
Sweeper	16%	26%	17.0%	16.9%	19.3%
Fastball	22%	25%	15.2%	17.3%	18.0%
Cutter	26%	18%	27.5%	22.4%	17.9%
Sinker	23%	18%	21.9%	22.8%	16.9%
Curveball	8%	8%	38.5%	18.5%	20.1%
Changeup	5%	4%	33.3%	23.1%	18.6%
Other	0%	0%	–	0.0%	21.7%

Cardinals lineup

Projected · facing Dustin May RHP

Matchup: points of 1+ hit chance against the same hitter facing a league-average starter, bullpen and park. wOBA vs hand: the last 90 days against pitchers of the starter's hand. Talent: season-level grade. Form is context and doesn't move a projection.
Spot	Hitter	1+ hit	2+ TB	HR	PA	Matchup (1+ hit)	wOBA vs hand	Talent grade	Type	Form
1	JJ Wetherholt 2B · bats L	62.8%	38.9%	14.1%	4.0	-0.6	.315	C	Power	Normal
2	Iván Herrera C · bats R	60.4%	33.7%	10.3%	3.9	-1.0	.302	C	Balanced	Normal
3	Alec Burleson 1B · bats L	68.4%	44.3%	16.6%	3.8	+0.4	.365	A	Power	Cold
4	Jordan Walker RF · bats R	58.1%	33.9%	12.0%	3.8	-0.6	.320	B	Power	Normal
5	Leo Bernal DH · bats S	64.1%	38.1%	14.1%	3.7	-0.2	.360	B	Power	Cold
6	Bryan Torres LF · bats L	55.3%	29.2%	8.4%	3.6	-1.3	.296	F	Balanced	Cold
7	Thomas Saggese 3B · bats R	59.4%	32.1%	9.7%	3.5	-0.8	.337	C	Balanced	Normal
8	Nathan Church CF · bats L	59.6%	28.6%	7.1%	3.4	-1.4	.292	F	Balanced	Hot
9	Masyn Winn SS · bats R	50.7%	24.1%	5.4%	3.3	-1.3	.279	D	Balanced	Cold

Brewers lineup

Projected · facing Quinn Mathews LHP