MLBengine v14
← STL at MIL, Sep 26, 2026
6:10 PM CT · American Family Field · lineup projected
Hitter · STL · batting 1JJ Wetherholt
Bats leftTalent grade CPowerNormal
.315wOBA vs RHP.350xwOBA vs his mix4.0expected PA
Starter · MILDustin May
Throws rightBTB Stuff 107Trending Up
4.0projected K23%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Dustin May's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Cutter: 26% usage, 93.4 mph, -1.6″ arm side, +9.1″ rise. JJ Wetherholt: wOBA .358 vs league .361 (about even).Cutter 26%Sinker: 23% usage, 96.7 mph, +17.3″ arm side, +6.4″ rise. JJ Wetherholt: wOBA .344 vs league .347 (about even).Sinker 23%Fastball: 22% usage, 96.9 mph, +9.4″ arm side, +15.2″ rise. JJ Wetherholt: wOBA .342 vs league .345 (about even).Fastball 22%Sweeper: 16% usage, 86.3 mph, -15.4″ arm side, -3.7″ rise. JJ Wetherholt: wOBA .301 vs league .304 (about even).Sweeper 16%Curveball: 8% usage, 84.1 mph, -8.0″ arm side, -15.6″ rise. JJ Wetherholt: wOBA .270 vs league .273 (about even).Curveball 8%Changeup: 5% usage, 90.0 mph, +15.2″ arm side, +5.2″ rise. JJ Wetherholt: wOBA .280 vs league .283 (about even).Changeup 5%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is JJ Wetherholt's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

JJ Wetherholt's last 40 balls in playHit (15)Out (25)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 95.5 mph at -10°Double: 98.5 mph at 25°Single: 51.5 mph at -53°Out: 102.8 mph at 32°Single: 97.0 mph at 0°Single: 86.0 mph at 20°Single: 101.3 mph at 6°Out: 95.8 mph at 33°Out: 85.0 mph at 5°Single: 89.5 mph at 20°Out: 75.2 mph at -36°Out: 52.6 mph at -40°Single: 100.7 mph at 9°Single: 88.3 mph at 7°Out: 99.1 mph at 36°Out: 74.7 mph at 46°Out: 96.1 mph at 30°Out: 88.3 mph at -20°Out: 69.7 mph at 50°Out: 87.7 mph at -12°Out: 85.9 mph at -16°Out: 60.7 mph at -51°Out: 81.1 mph at 6°Out: 104.5 mph at 22°Out: 97.6 mph at 25°Out: 98.8 mph at -10°Single: 99.7 mph at 15°Single: 101.5 mph at 8°Out: 89.4 mph at 0°Single: 102.0 mph at 11°Out: 78.9 mph at 14°Single: 75.4 mph at -44°Out: 98.2 mph at 24°Single: 103.5 mph at 10°Out: 98.4 mph at 6°Home run: 103.8 mph at 29°Out: 102.5 mph at 25°Out: 96.2 mph at 40°Single: 98.7 mph at 14°Out: 99.1 mph at 39°
57% hit 95+ mph43% in the sweet spot38% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit62.8%63.4%-0.6
2+ total bases38.9%38.9%-0.1
Home run14.1%12.9%+1.3
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-0.6
Pitch mix
+0.3
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
-0.2
2+ total bases
Starter
+0.1
Pitch mix
+0.3
Bullpen
-0.4
Park
-0.1
Home run
Starter
+1.2
Pitch mix
+0.2
Bullpen
-0.4
Park
+0.3

