MLBengine v14
← STL at MIL, Sep 26, 2026
6:10 PM CT · American Family Field · lineup confirmed
Hitter · STL · batting 6Nolan Gorman
Bats leftTalent grade DBalancedNormal
.268wOBA vs RHP.291xwOBA vs his mix3.6expected PA
Starter · MILDustin May
Throws rightBTB Stuff 107Trending Up
4.2projected K23%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Dustin May's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Sinker: 28% usage, 95.9 mph, +18.2″ arm side, +6.6″ rise. Nolan Gorman: wOBA .341 vs league .358 (pitcher's edge).Sinker 28%Sweeper: 24% usage, 85.5 mph, -16.7″ arm side, -2.9″ rise. Nolan Gorman: wOBA .271 vs league .288 (pitcher's edge).Sweeper 24%Fastball: 22% usage, 96.8 mph, +10.1″ arm side, +14.6″ rise. Nolan Gorman: wOBA .332 vs league .350 (pitcher's edge).Fastball 22%Cutter: 17% usage, 92.9 mph, -0.8″ arm side, +8.2″ rise. Nolan Gorman: wOBA .334 vs league .352 (pitcher's edge).Cutter 17%Changeup: 4% usage, 90.1 mph, +15.7″ arm side, +3.6″ rise. Nolan Gorman: wOBA .293 vs league .311 (pitcher's edge).Changeup 4%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Nolan Gorman's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Nolan Gorman's last 40 balls in playHit (10)Out (30)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 87.5 mph at 27°Single: 93.2 mph at 9°Out: 82.8 mph at 28°Out: 92.5 mph at 24°Out: 99.7 mph at 19°Single: 104.9 mph at -4°Out: 77.8 mph at -24°Out: 81.5 mph at -3°Out: 78.3 mph at 75°Single: 75.8 mph at 20°Out: 106.6 mph at -1°Single: 64.6 mph at 38°Single: 105.5 mph at 8°Out: 70.2 mph at 4°Out: 96.7 mph at -7°Out: 93.2 mph at 59°Out: 100.7 mph at 26°Out: 84.9 mph at -6°Out: 92.2 mph at 53°Out: 74.4 mph at -49°Home run: 103.6 mph at 31°Out: 89.6 mph at 30°Out: 96.1 mph at -3°Double: 105.2 mph at 40°Out: 93.6 mph at 41°Single: 76.6 mph at 17°Out: 103.6 mph at -12°Out: 85.9 mph at 33°Out: 104.0 mph at 51°Out: 92.5 mph at -12°Out: 92.5 mph at 27°Out: 102.7 mph at 39°Out: 72.9 mph at 55°Out: 88.2 mph at 48°Double: 104.5 mph at 17°Out: 99.4 mph at 27°Out: 78.9 mph at -4°Home run: 107.3 mph at 32°Out: 74.8 mph at 29°Out: 66.8 mph at -16°
38% hit 95+ mph40% in the sweet spot25% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit49.5%51.0%-1.5
2+ total bases30.6%31.4%-0.7
Home run12.8%12.4%+0.4
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-1.0
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.2
Park
-0.2
2+ total bases
Starter
-0.2
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.4
Park
-0.2
Home run
Starter
+0.7
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.4
Park
+0.1

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Nolan Gorman hits
Where they meet

.303 xwOBA for Nolan Gorman in the spots Dustin May throws to lefties

The average hitter in those same spots: .311 (-8 points). His best spot against righties is up-left, and Dustin May puts 5% of his pitches there. Context only; the projection reads pitch type, not location.

Dustin May · where he throws to left-handed hitters
5% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 10% per swing5%6% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 21% per swing6%4% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 8% per swing4%3% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 30% per swing3%6% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 3% per swing6%6% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 4% per swing6%4% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 8% per swing4%5% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 4% per swing5%6% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 7% per swing6%18% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 30% per swing18%5% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 40% per swing5%10% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 41% per swing10%22% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 54% per swing22%
All · 622 pitches · catcher's view
6% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters6%14% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters14%7% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters7%2% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters2%5% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters5%9% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters9%2% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters2%5% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters5%8% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters8%9% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters9%8% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters8%1% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters1%27% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters27%
Cutter · 185 pitches · catcher's view
6% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters6%8% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters8%5% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters5%4% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters4%10% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters10%6% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters6%1% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters1%3% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters3%3% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters3%35% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters35%10% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters10%6% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters6%5% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters5%
Fastball · 158 pitches · catcher's view
5% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters5%1% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters1%0% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters2% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters2%5% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters5%3% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters3%5% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters5%8% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters8%10% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters10%16% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters16%1% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters1%8% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters8%35% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters35%
Sweeper · 95 pitches · catcher's view
4% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters4%0% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters1% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters1%3% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters3%7% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters7%1% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters1%6% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters6%6% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters6%7% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters7%14% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters14%0% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters18% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters18%32% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters32%
Curveball · 71 pitches · catcher's view
2% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters2%2% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters2%2% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters2%7% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters7%2% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters2%7% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters7%8% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters8%5% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters5%7% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters7%18% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters18%3% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters3%21% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters21%19% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters19%
Sinker · 62 pitches · catcher's view
0% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters0% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters0% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters4% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters4%4% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters4%0% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters8% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters8%6% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters6%2% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters2%14% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters14%0% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters35% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters35%28% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters28%
Changeup · 51 pitches · catcher's view

