MLBengine v14
← STL at MIL, Sep 26, 2026
6:10 PM CT · American Family Field · lineup projected
Hitter · STL · batting 2Iván Herrera
Bats rightTalent grade CBalancedNormal
.302wOBA vs RHP.287xwOBA vs his mix3.9expected PA
Starter · MILDustin May
Throws rightBTB Stuff 107Trending Up
4.0projected K23%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Dustin May's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Cutter: 26% usage, 93.4 mph, -1.6″ arm side, +9.1″ rise. Iván Herrera: wOBA .314 vs league .322 (about even).Cutter 26%Sinker: 23% usage, 96.7 mph, +17.3″ arm side, +6.4″ rise. Iván Herrera: wOBA .331 vs league .338 (about even).Sinker 23%Fastball: 22% usage, 96.9 mph, +9.4″ arm side, +15.2″ rise. Iván Herrera: wOBA .339 vs league .347 (about even).Fastball 22%Sweeper: 16% usage, 86.3 mph, -15.4″ arm side, -3.7″ rise. Iván Herrera: wOBA .269 vs league .276 (about even).Sweeper 16%Curveball: 8% usage, 84.1 mph, -8.0″ arm side, -15.6″ rise. Iván Herrera: wOBA .264 vs league .271 (about even).Curveball 8%Changeup: 5% usage, 90.0 mph, +15.2″ arm side, +5.2″ rise. Iván Herrera: wOBA .281 vs league .289 (about even).Changeup 5%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Iván Herrera's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Iván Herrera's last 40 balls in playHit (13)Out (27)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 58.9 mph at -23°Single: 77.7 mph at 21°Out: 104.8 mph at 34°Out: 90.6 mph at -13°Out: 92.7 mph at -19°Out: 77.3 mph at 56°Home run: 107.5 mph at 22°Home run: 111.1 mph at 25°Out: 101.2 mph at -11°Double: 94.7 mph at 25°Single: 94.9 mph at 10°Single: 70.2 mph at 21°Out: 79.3 mph at -27°Out: 88.9 mph at -21°Single: 90.1 mph at 12°Out: 103.4 mph at 19°Out: 58.1 mph at -15°Out: 103.5 mph at -16°Out: 100.6 mph at 21°Out: 103.6 mph at 4°Out: 98.1 mph at -15°Out: 99.0 mph at -20°Out: 96.7 mph at 25°Out: 92.2 mph at 21°Out: 93.3 mph at 39°Out: 77.8 mph at 42°Single: 88.3 mph at 2°Out: 94.9 mph at -9°Out: 81.4 mph at 1°Out: 105.7 mph at -5°Single: 95.4 mph at 14°Out: 92.0 mph at -40°Out: 63.3 mph at -12°Out: 71.5 mph at 5°Out: 91.4 mph at -16°Single: 79.2 mph at 16°Single: 81.0 mph at 9°Double: 95.7 mph at 17°Single: 94.7 mph at 0°Out: 46.3 mph at -27°
35% hit 95+ mph38% in the sweet spot33% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit60.4%61.4%-1.0
2+ total bases33.7%34.3%-0.6
Home run10.3%10.0%+0.4
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-0.9
Pitch mix
-0.1
Bullpen
+0.2
Park
-0.2
2+ total bases
Starter
-0.7
Pitch mix
-0.1
Bullpen
+0.3
Park
-0.1
Home run
Starter
+0.1
Pitch mix
-0.0
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
+0.2