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Pitch by pitch

JJ Wetherholt against each of Dustin May's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Cutter26%93.4-2″ / +9″.358.36116.2%17.8%23About league average vs these
Sinker23%96.7+17″ / +6″.344.34710.6%11.7%33About league average vs these
Fastball22%96.9+9″ / +15″.342.34516.2%18.0%50About league average vs these
Sweeper16%86.3-15″ / -4″.301.30427.7%28.1%7Little history vs this shape
Curveball8%84.1-8″ / -16″.270.27333.9%34.5%6Little history vs this shape
Changeup5%90.0+15″ / +5″.280.28320.3%26.9%20About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
JJ Wetherholt · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G514.385.429.462.396.38821.4%7.1%15.4%94.1102.810.0%70.0%40.0%
Last 15 G1540.270.325.297.286.36725.0%5.0%22.5%93.5104.57.4%66.7%40.7%
Last 30 G2882.257.366.314.317.37222.0%12.2%18.8%92.9105.57.7%59.6%38.5%
90 days56166.237.361.295.321.35416.9%13.3%18.7%90.6105.54.5%47.7%32.4%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 111 balls in play
Ground 57%Line drive 18%Fly ball 22%Pop-up 4%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G44.500.500.500.450.23225.0%0.0%20.0%63.486.00.0%0.0%33.3%
Last 15 G1119.263.263.421.342.37826.3%0.0%14.7%84.8103.814.3%42.9%42.9%
Last 30 G2345.190.244.286.259.33017.8%6.7%11.0%85.6104.68.8%32.4%41.2%
90 days49103.219.272.365.310.34519.4%6.8%14.0%87.9105.210.5%43.4%42.1%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 76 balls in play
Ground 43%Line drive 18%Fly ball 36%Pop-up 3%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G518.412.444.471.408.35322.2%5.6%16.1%87.0102.87.7%53.8%38.5%
Last 15 G1559.268.305.339.304.37025.4%3.4%20.0%90.5104.59.8%58.5%41.5%
Last 30 G30127.232.323.304.296.35720.5%10.2%16.0%90.0105.58.1%48.8%39.5%
90 days62269.230.327.323.317.35117.8%10.8%16.8%89.5105.57.0%46.0%36.4%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 187 balls in play
Ground 51%Line drive 18%Fly ball 27%Pop-up 3%
JJ Wetherholt · percentile ranksvs 304 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormNormal
Contact rating90Top tier
Last 100 pitches81trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.309 / .366running 57 points behind his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit8/12
2+ total bases3/12
Home run0/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 24RHPSplitter92.395.5-10.181Double play
Sep 24RHPSweeper84.298.525.578Double
Sep 24LHPSinker96.251.5-53.240Single
Sep 24RHPFastball95.8102.8321.233Out
Sep 23RHPFastball96.897.00.374Single
Sep 23LHPSlider83.886.020.528Single
Sep 23RHPFastball89.9101.36.562Single
Sep 22RHPSlider88.195.833.285Out
Sep 20RHPFastball93.985.05.368Out
Sep 20RHPCurveball78.889.520.475Single
Sep 20RHPCurveball77.875.2-36.061Out
Sep 20LHPFastball96.152.6-40.162Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 24423000
Sep 23533011
Sep 22400003
Sep 20411000
Sep 19111000
Sep 18411002
Sep 16300001
Aug 29400000
Aug 28400002
Aug 26511010

Two strikes

Dustin May MIL · RHPwith two strikes
Dustin May with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Sweeper16%26%17.0%16.9%19.3%
Fastball22%25%15.2%17.3%18.0%
Cutter26%18%27.5%22.4%17.9%
Sinker23%18%21.9%22.8%16.9%
Curveball8%8%38.5%18.5%20.1%
Changeup5%4%33.3%23.1%18.6%
Other0%0%–0.0%21.7%
JJ Wetherholt bats Lwith two strikes, vs this hand
JJ Wetherholt with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. About league average vs his two-strike stuff
With two strikesHimLeague
K%36.8%41.0%
Whiff%19.2%21.3%
Contact%80.8%78.7%
Chase%34.6%39.6%
wOBA.243.245
Whiff vs his put-away shapes18.9%20.7%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeCPower type
wOBA.315
K%18.8%
BB%10.3%
Whiff%7.2%
Barrel%4.9%
Hard-hit%30.5%
Avg EV89.3

Against right-handers, last 90 days

163 PA
wOBA.315
xwOBA vs this mix.350against pitches like his
RV/100-0.06
Hard-hit%30.8%
K%17.9%
BB%10.8%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Dustin MayRHP · MIL vs STL
4.0projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 7 · 17.8 batters over 4.2 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 43.1%43%≤34 strikeouts: 19.4%19%45 strikeouts: 15.7%16%56 strikeouts: 10.4%10%67 strikeouts: 6.1%6%78 strikeouts: 3.0%3%89+ strikeouts: 2.3%2%9+book 4.5
Over 4.5: 38% (red bars) · under: 63%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%23.3%
BB%10.2%
Whiff%10.6%
Velo92.9
BTB Stuff107
Location97
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Cutter27%11293.313.1%
Sinker22%11296.68.3%
Fastball22%9796.910.2%
Sweeper16%11286.27.7%
Curveball8%10983.913.9%
Changeup5%8289.918.0%
Other0%––0.0%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 187027%14%20%.550
Sep 118427%14%27%.155
Sep 55633%21%33%.373

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Dustin May MIL · RHPvsSTL lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

1 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.6%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameSTL @ MIL →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.JJ Wetherholt: every projection we've made →