Share of his pitches in each spot; darker is more. Last 90 days.

Nolan Gorman · hot and cold vs RHP
xwOBA .368 shrunk (raw .648 on 4 PA) · league .274 · 14 pitches seen.368xwOBA .263 shrunk (raw .000 on 2 PA) · league .307 · 5 pitches seen.263xwOBA .263 shrunk (raw – on 0 PA) · league .263 · 7 pitches seenxwOBA .375 shrunk (raw .474 on 4 PA) · league .342 · 8 pitches seen.375xwOBA .275 shrunk (raw .086 on 7 PA) · league .386 · 16 pitches seen.275xwOBA .302 shrunk (raw .246 on 4 PA) · league .321 · 12 pitches seen.302xwOBA .310 shrunk (raw .325 on 2 PA) · league .308 · 15 pitches seen.310xwOBA .301 shrunk (raw .202 on 6 PA) · league .351 · 17 pitches seen.301xwOBA .292 shrunk (raw – on 0 PA) · league .292 · 8 pitches seenxwOBA .334 shrunk (raw .203 on 4 PA) · league .377 · 53 pitches seen.334xwOBA .221 shrunk (raw .007 on 3 PA) · league .274 · 20 pitches seen.221xwOBA .300 shrunk (raw .328 on 16 PA) · league .263 · 46 pitches seen.300xwOBA .304 shrunk (raw .349 on 8 PA) · league .274 · 30 pitches seen.304
vs RHP · 251 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 33% of 9 swings · league 22%33%Whiff 50% of 4 swings · league 20%50%Whiff 33% of 3 swings · league 19%33%Whiff 0% of 6 swings · league 10%0%Whiff 8% of 12 swings · league 9%8%Whiff 0% of 9 swings · league 11%0%Whiff 17% of 6 swings · league 14%17%Whiff 20% of 10 swings · league 13%20%Whiff 50% of 4 swings · league 17%50%Whiff 58% of 12 swings · league 28%58%Whiff 50% of 6 swings · league 24%50%Whiff 29% of 24 swings · league 32%29%Whiff 60% of 10 swings · league 49%60%
vs RHP · 251 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 64% of 14 pitches · league 62%64%Swings at 80% of 5 pitches · league 72%80%Swings at 43% of 7 pitches · league 66%43%Swings at 75% of 8 pitches · league 70%75%Swings at 75% of 16 pitches · league 76%75%Swings at 75% of 12 pitches · league 70%75%Swings at 40% of 15 pitches · league 65%40%Swings at 59% of 17 pitches · league 68%59%Swings at 50% of 8 pitches · league 60%50%Swings at 23% of 53 pitches · league 24%23%Swings at 30% of 20 pitches · league 34%30%Swings at 52% of 46 pitches · league 40%52%Swings at 33% of 30 pitches · league 32%33%
vs RHP · 251 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Nolan Gorman against each of Dustin May's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Sinker28%95.9+18″ / +7″.341.35823.4%13.3%199About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Sweeper24%85.5-17″ / -3″.271.28838.3%30.8%39About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Fastball22%96.8+10″ / +15″.332.35032.4%18.6%420About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Cutter17%92.9-1″ / +8″.334.35230.3%19.0%262About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Changeup4%90.1+16″ / +4″.293.31137.2%26.2%252About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Nolan Gorman · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G514.200.429.200.329.32321.4%28.6%26.9%91.2104.90.0%28.6%71.4%
Last 15 G1542.167.286.278.263.29126.2%14.3%30.4%89.3106.68.0%32.0%36.0%
Last 30 G2160.151.250.302.250.28028.3%11.7%30.4%89.4107.38.3%33.3%36.1%
90 days2160.151.250.302.250.28028.3%11.7%30.4%89.4107.38.3%33.3%36.1%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 36 balls in play
Ground 36%Line drive 11%Fly ball 39%Pop-up 14%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 GNo plate appearances
Last 15 G46.333.333.333.300.29450.0%0.0%18.2%95.0105.50.0%66.7%66.7%
Last 30 G57.286.286.286.257.37542.9%0.0%16.7%96.1105.525.0%75.0%75.0%
90 days57.286.286.286.257.37542.9%0.0%16.7%96.1105.525.0%75.0%75.0%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 4 balls in play
Ground 50%Line drive 25%Fly ball 25%Pop-up 0%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G514.200.429.200.329.32321.4%28.6%26.9%91.2104.90.0%28.6%71.4%
Last 15 G1548.190.292.286.268.29129.2%12.5%28.9%89.9106.67.1%35.7%39.3%
Last 30 G2167.167.254.300.251.29029.9%10.4%29.1%90.0107.310.0%37.5%40.0%
90 days2167.167.254.300.251.29029.9%10.4%29.1%90.0107.310.0%37.5%40.0%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 40 balls in play
Ground 38%Line drive 13%Fly ball 38%Pop-up 13%
Nolan Gorman · percentile ranksvs 228 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormNormal
Contact rating38Below average
Last 100 pitches63trending up
wOBA / xwOBA.253 / .303running 50 points behind his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit6/12
2+ total bases3/12
Home run1/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 23RHPChangeup87.287.527.082Out
Sep 23RHPCurveball85.493.29.568Single
Sep 16RHPFastball96.282.828.148Out
Sep 16RHPChangeup86.892.524.140Out
Sep 16RHPSinker98.399.719.428Out
Sep 15RHPFastball94.7104.9-4.333Single
Sep 14RHPSinker96.277.8-24.032Out
Sep 13RHPFastball96.181.5-3.145Out
Sep 13RHPFastball97.378.375.000Out
Sep 12LHPFastball97.775.820.896Single
Sep 9RHPFastball95.4106.6-1.447Out
Sep 9RHPSweeper81.564.638.510Single
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 23411011
Sep 18100010
Sep 16500020
Sep 15111000
Sep 14300002
Sep 13200000
Sep 12411012
Sep 9422001
Sep 8200001
Sep 7500011

