MLBengine v14
← STL at MIL, Sep 26, 2026
6:10 PM CT · American Family Field · lineup projected
Hitter · STL · batting 9Masyn Winn
Bats rightTalent grade DBalancedCold
.279wOBA vs RHP.294xwOBA vs his mix3.3expected PA
Starter · MILDustin May
Throws rightBTB Stuff 107Trending Up
4.0projected K23%K%1.7trips vs this hitter
Dustin May's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Cutter: 26% usage, 93.4 mph, -1.6″ arm side, +9.1″ rise. Masyn Winn: wOBA .309 vs league .322 (about even).Cutter 26%Sinker: 23% usage, 96.7 mph, +17.3″ arm side, +6.4″ rise. Masyn Winn: wOBA .325 vs league .338 (about even).Sinker 23%Fastball: 22% usage, 96.9 mph, +9.4″ arm side, +15.2″ rise. Masyn Winn: wOBA .334 vs league .347 (about even).Fastball 22%Sweeper: 16% usage, 86.3 mph, -15.4″ arm side, -3.7″ rise. Masyn Winn: wOBA .263 vs league .276 (about even).Sweeper 16%Curveball: 8% usage, 84.1 mph, -8.0″ arm side, -15.6″ rise. Masyn Winn: wOBA .258 vs league .271 (about even).Curveball 8%Changeup: 5% usage, 90.0 mph, +15.2″ arm side, +5.2″ rise. Masyn Winn: wOBA .276 vs league .289 (about even).Changeup 5%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Masyn Winn's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Masyn Winn's last 40 balls in playHit (11)Out (29)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 91.5 mph at 37°Double: 99.4 mph at 20°Out: 91.7 mph at 6°Out: 87.4 mph at -24°Out: 103.2 mph at 1°Single: 70.9 mph at 6°Out: 74.5 mph at 5°Out: 91.0 mph at 46°Out: 94.0 mph at 20°Out: 88.3 mph at -33°Single: 92.6 mph at 7°Out: 86.1 mph at -22°Out: 81.0 mph at 14°Out: 65.0 mph at -49°Single: 75.9 mph at 16°Out: 97.0 mph at 41°Out: 88.9 mph at 43°Single: 99.6 mph at -6°Double: 99.2 mph at -5°Out: 94.0 mph at 35°Out: 92.5 mph at -20°Out: 100.8 mph at 35°Out: 74.3 mph at 6°Out: 98.4 mph at -7°Out: 69.7 mph at -45°Out: 97.3 mph at 25°Out: 54.6 mph at -71°Out: 91.4 mph at -6°Double: 105.0 mph at 5°Home run: 105.6 mph at 23°Out: 84.8 mph at 39°Double: 91.2 mph at 22°Out: 91.4 mph at 66°Single: 97.2 mph at 3°Single: 76.2 mph at 53°Out: 63.4 mph at -58°Out: 87.9 mph at 24°Out: 103.1 mph at 25°Out: 76.6 mph at 63°Out: 90.0 mph at -23°
30% hit 95+ mph23% in the sweet spot28% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit50.7%52.0%-1.3
2+ total bases24.1%24.8%-0.7
Home run5.4%5.3%+0.2
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-0.9
Pitch mix
-0.3
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
-0.2
2+ total bases
Starter
-0.5
Pitch mix
-0.3
Bullpen
+0.2
Park
-0.1
Home run
Starter
+0.1
Pitch mix
-0.1
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
+0.1

