Hitter · TB · batting 4Victor Mesa Jr.
Bats leftTalent grade ——Normal
–wOBA vs RHP–xwOBA vs his mix3.8expected PA
1+ hit+0.8 pts matchup
2+ total bases+1.2 pts matchup
Home run+1.4 pts matchup
48% hit 95+ mph35% in the sweet spot40% fell for hits
| Market | BTB | Without the matchup | Matchup |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1+ hit | 63.2% | 62.4% | +0.8 |
| 2+ total bases | 40.1% | 39.0% | +1.2 |
| Home run | 16.1% | 14.7% | +1.4 |
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
0.0
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen-0.2
Park+1.0
2+ total bases
Starter
0.0
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen-0.3
Park+1.5
Home run
Starter
0.0
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen-0.2
Park+1.6
Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.
Statcast
opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonightVictor Mesa Jr. · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
| Window | G | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | xwOBA | K% | BB% | Whiff% | Avg EV | Max EV | Barrel% | Hard-hit% | Sweet-spot% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 G | 3 | 11 | .000 | .091 | .000 | .064 | .089 | 45.5% | 9.1% | 41.7% | 81.9 | 99.7 | 0.0% | 20.0% | 0.0% |
| Last 15 G | 12 | 33 | .310 | .394 | .724 | .462 | .395 | 21.2% | 12.1% | 28.8% | 89.6 | 107.1 | 13.6% | 50.0% | 31.8% |
| Last 30 G | 26 | 73 | .273 | .333 | .621 | .401 | .358 | 17.8% | 6.8% | 29.0% | 87.4 | 107.1 | 13.0% | 40.7% | 29.6% |
| 90 days | 46 | 132 | .235 | .298 | .529 | .350 | .330 | 22.7% | 7.6% | 24.1% | 88.6 | 110.4 | 12.1% | 44.0% | 30.8% |
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 91 balls in play
Ground 28%Line drive 17%Fly ball 40%Pop-up 17%
| Window | G | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | xwOBA | K% | BB% | Whiff% | Avg EV | Max EV | Barrel% | Hard-hit% | Sweet-spot% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 G | 4 | 8 | .429 | .500 | .857 | .562 | .526 | 0.0% | 12.5% | 0.0% | 91.3 | 104.5 | 14.3% | 57.1% | 28.6% |
| Last 15 G | 10 | 23 | .350 | .435 | .600 | .443 | .390 | 8.7% | 13.0% | 13.3% | 88.4 | 105.1 | 5.6% | 44.4% | 38.9% |
| Last 30 G | 17 | 35 | .375 | .429 | .531 | .420 | .328 | 8.6% | 8.6% | 12.9% | 88.3 | 105.1 | 3.4% | 37.9% | 34.5% |
| 90 days | 30 | 54 | .340 | .389 | .520 | .395 | .304 | 11.1% | 7.4% | 14.3% | 85.3 | 107.7 | 4.5% | 31.8% | 29.5% |
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 44 balls in play
Ground 50%Line drive 11%Fly ball 25%Pop-up 14%
| Window | G | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | xwOBA | K% | BB% | Whiff% | Avg EV | Max EV | Barrel% | Hard-hit% | Sweet-spot% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 G | 5 | 19 | .176 | .263 | .353 | .274 | .273 | 26.3% | 10.5% | 25.0% | 87.4 | 104.5 | 8.3% | 41.7% | 16.7% |
| Last 15 G | 15 | 56 | .327 | .411 | .673 | .454 | .393 | 16.1% | 12.5% | 22.5% | 89.1 | 107.1 | 10.0% | 47.5% | 35.0% |
| Last 30 G | 30 | 108 | .306 | .364 | .592 | .407 | .349 | 14.8% | 7.4% | 24.0% | 87.7 | 107.1 | 9.6% | 39.8% | 31.3% |
| 90 days | 51 | 186 | .266 | .324 | .527 | .363 | .322 | 19.4% | 7.5% | 21.5% | 87.5 | 110.4 | 9.6% | 40.0% | 30.4% |
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 135 balls in play
Ground 35%Line drive 15%Fly ball 35%Pop-up 16%
xwOBA58.322
Avg EV4287.5
Max EV62110.4
Barrel%759.6%
Hard-hit%5840.0%
Sweet-spot%1530.4%
K%6519.4%
BB%367.5%
Whiff%5521.5%
Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.
FormNormal
Contact rating58Average
Last 100 pitches17trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.363 / .326running 36 points ahead of his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit8/12
2+ total bases4/12
Home run3/12
Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.
Recent contact
| Date | Pitcher | Pitch | Velo | EV | LA | xwOBA | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 24 | RHP | Slider | 84.5 | 86.5 | 65 | .005 | Out |
| Sep 24 | RHP | Cutter | 86.8 | 99.7 | 43 | .103 | Out |
| Sep 24 | LHP | Sinker | 88.2 | 104.5 | 2 | .498 | Single |
| Sep 23 | RHP | Slider | 89.5 | 83.2 | 83 | .012 | Out |
| Sep 23 | RHP | Curveball | 81.6 | 72.4 | -41 | .100 | Out |
| Sep 23 | LHP | Sinker | 87.0 | 78.6 | -57 | .238 | Out |
| Sep 22 | LHP | Slider | 88.0 | 102.9 | -16 | .219 | Out |
| Sep 22 | LHP | Fastball | 94.7 | 102.2 | 12 | .936 | Single |
| Sep 22 | LHP | Slider | 88.0 | 63.7 | 0 | .091 | Out |
| Sep 20 | LHP | Slider | 85.1 | 83.0 | 67 | .003 | Out |
| Sep 20 | LHP | Fastball | 94.9 | 103.9 | 31 | 1.522 | Home run |
| Sep 19 | RHP | Changeup | 90.0 | 67.9 | -8 | .066 | Out |
Total bases, last 10 games★ home run
| Date | PA | H | TB | HR | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 24 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Sep 23 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Sep 22 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sep 20 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Sep 19 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Sep 18 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Sep 16 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Sep 15 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sep 13 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Sep 12 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
The hitter
season-level talent readTalent grade—— type
wOBA–
K%–
BB%–
Whiff%–
Barrel%–
Hard-hit%–
Avg EV–
Against right-handers, last 90 days
0 PAwOBA–
xwOBA vs this mix–against pitches like his
RV/100–
Hard-hit%–
K%–
BB%–
Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.
The starter he faces
Starter not announced.
The rest of the gameTB @ PHI →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Victor Mesa Jr.: every projection we've made →