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Pitch by pitch

Iván Herrera against each of Dustin May's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Cutter26%93.4-2″ / +9″.314.32218.1%24.2%39About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Sinker23%96.7+17″ / +6″.331.3388.7%12.2%45About league average vs these
Fastball22%96.9+9″ / +15″.339.34713.3%18.4%70About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Sweeper16%86.3-15″ / -4″.269.27625.5%27.5%20About league average vs these
Curveball8%84.1-8″ / -16″.264.27127.7%29.8%9About league average vs these
Changeup5%90.0+15″ / +5″.281.28930.2%30.0%21About league average vs these
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Iván Herrera · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G516.143.250.357.269.35543.8%0.0%39.3%86.0107.528.6%28.6%28.6%
Last 15 G1551.143.275.214.278.33127.5%9.8%24.1%88.7107.57.1%39.3%32.1%
Last 30 G2996.202.292.333.322.32427.1%8.3%21.7%89.2108.56.9%44.8%34.5%
90 days75237.219.278.344.297.28024.1%5.5%20.1%89.2109.84.4%40.6%28.8%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 160 balls in play
Ground 56%Line drive 21%Fly ball 16%Pop-up 8%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G57.667.7141.333.821.67414.3%14.3%15.4%95.9111.120.0%40.0%80.0%
Last 15 G812.400.500.800.537.48416.7%8.3%12.5%93.2111.112.5%25.0%50.0%
Last 30 G2036.355.444.484.412.34419.4%11.1%17.6%89.0111.14.2%25.0%37.5%
90 days53110.258.373.366.341.34817.3%12.7%18.1%88.3111.55.4%32.4%39.2%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 74 balls in play
Ground 37%Line drive 24%Fly ball 24%Pop-up 15%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G523.300.391.650.437.45234.8%4.3%31.7%90.1111.125.0%33.3%50.0%
Last 15 G1563.192.317.327.328.36025.4%9.5%21.4%89.7111.18.3%36.1%36.1%
Last 30 G30132.243.333.374.347.33025.0%9.1%20.4%89.1111.16.1%39.0%35.4%
90 days79347.231.308.351.311.30221.9%7.8%19.5%88.9111.54.7%38.0%32.1%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 234 balls in play
Ground 50%Line drive 22%Fly ball 18%Pop-up 10%
Iván Herrera · percentile ranksvs 304 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormNormal
Contact rating48Average
Last 100 pitches99trending up
wOBA / xwOBA.309 / .314results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit4/12
2+ total bases2/12
Home run1/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 24RHPSinker96.158.9-23.050Out
Sep 24LHPSinker96.677.721.860Single
Sep 23RHPSlider88.3104.8341.440Out
Sep 23RHPSweeper89.090.6-13.145Out
Sep 23RHPSplitter84.392.7-19.133Double play
Sep 20RHPSinker91.477.356.054Out
Sep 20RHPFastball93.6107.5221.517Home run
Sep 20LHPFastball97.8111.1252.000Home run
Sep 19LHPSlider84.9101.2-11.198Out
Sep 19LHPCurveball84.694.725.274Double
Sep 19LHPSinker90.794.910.689Single
Sep 19RHPSweeper82.770.221.877Single
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 24411002
Sep 23500010
Sep 22400004
Sep 20428201
Sep 19634001
Sep 18411001
Sep 16100010
Sep 15300001
Sep 14400010
Sep 13400001

Two strikes

Dustin May MIL · RHPwith two strikes
Dustin May with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Sweeper16%26%17.0%16.9%19.3%
Fastball22%25%15.2%17.3%18.0%
Cutter26%18%27.5%22.4%17.9%
Sinker23%18%21.9%22.8%16.9%
Curveball8%8%38.5%18.5%20.1%
Changeup5%4%33.3%23.1%18.6%
Other0%0%–0.0%21.7%
Iván Herrera bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
Iván Herrera with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. About league average vs his two-strike stuff
With two strikesHimLeague
K%40.8%42.4%
Whiff%20.9%22.2%
Contact%79.1%77.8%
Chase%43.2%39.8%
wOBA.226.238
Whiff vs his put-away shapes18.7%19.8%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeCBalanced type
wOBA.328
K%21.9%
BB%8.0%
Whiff%9.3%
Barrel%3.7%
Hard-hit%26.6%
Avg EV89.3

Against right-handers, last 90 days

233 PA
wOBA.302
xwOBA vs this mix.287against pitches like his
RV/100-0.45
Hard-hit%27.5%
K%24.1%
BB%7.9%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Dustin MayRHP · MIL vs STL
4.0projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 7 · 17.8 batters over 4.2 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 43.1%43%≤34 strikeouts: 19.4%19%45 strikeouts: 15.7%16%56 strikeouts: 10.4%10%67 strikeouts: 6.1%6%78 strikeouts: 3.0%3%89+ strikeouts: 2.3%2%9+book 4.5
Over 4.5: 38% (red bars) · under: 63%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%23.3%
BB%10.2%
Whiff%10.6%
Velo92.9
BTB Stuff107
Location97
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Cutter27%11293.313.1%
Sinker22%11296.68.3%
Fastball22%9796.910.2%
Sweeper16%11286.27.7%
Curveball8%10983.913.9%
Changeup5%8289.918.0%
Other0%––0.0%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 187027%14%20%.550
Sep 118427%14%27%.155
Sep 55633%21%33%.373

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Dustin May MIL · RHPvsSTL lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

1 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.6%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameSTL @ MIL →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Iván Herrera: every projection we've made →