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Pitch by pitch

Masyn Winn against each of Dustin May's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Cutter26%93.4-2″ / +9″.309.32225.2%24.2%24About league average vs these
Sinker23%96.7+17″ / +6″.325.33812.9%12.2%29About league average vs these
Fastball22%96.9+9″ / +15″.334.34719.4%18.4%51About league average vs these
Sweeper16%86.3-15″ / -4″.263.27629.4%27.5%9About league average vs these
Curveball8%84.1-8″ / -16″.258.27131.7%29.8%7Little history vs this shape
Changeup5%90.0+15″ / +5″.276.28929.3%30.0%16About league average vs these
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Masyn Winn · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G511.200.273.300.259.23136.4%9.1%33.3%91.7103.20.0%33.3%33.3%
Last 15 G1537.206.270.265.246.23729.7%8.1%25.0%88.0103.20.0%34.8%21.7%
Last 30 G3081.194.272.278.251.27628.4%9.9%24.2%88.2104.84.0%34.0%30.0%
90 days58165.214.297.283.272.28723.0%10.3%23.8%89.5106.93.7%39.4%30.3%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 109 balls in play
Ground 51%Line drive 17%Fly ball 25%Pop-up 8%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G46.000.167.000.267.17133.3%16.7%30.0%84.591.50.0%0.0%0.0%
Last 15 G1016.214.312.571.425.33725.0%12.5%26.9%91.0105.610.0%30.0%20.0%
Last 30 G1730.214.267.393.317.28230.0%6.7%28.9%90.2105.65.3%21.1%31.6%
90 days3263.241.302.345.304.29228.6%7.9%27.5%89.1108.42.5%30.0%42.5%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 40 balls in play
Ground 40%Line drive 28%Fly ball 20%Pop-up 13%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G517.133.235.200.262.21035.3%11.8%32.3%89.3103.20.0%22.2%22.2%
Last 15 G1553.208.283.354.300.26728.3%9.4%25.6%88.9105.63.0%33.3%21.2%
Last 30 G30111.200.270.310.268.27828.8%9.0%25.4%88.7105.64.3%30.4%30.4%
90 days60228.222.298.300.281.28924.6%9.6%24.8%89.4108.43.4%36.9%33.6%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 149 balls in play
Ground 48%Line drive 20%Fly ball 24%Pop-up 9%
Masyn Winn · percentile ranksvs 304 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormCold
Contact rating28Below average
Last 100 pitches5trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.280 / .293results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit5/12
2+ total bases2/12
Home run0/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 24LHPSweeper82.191.537.013Out
Sep 23RHPCutter92.799.420.401Double
Sep 22RHPFastball97.191.76.429Out
Sep 19LHPCurveball84.687.4-24.078Out
Sep 19RHPFastball97.2103.21.453Out
Sep 19RHPCutter90.870.96.209Single
Sep 19LHPSweeper82.674.55.238Error
Sep 18RHPCurveball86.291.046.014Out
Sep 18RHPFastball97.294.020.342Out
Sep 15RHPSinker93.188.3-33.055Out
Sep 15RHPFastball93.792.67.481Single
Sep 15RHPSinker95.486.1-22.093Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 24300002
Sep 23412012
Sep 22300011
Sep 19511001
Sep 18200000
Sep 15311000
Sep 14300010
Sep 13311000
Sep 12423002
Sep 11400001

Two strikes

Dustin May MIL · RHPwith two strikes
Dustin May with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Sweeper16%26%17.0%16.9%19.3%
Fastball22%25%15.2%17.3%18.0%
Cutter26%18%27.5%22.4%17.9%
Sinker23%18%21.9%22.8%16.9%
Curveball8%8%38.5%18.5%20.1%
Changeup5%4%33.3%23.1%18.6%
Other0%0%–0.0%21.7%
Masyn Winn bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
Masyn Winn with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. About league average vs his two-strike stuff
With two strikesHimLeague
K%40.3%42.4%
Whiff%21.6%22.2%
Contact%78.4%77.8%
Chase%39.3%39.8%
wOBA.236.238
Whiff vs his put-away shapes19.3%19.8%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeDBalanced type
wOBA.291
K%23.9%
BB%8.9%
Whiff%9.9%
Barrel%2.6%
Hard-hit%24.4%
Avg EV89.1

Against right-handers, last 90 days

161 PA
wOBA.279
xwOBA vs this mix.294against pitches like his
RV/100-0.82
Hard-hit%25.9%
K%23.2%
BB%9.7%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Dustin MayRHP · MIL vs STL
4.0projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 7 · 17.8 batters over 4.2 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 43.1%43%≤34 strikeouts: 19.4%19%45 strikeouts: 15.7%16%56 strikeouts: 10.4%10%67 strikeouts: 6.1%6%78 strikeouts: 3.0%3%89+ strikeouts: 2.3%2%9+book 4.5
Over 4.5: 38% (red bars) · under: 63%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%23.3%
BB%10.2%
Whiff%10.6%
Velo92.9
BTB Stuff107
Location97
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Cutter27%11293.313.1%
Sinker22%11296.68.3%
Fastball22%9796.910.2%
Sweeper16%11286.27.7%
Curveball8%10983.913.9%
Changeup5%8289.918.0%
Other0%––0.0%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 187027%14%20%.550
Sep 118427%14%27%.155
Sep 55633%21%33%.373

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Dustin May MIL · RHPvsSTL lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

1 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.6%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameSTL @ MIL →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Masyn Winn: every projection we've made →