MLBengine v14
← TB at PHI, Sep 26, 2026
6:15 PM CT · Citizens Bank Park · lineup confirmed
Hitter · TB · batting 8Cedric Mullins
Bats leftTalent grade FBalancedNormal
.314wOBA vs RHP.284xwOBA vs his mix3.4expected PA
Starter · PHIAaron Nola
Throws rightBTB Stuff 92Trending Down
4.6projected K25%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Aaron Nola's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 30% usage, 92.7 mph, +12.7″ arm side, +14.8″ rise. Cedric Mullins: wOBA .365 vs league .359 (about even).Fastball 30%Curveball: 30% usage, 78.8 mph, -14.2″ arm side, -10.6″ rise. Cedric Mullins: wOBA .301 vs league .293 (about even).Curveball 30%Sinker: 18% usage, 91.8 mph, +17.3″ arm side, +8.8″ rise. Cedric Mullins: wOBA .360 vs league .353 (about even).Sinker 18%Changeup: 15% usage, 85.6 mph, +15.0″ arm side, +3.0″ rise. Cedric Mullins: wOBA .304 vs league .296 (about even).Changeup 15%Cutter: 7% usage, 86.7 mph, -0.2″ arm side, +7.6″ rise. Cedric Mullins: wOBA .364 vs league .357 (about even).Cutter 7%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Cedric Mullins's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Cedric Mullins's last 40 balls in playHit (9)Out (31)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Single: 105.1 mph at -1°Home run: 98.7 mph at 31°Out: 91.9 mph at 66°Out: 96.5 mph at -19°Out: 87.7 mph at 53°Out: 85.8 mph at 3°Single: 106.0 mph at 2°Out: 99.0 mph at -13°Out: 89.4 mph at -18°Single: 41.0 mph at -64°Out: 95.7 mph at 55°Out: 76.7 mph at -28°Out: 22.7 mph at 48°Out: 105.6 mph at 4°Out: 72.9 mph at -3°Out: 77.8 mph at -26°Out: 93.8 mph at 23°Out: 90.0 mph at -1°Single: 74.5 mph at 22°Out: 95.5 mph at 39°Out: 70.3 mph at 50°Out: 103.7 mph at -12°Out: 101.4 mph at 10°Single: 87.9 mph at 10°Out: 86.8 mph at 54°Out: 79.0 mph at 6°Out: 84.3 mph at 43°Out: 88.9 mph at 55°Out: 82.7 mph at 36°Out: 84.6 mph at 39°Out: 103.8 mph at 39°Single: 102.0 mph at 6°Single: 64.4 mph at 32°Out: 88.0 mph at 20°Out: 95.2 mph at -4°Out: 81.9 mph at -53°Out: 95.5 mph at 32°Out: 79.2 mph at 81°Single: 109.7 mph at 13°Out: 95.8 mph at -10°
40% hit 95+ mph23% in the sweet spot23% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit53.2%51.5%+1.7
2+ total bases31.4%28.7%+2.7
Home run12.0%8.8%+3.3
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+1.0
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.3
Park
+0.9
2+ total bases
Starter
+1.7
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.3
Park
+1.3
Home run
Starter
+2.2
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.2
Park
+1.3

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Cedric Mullins hits
Where they meet

.289 xwOBA for Cedric Mullins in the spots Aaron Nola throws to lefties

The average hitter in those same spots: .298 (-9 points). His best spot against righties is down and left, outside, and Aaron Nola puts 23% of his pitches there. Context only; the projection reads pitch type, not location.

Aaron Nola · where he throws to left-handed hitters
2% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 7% per swing2%2% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 9% per swing2%3% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 18% per swing3%3% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 9% per swing3%4% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing4%3% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing3%10% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 19% per swing10%8% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 17% per swing8%4% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 44% per swing4%8% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 54% per swing8%7% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 24% per swing7%23% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 29% per swing23%24% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 54% per swing24%
All · 1004 pitches · catcher's view
1% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters1%0% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters0% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters2% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters2%2% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters2%1% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters1%10% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters10%12% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters12%7% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters7%2% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters2%0% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters19% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters19%43% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters43%
Curveball · 300 pitches · catcher's view
6% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters6%4% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters4%5% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters5%7% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters7%6% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters6%2% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters2%11% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters11%6% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters6%2% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters2%18% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters18%11% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters11%15% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters15%8% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters8%
Fastball · 263 pitches · catcher's view
0% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters0% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters0% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters2% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters2%1% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters1%0% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters14% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters14%10% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters10%2% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters2%4% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters4%0% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters50% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters50%17% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters17%
Changeup · 253 pitches · catcher's view
3% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters3%4% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters4%7% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters7%3% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters3%8% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters8%12% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters12%2% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters2%5% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters5%3% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters3%4% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters4%20% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters20%6% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters6%26% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters26%
Sinker · 121 pitches · catcher's view
0% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters8% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters8%9% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters9%0% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters3% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters3%9% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters9%0% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters0% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters5% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters5%10% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters10%31% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters31%0% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters25% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters25%
Cutter · 67 pitches · catcher's view