Two strikes

Dustin May MIL · RHPwith two strikes
Dustin May with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Sweeper16%26%17.0%16.9%20.7%
Fastball22%25%15.2%17.3%18.3%
Cutter26%18%27.5%22.4%18.7%
Sinker23%18%21.9%22.8%17.7%
Curveball8%8%38.5%18.5%20.7%
Changeup5%4%33.3%23.1%18.4%
Other0%0%–0.0%17.9%
Nolan Gorman bats Lwith two strikes, vs this hand
Nolan Gorman with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Misses his two-strike stuff more than most
With two strikesHimLeague
K%55.0%41.3%
Whiff%32.6%21.6%
Contact%67.4%78.4%
Chase%38.1%39.4%
wOBA.220.246
Whiff vs his put-away shapes33.1%22.3%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeDBalanced type
wOBA.291
K%30.1%
BB%10.6%
Whiff%11.3%
Barrel%5.2%
Hard-hit%23.2%
Avg EV89.2

Against right-handers, last 90 days

61 PA
wOBA.268
xwOBA vs this mix.291against pitches like his
RV/100-0.82
Hard-hit%21.8%
K%27.0%
BB%9.3%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Dustin MayRHP · MIL vs STL4 days' rest
4.2projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 7 · 17.8 batters over 4.2 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 40.3%40%≤34 strikeouts: 19.4%19%45 strikeouts: 16.1%16%56 strikeouts: 11.2%11%67 strikeouts: 6.7%7%78 strikeouts: 3.5%4%89+ strikeouts: 2.8%3%9+book 4.5
Over 4.5: 40% (red bars) · under: 60%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%23.3%
BB%10.2%
Whiff%10.6%
Velo92.9
BTB Stuff107
Location97
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff%
Cutter27%11293.313.1%
Sinker22%11296.68.3%
Fastball22%9796.910.2%
Sweeper16%11286.27.7%
Curveball8%10983.913.9%
Changeup5%8289.918.0%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 187027%14%20%.550
Sep 118427%14%27%.155
Sep 55633%21%33%.373

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Dustin May MIL · RHPvsSTL lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

2 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.7%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameSTL @ MIL →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Nolan Gorman: every projection we've made →