MLBengine v14
← TB at PHI, Sep 26, 2026
6:15 PM CT · Citizens Bank Park · lineup projected
Hitter · TB · batting 5Chandler Simpson
Bats leftTalent grade ——Normal
–wOBA vs RHP–xwOBA vs his mix3.7expected PA
Starter · PHITBD
Stable
4.3projected K–K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Chandler Simpson's last 40 balls in playHit (14)Out (26)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 88.9 mph at 1°Out: 91.5 mph at -20°Out: 27.4 mph at -14°Out: 81.8 mph at 40°Single: 94.7 mph at -26°Out: 105.3 mph at -20°Single: 93.3 mph at 5°Out: 80.3 mph at 45°Out: 73.5 mph at 63°Single: 73.4 mph at 15°Out: 82.8 mph at -6°Out: 98.5 mph at -3°Out: 30.9 mph at 3°Single: 89.8 mph at -9°Single: 67.5 mph at 26°Out: 98.4 mph at 4°Out: 81.7 mph at 31°Single: 90.7 mph at 5°Out: 73.0 mph at -47°Out: 91.4 mph at 17°Out: 88.0 mph at -21°Out: 90.1 mph at 36°Out: 100.9 mph at -22°Single: 92.9 mph at 8°Out: 79.2 mph at 31°Out: 84.4 mph at -9°Out: 94.2 mph at -7°Single: 81.3 mph at 10°Out: 41.1 mph at -16°Out: 49.7 mph at -36°Double: 66.5 mph at 10°Single: 101.3 mph at -6°Single: 77.5 mph at -44°Single: 80.3 mph at 16°Double: 98.0 mph at 19°Out: 65.1 mph at 57°Out: 78.9 mph at -43°Out: 92.5 mph at 7°Single: 99.5 mph at -6°Out: 60.0 mph at -82°
18% hit 95+ mph25% in the sweet spot35% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit67.9%67.7%+0.2
2+ total bases31.1%30.8%+0.3
Home run1.4%1.2%+0.1
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
0.0
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
+0.3
2+ total bases
Starter
0.0
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
+0.4
Home run
Starter
0.0
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.0
Park
+0.2

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Chandler Simpson · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G28.250.250.250.338.3260.0%0.0%0.0%78.598.40.0%12.5%25.0%
Last 15 G1231.345.387.379.376.3263.2%6.5%2.2%81.5101.30.0%25.0%25.0%
Last 30 G2670.297.348.328.351.3082.9%7.1%7.8%81.2101.30.0%12.7%27.0%
90 days66196.335.359.374.348.2994.1%4.6%8.1%81.4106.80.0%12.9%29.2%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 178 balls in play
Ground 58%Line drive 21%Fly ball 16%Pop-up 5%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G411.364.364.364.327.2209.1%0.0%25.0%82.2105.30.0%20.0%10.0%
Last 15 G1230.267.267.300.282.2563.3%0.0%12.5%78.7105.30.0%10.3%27.6%
Last 30 G2455.333.333.352.339.2625.5%0.0%11.0%77.4105.30.0%14.0%22.0%
90 days55112.361.361.426.374.2497.1%0.0%9.4%76.6105.30.0%13.9%25.7%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 101 balls in play
Ground 69%Line drive 16%Fly ball 12%Pop-up 3%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G519.316.316.316.332.2645.3%0.0%14.7%80.6105.30.0%16.7%16.7%
Last 15 G1561.305.328.339.330.2923.3%3.3%7.4%80.1105.30.0%17.5%26.3%
Last 30 G30125.314.341.339.346.2884.0%4.0%9.2%79.5105.30.0%13.3%24.8%
90 days74308.345.360.393.357.2825.2%2.9%8.6%79.7106.80.0%13.3%28.0%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 279 balls in play
Ground 62%Line drive 19%Fly ball 14%Pop-up 4%
Chandler Simpson · percentile ranksvs 304 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormNormal
Contact rating19Poor
Last 100 pitches37trending up
wOBA / xwOBA.347 / .282running 66 points ahead of his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit10/12
2+ total bases4/12
Home run0/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 24RHPFastball97.888.91.347Out
Sep 24RHPSinker97.791.5-20.094Out
Sep 24RHPFastball95.327.4-14.335Out
Sep 24RHPFastball92.381.840.013Out
Sep 24LHPSinker89.694.7-26.129Single
Sep 22LHPSinker95.3105.3-20.238Out
Sep 22LHPSinker91.693.35.521Single
Sep 22LHPFastball93.280.345.030Out
Sep 22LHPSweeper80.673.563.000Out
Sep 22LHPFastball93.073.415.483Single
Sep 22LHPSweeper77.982.8-6.173Out
Sep 20LHPSinker91.498.5-3.361Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 24511000
Sep 22311000
Sep 22411001
Sep 20311000
Sep 19422000
Sep 18500000
Sep 17522000
Sep 16423000
Sep 15334000
Sep 13511000

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent grade—— type
wOBA–
K%–
BB%–
Whiff%–
Barrel%–
Hard-hit%–
Avg EV–

Against right-handers, last 90 days

0 PA
wOBA–
xwOBA vs this mix–against pitches like his
RV/100–
Hard-hit%–
K%–
BB%–

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces

Starter not announced.

The rest of the gameTB @ PHI →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Chandler Simpson: every projection we've made →