Share of his pitches in each spot; darker is more. Last 90 days.

Cedric Mullins · hot and cold vs RHP
xwOBA .334 shrunk (raw .415 on 9 PA) · league .274 · 33 pitches seen.334xwOBA .237 shrunk (raw .153 on 10 PA) · league .307 · 39 pitches seen.237xwOBA .234 shrunk (raw .196 on 9 PA) · league .263 · 30 pitches seen.234xwOBA .304 shrunk (raw .278 on 17 PA) · league .342 · 33 pitches seen.304xwOBA .387 shrunk (raw .387 on 18 PA) · league .386 · 48 pitches seen.387xwOBA .263 shrunk (raw .205 on 12 PA) · league .321 · 31 pitches seen.263xwOBA .283 shrunk (raw .261 on 14 PA) · league .308 · 32 pitches seen.283xwOBA .317 shrunk (raw .288 on 14 PA) · league .351 · 36 pitches seen.317xwOBA .209 shrunk (raw .068 on 7 PA) · league .292 · 24 pitches seen.209xwOBA .450 shrunk (raw .517 on 13 PA) · league .377 · 106 pitches seen.450xwOBA .240 shrunk (raw .188 on 8 PA) · league .274 · 48 pitches seen.240xwOBA .349 shrunk (raw .394 on 23 PA) · league .263 · 100 pitches seen.349xwOBA .192 shrunk (raw .137 on 18 PA) · league .274 · 99 pitches seen.192
vs RHP · 659 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 18% of 17 swings · league 22%18%Whiff 16% of 32 swings · league 20%16%Whiff 11% of 18 swings · league 19%11%Whiff 12% of 25 swings · league 10%12%Whiff 8% of 37 swings · league 9%8%Whiff 12% of 26 swings · league 11%12%Whiff 18% of 22 swings · league 14%18%Whiff 14% of 29 swings · league 13%14%Whiff 18% of 17 swings · league 17%18%Whiff 9% of 11 swings · league 28%9%Whiff 15% of 13 swings · league 24%15%Whiff 19% of 42 swings · league 32%19%Whiff 38% of 42 swings · league 49%38%
vs RHP · 659 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 52% of 33 pitches · league 62%52%Swings at 82% of 39 pitches · league 72%82%Swings at 60% of 30 pitches · league 66%60%Swings at 76% of 33 pitches · league 70%76%Swings at 77% of 48 pitches · league 76%77%Swings at 84% of 31 pitches · league 70%84%Swings at 69% of 32 pitches · league 65%69%Swings at 81% of 36 pitches · league 68%81%Swings at 71% of 24 pitches · league 60%71%Swings at 10% of 106 pitches · league 24%10%Swings at 27% of 48 pitches · league 34%27%Swings at 42% of 100 pitches · league 40%42%Swings at 42% of 99 pitches · league 32%42%
vs RHP · 659 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Cedric Mullins against each of Aaron Nola's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball30%92.7+13″ / +15″.365.35916.6%17.6%658About league average vs these
Curveball30%78.8-14″ / -11″.301.29324.3%29.8%124About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Sinker18%91.8+17″ / +9″.360.35314.0%15.1%401About league average vs these
Changeup15%85.6+15″ / +3″.304.29623.6%28.0%244About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Cutter7%86.7-0″ / +8″.364.35720.3%21.1%291About league average vs these
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Cedric Mullins · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G39.222.222.556.362.17511.1%0.0%0.0%86.399.00.0%42.9%14.3%
Last 15 G1329.154.214.269.233.28113.8%6.9%14.3%85.6105.60.0%40.9%13.6%
Last 30 G2775.154.243.231.243.31014.7%10.7%15.9%87.0109.73.7%40.7%20.4%
90 days58176.209.289.392.315.28617.6%9.1%17.2%85.4109.74.0%37.6%22.4%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 125 balls in play
Ground 39%Line drive 14%Fly ball 29%Pop-up 18%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G25.500.600.500.500.38920.0%20.0%27.3%99.0106.00.0%66.7%0.0%
Last 15 G714.250.357.250.293.26314.3%14.3%18.5%89.8106.00.0%30.0%20.0%
Last 30 G1320.294.400.529.402.28715.0%15.0%15.8%90.5106.07.1%28.6%28.6%
90 days3246.167.239.310.245.19221.7%8.7%23.8%83.9106.03.1%18.8%15.6%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 32 balls in play
Ground 38%Line drive 9%Fly ball 25%Pop-up 28%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G514.308.357.538.415.25714.3%7.1%12.0%90.1106.00.0%50.0%10.0%
Last 15 G1543.184.262.263.254.27514.0%9.3%15.6%86.9106.00.0%37.5%15.6%
Last 30 G3095.183.277.293.278.30514.7%11.6%15.9%87.8109.74.4%38.2%22.1%
90 days62222.200.279.374.300.26618.5%9.0%18.8%85.1109.73.8%33.8%21.0%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 157 balls in play
Ground 39%Line drive 13%Fly ball 28%Pop-up 20%
Cedric Mullins · percentile ranksvs 228 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormNormal
Contact rating13Poor
Last 100 pitches1trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.292 / .267running 26 points ahead of his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit6/12
2+ total bases1/12
Home run1/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25LHPFastball93.6105.1-1.440Single
Sep 23RHPFastball96.698.731.717Home run
Sep 23RHPSlider88.891.966.016Out
Sep 23RHPCurveball77.996.5-19.126Out
Sep 23RHPSinker92.487.753.008Out
Sep 22LHPSweeper80.585.83.333Force out
Sep 22LHPFastball86.6106.02.474Single
Sep 22RHPSplitter91.399.0-13.235Out
Sep 19RHPFastball97.389.4-18.071Out
Sep 19RHPFastball96.041.0-64.227Single
Sep 17RHPCutter91.395.755.014Out
Sep 15RHPChangeup89.976.7-28.038Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25111000
Sep 23514100
Sep 22411011
Sep 22100000
Sep 19311001
Sep 17100000
Sep 15200001
Sep 12200000
Sep 11300001
Sep 10300001

