← TEX at MIN, Sep 26, 2026
3:10 PM CT · Target Field · lineup projected
Hitter · MIN · batting 5Alan Roden
Bats leftTalent grade ——Normal
–wOBA vs RHP–xwOBA vs his mix3.7expected PA
Starter · TEXTBD
Stable
4.2projected K–K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Alan Roden's last 40 balls in playHit (15)Out (25)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Single: 69.1 mph at 16°Out: 54.4 mph at 28°Out: 82.5 mph at 5°Single: 101.2 mph at 7°Out: 59.4 mph at -23°Single: 95.2 mph at 14°Home run: 95.7 mph at 32°Single: 95.7 mph at 10°Out: 81.0 mph at -10°Out: 71.0 mph at 9°Out: 100.1 mph at 35°Single: 29.8 mph at -41°Double: 76.3 mph at 6°Single: 104.5 mph at 7°Out: 85.7 mph at 8°Out: 79.4 mph at -34°Single: 102.2 mph at 12°Out: 77.3 mph at -30°Out: 20.7 mph at -26°Out: 107.3 mph at 3°Double: 99.8 mph at 28°Single: 75.5 mph at 23°Double: 89.2 mph at 5°Out: 85.1 mph at 51°Out: 96.5 mph at -31°Out: 73.6 mph at -11°Out: 73.9 mph at -52°Out: 59.1 mph at 52°Out: 55.3 mph at 82°Double: 105.7 mph at 13°Out: 101.9 mph at 4°Out: 71.8 mph at 32°Out: 90.4 mph at 40°Out: 101.2 mph at 1°Single: 69.1 mph at 21°Out: 83.9 mph at 39°Single: 70.1 mph at -59°Out: 95.8 mph at -10°Out: 84.7 mph at 0°Out: 90.2 mph at -14°
35% hit 95+ mph33% in the sweet spot38% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit60.2%60.0%+0.2
2+ total bases31.0%31.0%-0.1
Home run6.6%7.2%-0.6
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
0.0
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
+0.4
2+ total bases
Starter
0.0
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.3
Park
+0.2
Home run
Starter
0.0
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.3
Park
-0.3

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Alan Roden · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G511.444.545.556.486.4619.1%18.2%5.6%85.2101.20.0%50.0%37.5%
Last 15 G1536.310.417.448.381.4088.3%16.7%10.2%84.7107.33.7%37.0%33.3%
Last 30 G2972.233.333.300.329.35112.5%13.9%14.8%86.7107.33.8%39.6%34.0%
90 days2972.233.333.300.329.35112.5%13.9%14.8%86.7107.33.8%39.6%34.0%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 53 balls in play
Ground 49%Line drive 23%Fly ball 19%Pop-up 9%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G58.571.6251.000.675.32712.5%12.5%21.4%72.4104.50.0%33.3%50.0%
Last 15 G813.545.583.818.675.39915.4%7.7%21.7%70.5104.50.0%30.0%40.0%
Last 30 G1319.471.500.647.550.40215.8%5.3%20.0%80.2104.50.0%46.7%33.3%
90 days1319.471.500.647.550.40215.8%5.3%20.0%80.2104.50.0%46.7%33.3%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 15 balls in play
Ground 53%Line drive 20%Fly ball 27%Pop-up 0%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G519.500.579.750.566.40510.5%15.8%12.5%79.7104.50.0%42.9%42.9%
Last 15 G1549.375.458.550.454.40610.2%14.3%13.4%80.8107.32.7%35.1%35.1%
Last 30 G3091.286.367.377.373.36113.2%12.1%16.0%85.2107.32.9%41.2%33.8%
90 days3091.286.367.377.373.36113.2%12.1%16.0%85.2107.32.9%41.2%33.8%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 68 balls in play
Ground 50%Line drive 22%Fly ball 21%Pop-up 7%
Alan Roden · percentile ranksvs 304 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormNormal
Contact rating94Top tier
Last 100 pitches99steady
wOBA / xwOBA.361 / .382running 21 points behind his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit8/12
2+ total bases4/12
Home run1/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 23LHPChangeup87.669.116.440Single
Sep 23LHPChangeup86.754.428.180Out
Sep 23RHPSweeper81.382.55.299Out
Sep 21RHPSweeper83.3101.27.589Single
Sep 21RHPSweeper85.459.4-23.054Out
Sep 20RHPCutter91.495.214.895Single
Sep 20LHPSlider81.595.732.362Home run
Sep 20RHPSplitter83.795.710.648Single
Sep 20LHPSinker88.681.0-10.096Out
Aug 26RHPChangeup86.371.09.260Out
Aug 26RHPFastball96.5100.135.688Out
Aug 26LHPFastball93.829.8-41.246Single
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 23411010
Sep 21311010
Sep 20536101
Aug 26411010
Aug 23323001
Aug 18300001
Aug 17411000
Aug 12435010
Aug 11400001
Aug 9200001

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent grade—— type
wOBA–
K%–
BB%–
Whiff%–
Barrel%–
Hard-hit%–
Avg EV–

Against right-handers, last 90 days

0 PA
wOBA–
xwOBA vs this mix–against pitches like his
RV/100–
Hard-hit%–
K%–
BB%–

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces

Starter not announced.

The rest of the gameTEX @ MIN →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Alan Roden: every projection we've made →