← TB at PHI, Sep 26, 2026
6:15 PM CT · Citizens Bank Park · lineup projected
Hitter · TB · batting 1Yandy Díaz
Bats rightTalent grade ——Normal
–wOBA vs RHP–xwOBA vs his mix4.0expected PA
Starter · PHITBD
Stable
4.3projected K–K%2.7trips vs this hitter
Yandy Díaz's last 40 balls in playHit (7)Out (33)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Single: 70.8 mph at 25°Single: 97.0 mph at 14°Out: 90.9 mph at 42°Out: 92.7 mph at -33°Out: 77.9 mph at 48°Out: 65.5 mph at 39°Out: 100.2 mph at 28°Out: 82.0 mph at -11°Single: 102.0 mph at 9°Single: 101.1 mph at -8°Out: 69.8 mph at 0°Out: 81.8 mph at -36°Out: 96.4 mph at 23°Out: 86.8 mph at 36°Out: 99.9 mph at -16°Out: 75.2 mph at -27°Out: 82.6 mph at 27°Out: 90.8 mph at -9°Out: 92.0 mph at 52°Out: 75.6 mph at -12°Out: 51.3 mph at -58°Out: 101.3 mph at 27°Out: 102.2 mph at -4°Out: 106.3 mph at 0°Out: 79.6 mph at -36°Out: 96.7 mph at 26°Single: 111.5 mph at 2°Out: 74.1 mph at -47°Out: 89.0 mph at 26°Single: 101.1 mph at -6°Out: 98.0 mph at 53°Out: 88.1 mph at 33°Out: 71.3 mph at -47°Out: 105.9 mph at -16°Out: 88.6 mph at 39°Out: 90.2 mph at 51°Out: 68.4 mph at 86°Out: 108.2 mph at -8°Single: 94.0 mph at 8°Out: 93.7 mph at 29°
38% hit 95+ mph28% in the sweet spot18% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit69.1%68.4%+0.7
2+ total bases42.5%41.4%+1.1
Home run13.2%11.9%+1.3
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
0.0
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
+0.8
2+ total bases
Starter
0.0
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
+1.2
Home run
Starter
0.0
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.0
Park
+1.4

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Yandy Díaz · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G49.500.556.500.478.3990.0%11.1%13.3%89.0102.00.0%37.5%37.5%
Last 15 G1440.237.250.342.256.23022.5%2.5%17.9%89.7111.56.7%40.0%26.7%
Last 30 G2789.259.281.365.283.26018.0%3.4%14.9%90.6111.55.7%45.7%28.6%
90 days71246.262.297.371.313.29818.7%4.9%14.2%90.8113.15.4%48.4%30.1%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 186 balls in play
Ground 57%Line drive 20%Fly ball 15%Pop-up 8%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G414.000.214.000.150.29321.4%21.4%9.5%84.8100.212.5%37.5%25.0%
Last 15 G1128.120.214.120.171.34610.7%10.7%8.5%90.0108.29.1%50.0%36.4%
Last 30 G1747.175.298.275.268.4108.5%14.9%9.9%90.0108.211.1%50.0%33.3%
90 days4198.230.316.402.318.4088.2%11.2%9.9%91.8113.08.9%50.6%32.9%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 79 balls in play
Ground 49%Line drive 18%Fly ball 27%Pop-up 6%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G523.211.348.211.278.33513.0%17.4%11.1%86.9102.06.2%37.5%31.2%
Last 15 G1568.190.235.254.221.27817.6%5.9%13.9%89.8111.57.7%44.2%30.8%
Last 30 G30136.232.287.336.278.31014.7%7.4%13.1%90.4111.57.5%47.2%30.2%
90 days76344.253.302.380.314.32915.7%6.7%13.0%91.1113.16.4%49.1%30.9%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 265 balls in play
Ground 55%Line drive 19%Fly ball 19%Pop-up 8%
Yandy Díaz · percentile ranksvs 304 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormNormal
Contact rating78Above average
Last 100 pitches70trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.310 / .344running 34 points behind his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit4/12
2+ total bases3/12
Home run0/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 24RHPCutter93.370.825.890Single
Sep 24RHPCutter88.697.014.863Single
Sep 24RHPCutter86.190.942.018Out
Sep 24RHPCutter94.692.7-33.058Out
Sep 22LHPFastball95.477.948.067Out
Sep 22LHPCurveball75.365.539.473Out
Sep 22LHPSinker92.3100.228.939Out
Sep 22RHPSplitter91.482.0-11.077Out
Sep 22RHPSinker93.1102.09.714Single
Sep 22RHPCutter88.0101.1-8.239Single
Sep 22LHPCutter92.469.80.077Out
Sep 20LHPFastball94.881.8-36.049Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 24522010
Sep 22400002
Sep 22522000
Sep 20400010
Sep 18500021
Sep 17500002
Sep 16400000
Sep 15400001
Sep 13522000
Sep 12400001

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent grade—— type
wOBA–
K%–
BB%–
Whiff%–
Barrel%–
Hard-hit%–
Avg EV–

Against right-handers, last 90 days

0 PA
wOBA–
xwOBA vs this mix–against pitches like his
RV/100–
Hard-hit%–
K%–
BB%–

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces

Starter not announced.

The rest of the gameTB @ PHI →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Yandy Díaz: every projection we've made →