Two strikes

Aaron Nola PHI · RHPwith two strikes
Aaron Nola with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Curveball32%47%43.7%29.6%20.7%
Fastball24%19%6.7%8.4%18.3%
Sinker16%19%10.0%18.3%17.7%
Changeup20%13%31.4%20.7%18.4%
Cutter7%1%0.0%0.0%18.7%
Slider1%0%0.0%0.0%21.4%
Cedric Mullins bats Lwith two strikes, vs this hand
Cedric Mullins with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. About league average vs his two-strike stuff
With two strikesHimLeague
K%38.2%41.3%
Whiff%19.3%21.6%
Contact%80.7%78.4%
Chase%40.1%39.4%
wOBA.252.246
Whiff vs his put-away shapes20.7%22.8%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeFBalanced type
wOBA.305
K%19.2%
BB%9.2%
Whiff%9.6%
Barrel%3.2%
Hard-hit%23.9%
Avg EV85.4

Against right-handers, last 90 days

176 PA
wOBA.314
xwOBA vs this mix.284against pitches like his
RV/1000.14
Hard-hit%26.3%
K%18.2%
BB%9.0%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Aaron NolaRHP · PHI vs TB3 days' rest · short rest
4.6projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 7 · 24.3 batters over 5.7 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 33.1%33%≤34 strikeouts: 18.7%19%45 strikeouts: 17.1%17%56 strikeouts: 13.1%13%67 strikeouts: 8.5%9%78 strikeouts: 5.0%5%89+ strikeouts: 4.5%5%9+book 4.5
Over 4.5: 48% (red bars) · under: 52%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%24.8%
BB%8.4%
Whiff%12.9%
Velo85.9
BTB Stuff92
Location113
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff%
Curveball32%10378.424.0%
Fastball24%10492.44.0%
Changeup20%6585.613.3%
Sinker16%8291.64.2%
Cutter7%9686.410.3%
Last 3 startsTrending Down
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 238835%11%17%.298
Sep 178117%11%25%.200
Sep 1110111%11%30%.398

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Aaron Nola PHI · RHPvsTB lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

1 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.7%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameTB @ PHI →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Cedric Mullins: every projection we've made →