MLBengine v14
← STL at MIL, Sep 26, 2026
6:10 PM CT · American Family Field · lineup projected
Hitter · STL · batting 7Thomas Saggese
Bats rightTalent grade CBalancedNormal
.337wOBA vs RHP.338xwOBA vs his mix3.5expected PA
Starter · MILDustin May
Throws rightBTB Stuff 107Trending Up
4.0projected K23%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Dustin May's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Cutter: 26% usage, 93.4 mph, -1.6″ arm side, +9.1″ rise. Thomas Saggese: wOBA .325 vs league .322 (about even).Cutter 26%Sinker: 23% usage, 96.7 mph, +17.3″ arm side, +6.4″ rise. Thomas Saggese: wOBA .342 vs league .338 (about even).Sinker 23%Fastball: 22% usage, 96.9 mph, +9.4″ arm side, +15.2″ rise. Thomas Saggese: wOBA .350 vs league .347 (about even).Fastball 22%Sweeper: 16% usage, 86.3 mph, -15.4″ arm side, -3.7″ rise. Thomas Saggese: wOBA .279 vs league .276 (about even).Sweeper 16%Curveball: 8% usage, 84.1 mph, -8.0″ arm side, -15.6″ rise. Thomas Saggese: wOBA .274 vs league .271 (about even).Curveball 8%Changeup: 5% usage, 90.0 mph, +15.2″ arm side, +5.2″ rise. Thomas Saggese: wOBA .292 vs league .289 (about even).Changeup 5%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Thomas Saggese's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Thomas Saggese's last 40 balls in playHit (10)Out (30)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 90.6 mph at 30°Out: 85.1 mph at 19°Out: 101.9 mph at 25°Out: 103.8 mph at -11°Out: 84.7 mph at 29°Out: 59.0 mph at -65°Out: 92.7 mph at 33°Out: 92.4 mph at 43°Out: 96.8 mph at -15°Out: 100.0 mph at 25°Out: 100.3 mph at -12°Single: 57.0 mph at -84°Single: 101.7 mph at 12°Out: 106.5 mph at 19°Out: 89.6 mph at 47°Out: 96.4 mph at -4°Single: 111.0 mph at 1°Out: 100.6 mph at 39°Out: 73.9 mph at 11°Single: 96.5 mph at -4°Out: 107.1 mph at -25°Out: 96.2 mph at 28°Out: 100.6 mph at 10°Out: 94.9 mph at 27°Single: 73.2 mph at 26°Out: 90.4 mph at 26°Out: 90.6 mph at 40°Single: 92.7 mph at 16°Out: 79.4 mph at 3°Out: 92.4 mph at 4°Out: 103.1 mph at 4°Out: 92.2 mph at -24°Single: 109.4 mph at 5°Out: 105.9 mph at 4°Single: 95.5 mph at 10°Out: 90.0 mph at 29°Single: 101.0 mph at -4°Out: 91.5 mph at 35°Out: 80.5 mph at 0°Double: 102.3 mph at 20°
50% hit 95+ mph43% in the sweet spot25% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit59.4%60.1%-0.8
2+ total bases32.1%32.4%-0.3
Home run9.7%9.2%+0.5
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-0.9
Pitch mix
+0.2
Bullpen
+0.2
Park
-0.2
2+ total bases
Starter
-0.6
Pitch mix
+0.1
Bullpen
+0.2
Park
-0.1
Home run
Starter
+0.1
Pitch mix
+0.1
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
+0.2

