← TB at PHI, Sep 26, 2026
6:15 PM CT · Citizens Bank Park · lineup projected
Hitter · TB · batting 7Richie Palacios
Bats leftTalent grade ——Normal
–wOBA vs RHP–xwOBA vs his mix3.5expected PA
Starter · PHITBD
Stable
4.3projected K–K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Richie Palacios's last 40 balls in playHit (14)Out (26)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Single: 77.3 mph at 1°Single: 69.8 mph at 21°Out: 79.2 mph at -4°Out: 85.7 mph at -1°Out: 90.3 mph at 18°Out: 90.0 mph at 46°Out: 92.0 mph at 0°Out: 96.8 mph at -8°Single: 65.7 mph at 36°Double: 95.8 mph at 20°Out: 87.8 mph at -14°Out: 94.0 mph at 7°Out: 97.1 mph at 1°Out: 98.2 mph at -17°Home run: 101.6 mph at 40°Single: 98.5 mph at 10°Out: 88.4 mph at 44°Out: 91.7 mph at 60°Single: 97.2 mph at 11°Out: 99.6 mph at 14°Out: 106.0 mph at 0°Single: 95.0 mph at -7°Single: 79.3 mph at 10°Out: 70.3 mph at 62°Out: 45.4 mph at -80°Home run: 104.6 mph at 20°Out: 78.8 mph at 10°Home run: 100.0 mph at 31°Out: 69.9 mph at -30°Out: 94.9 mph at 40°Home run: 98.4 mph at 28°Out: 88.7 mph at -2°Out: 76.5 mph at 56°Out: 93.7 mph at -19°Out: 69.9 mph at 36°Out: 83.2 mph at 73°Home run: 101.7 mph at 21°Out: 95.9 mph at -1°Out: 90.1 mph at 0°Single: 95.6 mph at -18°
40% hit 95+ mph30% in the sweet spot35% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit59.7%59.1%+0.6
2+ total bases32.8%31.9%+0.8
Home run9.8%8.9%+0.9
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
0.0
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.2
Park
+0.7
2+ total bases
Starter
0.0
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.2
Park
+1.1
Home run
Starter
0.0
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
+1.0

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Richie Palacios · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G511.333.455.333.373.34318.2%18.2%16.7%81.596.80.0%14.3%14.3%
Last 15 G1435.333.429.733.483.37714.3%14.3%13.8%89.5106.012.0%44.0%32.0%
Last 30 G2884.260.337.507.363.31613.1%10.7%14.9%86.8106.04.7%32.8%28.1%
90 days56160.268.354.500.374.33515.0%11.9%16.8%86.0106.06.0%33.6%34.5%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 116 balls in play
Ground 38%Line drive 24%Fly ball 27%Pop-up 11%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G36.200.333.400.325.33316.7%16.7%9.1%89.995.80.0%25.0%50.0%
Last 15 G813.182.308.273.273.3207.7%7.7%13.0%83.295.80.0%20.0%30.0%
Last 30 G1621.105.190.158.178.2529.5%4.8%15.8%83.795.90.0%25.0%25.0%
90 days2735.097.200.161.182.22417.1%8.6%23.0%84.3102.00.0%25.0%20.8%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 24 balls in play
Ground 67%Line drive 13%Fly ball 13%Pop-up 8%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G517.286.412.357.356.33917.6%17.6%13.8%84.696.80.0%18.2%27.3%
Last 15 G1548.293.396.610.426.36212.5%12.5%13.6%87.7106.08.6%37.1%31.4%
Last 30 G30105.228.308.435.327.30412.4%9.5%15.1%86.2106.03.8%31.2%27.5%
90 days60195.237.326.438.340.31615.4%11.3%17.9%85.7106.05.0%32.1%32.1%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 140 balls in play
Ground 43%Line drive 22%Fly ball 24%Pop-up 11%
Richie Palacios · percentile ranksvs 304 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormNormal
Contact rating49Average
Last 100 pitches89trending up
wOBA / xwOBA.333 / .315running 18 points ahead of his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit9/12
2+ total bases3/12
Home run2/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 24RHPCurveball84.077.31.156Single
Sep 23RHPChangeup87.669.821.877Single
Sep 23RHPSinker94.479.2-4.097Out
Sep 23LHPFastball92.685.7-1.231Out
Sep 22LHPSinker94.090.318.586Double play
Sep 22RHPCurveball78.590.046.004Out
Sep 19RHPChangeup90.192.00.325Fielder's choice
Sep 19RHPFastball98.196.8-8.238Force out
Sep 19RHPSinker95.265.736.676Single
Sep 17LHPSlider84.095.820.360Double
Sep 17LHPFastball92.087.8-14.123Out
Sep 16LHPFastball95.494.07.482Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 24211010
Sep 23411001
Sep 22300001
Sep 19411001
Sep 17412020
Sep 16100000
Sep 15300001
Sep 13425100
Sep 12211000
Sep 11311010

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent grade—— type
wOBA–
K%–
BB%–
Whiff%–
Barrel%–
Hard-hit%–
Avg EV–

Against right-handers, last 90 days

0 PA
wOBA–
xwOBA vs this mix–against pitches like his
RV/100–
Hard-hit%–
K%–
BB%–

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces

Starter not announced.

The rest of the gameTB @ PHI →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Richie Palacios: every projection we've made →