Rays at Phillies
6:15 PM CT · Citizens Bank Park · 60F · Crosswind 15 mph · 49% precip risk
The game
Game totals, win probability and the first inning are research only: in the backtest they don't beat the league-wide rate. Shown as projections, never as plays.
- Carry
- – vs neutral air
- Weather
- 60°F · Crosswind · roof open
- Park factor
- Runs 104 · HR 113 100 = average
Air density from observed temperature, dew point and pressure. It shapes batted balls, not the run total directly.
PHI starter not announced yet.
| Date | Pitches | K% | Whiff% | Hard-hit% | wOBA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20 | 74 | 26% | 14% | 16% | .216 |
| Sep 15 | 67 | 41% | 15% | 12% | .126 |
| Sep 9 | 66 | 11% | 6% | 33% | .212 |
Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.
1 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight
Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.6%. Red strikes out more, blue less.
Pitch-mix battles
each lineup against the starter it faces| Griffin Jax's pitches | PHI lineup vs that pitch | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pitch | Usage | Velo | BTB Stuff | Whiff% | RV/100 | wOBA | Whiff% | Hard-hit% | Edge |
| Sweeper | 25% | 87.0 | 113 | 11.0% | -0.60 | .271 | 12.4% | 27.1% | -0.59 |
| Sinker | 24% | 95.1 | 114 | 3.6% | 1.32 | .336 | 4.3% | 34.7% | +0.06 |
| Changeup | 23% | 90.4 | 113 | 23.8% | 1.50 | .282 | 12.2% | 19.2% | -0.75 |
| Fastball | 19% | 95.6 | 113 | 15.0% | 2.78 | .351 | 8.4% | 29.1% | -0.08 |
| Curveball | 9% | 84.5 | 103 | 13.3% | 1.24 | .323 | 13.5% | 21.9% | -0.07 |
Bullpens
No one pitched yesterday.
Ranked on a blend of K-BB% (60%) and wOBA allowed (40%) over the bullpen window. Tired arms are context: in our tests bullpen rest didn't improve run totals.
No one pitched yesterday.
Ranked on a blend of K-BB% (60%) and wOBA allowed (40%) over the bullpen window. Tired arms are context: in our tests bullpen rest didn't improve run totals.
Two strikes
how each starter finishes hitters| Pitch | Overall | 2 strikes | Whiff% | Put-away | League put-away |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Changeup | 23% | 28% | 45.1% | 36.2% | 18.6% |
| Fastball | 19% | 27% | 22.5% | 17.6% | 18.0% |
| Sinker | 24% | 18% | 9.1% | 28.3% | 16.9% |
| Sweeper | 25% | 18% | 30.0% | 13.6% | 19.3% |
| Curveball | 9% | 9% | 45.5% | 26.1% | 20.1% |
Rays lineup
Projected · facing TBD| Spot | Hitter | 1+ hit | 2+ TB | HR | PA | Matchup (1+ hit) | wOBA vs hand | Talent grade | Type | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yandy Díaz DH · bats R | 69.1% | 42.5% | 13.2% | 4.0 | +0.7 | – | — | — | Normal |
| 2 | Liam Hicks C · bats L | 64.4% | 35.7% | 6.5% | 3.9 | +0.4 | – | — | — | Normal |
| 3 | Junior Caminero 3B · bats R | 67.9% | 45.2% | 20.3% | 3.8 | +0.9 | – | — | — | Normal |
| 4 | Victor Mesa Jr. RF · bats L | 63.2% | 40.1% | 16.1% | 3.8 | +0.8 | – | — | — | Normal |
| 5 | Chandler Simpson LF · bats L | 67.9% | 31.1% | 1.4% | 3.7 | +0.2 | – | — | — | Normal |
| 6 | Jonny DeLuca CF · bats R | 59.7% | 30.8% | 7.2% | 3.6 | +0.5 | – | — | — | Normal |
| 7 | Richie Palacios 2B · bats L | 59.7% | 32.8% | 9.8% | 3.5 | +0.6 | – | — | — | Normal |
| 8 | Ryan Vilade 1B · bats R | 53.8% | 31.8% | 12.7% | 3.4 | +0.8 | – | — | — | Normal |
| 9 | Taylor Walls SS · bats S | 49.2% | 24.8% | 5.1% | 3.3 | +0.4 | – | — | — | Normal |
Phillies lineup
Projected · facing Griffin Jax RHP| Spot | Hitter | 1+ hit | 2+ TB | HR | PA | Matchup (1+ hit) | wOBA vs hand | Talent grade | Type | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kyle Schwarber DH · bats L | 55.0% | 38.4% | 21.3% | 4.0 | -0.9 | .327 | A | Power | Cold |
| 2 | Trea Turner SS · bats R | 60.9% | 32.9% | 9.4% | 3.9 | -2.1 | .337 | C | Balanced | Cold |
| 3 | Bryce Harper RF · bats L | 62.2% | 38.0% | 14.4% | 3.8 | +0.7 | .395 | B | Balanced | Cold |
| 4 | Luis Arraez 2B · bats L | 72.1% | 40.9% | 5.3% | 3.8 | +0.2 | .310 | F | Balanced | Hot |
| 5 | Alec Bohm 1B · bats R | 67.4% | 38.7% | 10.7% | 3.7 | -0.9 | .318 | A | Power | Hot |
| 6 | Bryan De La Cruz LF · bats R | 57.0% | 30.0% | 8.5% | 3.6 | -1.2 | .353 | Avg | Balanced | Hot |
| 7 | Bryson Stott 2B · bats L | 58.4% | 31.0% | 7.7% | 3.5 | -0.5 | .340 | B | Contact | Normal |
| 8 | J.T. Realmuto C · bats R | 52.8% | 28.7% | 8.9% | 3.4 | -2.4 | .278 | Avg | Balanced | Cold |
| 9 | Justin Crawford CF · bats L | 57.1% | 27.5% | 6.8% | 3.3 | -0.6 | .316 | D | Power | Cold |