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Pitch by pitch

Thomas Saggese against each of Dustin May's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Cutter26%93.4-2″ / +9″.325.32219.8%24.2%16About league average vs these
Sinker23%96.7+17″ / +6″.342.3389.6%12.2%16About league average vs these
Fastball22%96.9+9″ / +15″.350.34715.4%18.4%21About league average vs these
Sweeper16%86.3-15″ / -4″.279.27621.2%27.5%6Little history vs this shape
Curveball8%84.1-8″ / -16″.274.27123.5%29.8%2Little history vs this shape
Changeup5%90.0+15″ / +5″.292.28924.6%30.0%9About league average vs these
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Thomas Saggese · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G515.000.200.000.140.25333.3%6.7%28.1%86.9103.80.0%14.3%42.9%
Last 15 G1548.205.250.227.239.32018.8%2.1%15.5%92.8111.05.6%50.0%41.7%
Last 30 G2064.298.344.404.341.34515.6%4.7%16.2%91.8111.06.1%44.9%40.8%
90 days2064.298.344.404.341.34515.6%4.7%16.2%91.8111.06.1%44.9%40.8%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 49 balls in play
Ground 41%Line drive 27%Fly ball 29%Pop-up 4%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G35.000.200.000.140.36860.0%20.0%45.5%101.9101.9100.0%100.0%100.0%
Last 15 G813.182.308.182.246.32946.2%15.4%42.9%94.8109.420.0%40.0%60.0%
Last 30 G1223.278.391.611.413.37939.1%17.4%35.0%92.6109.430.0%50.0%40.0%
90 days1223.278.391.611.413.37939.1%17.4%35.0%92.6109.430.0%50.0%40.0%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 10 balls in play
Ground 40%Line drive 10%Fly ball 50%Pop-up 0%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G520.000.200.000.140.28240.0%10.0%32.6%88.8103.812.5%25.0%50.0%
Last 15 G1561.200.262.218.240.32224.6%4.9%20.2%93.1111.07.3%48.8%43.9%
Last 30 G2287.293.356.453.360.35421.8%8.0%20.6%91.9111.010.2%45.8%40.7%
90 days2287.293.356.453.360.35421.8%8.0%20.6%91.9111.010.2%45.8%40.7%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 59 balls in play
Ground 41%Line drive 24%Fly ball 32%Pop-up 3%
Thomas Saggese · percentile ranksvs 304 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormNormal
Contact rating93Top tier
Last 100 pitches42trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.362 / .373results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit5/12
2+ total bases1/12
Home run0/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 24RHPSweeper85.690.630.061Out
Sep 22RHPFastball97.085.119.829Out
Sep 20LHPChangeup78.7101.9251.144Out
Sep 20RHPSinker100.5103.8-11.253Out
Sep 19RHPSweeper83.584.729.088Out
Sep 19RHPCutter88.759.0-65.256Out
Sep 18RHPFastball95.492.733.149Out
Sep 18RHPSlider88.592.443.007Out
Sep 16RHPFastball96.896.8-15.200Out
Sep 16RHPSinker94.5100.025.733Sac fly
Sep 16RHPSinker98.8100.3-12.269Error
Sep 16RHPSweeper86.357.0-84.131Single
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 24400002
Sep 22300011
Sep 20400002
Sep 19500012
Sep 18400001
Sep 16511001
Sep 15411000
Sep 14422000
Sep 13300001
Sep 12411001

Two strikes

Dustin May MIL · RHPwith two strikes
Dustin May with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Sweeper16%26%17.0%16.9%19.3%
Fastball22%25%15.2%17.3%18.0%
Cutter26%18%27.5%22.4%17.9%
Sinker23%18%21.9%22.8%16.9%
Curveball8%8%38.5%18.5%20.1%
Changeup5%4%33.3%23.1%18.6%
Other0%0%–0.0%21.7%
Thomas Saggese bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
Thomas Saggese with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Makes contact on his two-strike stuff more than most
With two strikesHimLeague
K%36.2%42.4%
Whiff%17.4%22.2%
Contact%82.6%77.8%
Chase%41.4%39.8%
wOBA.264.238
Whiff vs his put-away shapes15.5%19.8%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeCBalanced type
wOBA.313
K%24.9%
BB%6.7%
Whiff%10.4%
Barrel%4.4%
Hard-hit%29.1%
Avg EV90.2

Against right-handers, last 90 days

64 PA
wOBA.337
xwOBA vs this mix.338against pitches like his
RV/1000.26
Hard-hit%32.0%
K%18.0%
BB%8.0%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Dustin MayRHP · MIL vs STL
4.0projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 7 · 17.8 batters over 4.2 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 43.1%43%≤34 strikeouts: 19.4%19%45 strikeouts: 15.7%16%56 strikeouts: 10.4%10%67 strikeouts: 6.1%6%78 strikeouts: 3.0%3%89+ strikeouts: 2.3%2%9+book 4.5
Over 4.5: 38% (red bars) · under: 63%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%23.3%
BB%10.2%
Whiff%10.6%
Velo92.9
BTB Stuff107
Location97
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Cutter27%11293.313.1%
Sinker22%11296.68.3%
Fastball22%9796.910.2%
Sweeper16%11286.27.7%
Curveball8%10983.913.9%
Changeup5%8289.918.0%
Other0%––0.0%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 187027%14%20%.550
Sep 118427%14%27%.155
Sep 55633%21%33%.373

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Dustin May MIL · RHPvsSTL lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

1 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.6%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameSTL @ MIL →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Thomas Saggese: every projection we've made →