Rangers at Twins
3:10 PM CT · Target Field · 59F · Wind in 7 mph · 67% precip risk
The game
Game totals, win probability and the first inning are research only: in the backtest they don't beat the league-wide rate. Shown as projections, never as plays.
- Carry
- – vs neutral air
- Weather
- 59°F · Wind in · roof open
- Park factor
- Runs 107 · HR 96 100 = average
- Schedule
- TEX day-after-night; MIN day-after-night
Air density from observed temperature, dew point and pressure. It shapes batted balls, not the run total directly.
TEX starter not announced yet.
| Date | Pitches | K% | Whiff% | Hard-hit% | wOBA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 15 | 101 | 11% | 7% | 41% | .393 |
| Sep 6 | 84 | 29% | 13% | 24% | .338 |
| Aug 29 | 80 | 25% | 5% | 15% | .222 |
Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.
5 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight
Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.6%. Red strikes out more, blue less.
Pitch-mix battles
each lineup against the starter it faces| Bailey Ober's pitches | TEX lineup vs that pitch | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pitch | Usage | Velo | BTB Stuff | Whiff% | RV/100 | wOBA | Whiff% | Hard-hit% | Edge |
| Fastball | 32% | 87.5 | 77 | 6.3% | -0.03 | .326 | 10.2% | 23.5% | +0.16 |
| Changeup | 31% | 82.2 | 83 | 8.9% | -1.02 | .234 | 14.8% | 22.5% | -1.50 |
| Slider | 20% | 82.4 | 88 | 7.0% | 0.12 | .286 | 18.5% | 23.9% | -0.66 |
| Sweeper | 14% | 75.6 | 88 | 19.9% | 2.66 | .318 | 16.3% | 21.1% | -0.51 |
| Sinker | 2% | 88.4 | 59 | 0.0% | -2.67 | .332 | 6.1% | 32.2% | +0.09 |
Bullpens
No one pitched yesterday.
Ranked on a blend of K-BB% (60%) and wOBA allowed (40%) over the bullpen window. Tired arms are context: in our tests bullpen rest didn't improve run totals.
No one pitched yesterday.
Ranked on a blend of K-BB% (60%) and wOBA allowed (40%) over the bullpen window. Tired arms are context: in our tests bullpen rest didn't improve run totals.
Two strikes
how each starter finishes hitters| Pitch | Overall | 2 strikes | Whiff% | Put-away | League put-away |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Changeup | 31% | 34% | 15.3% | 11.5% | 18.6% |
| Fastball | 32% | 26% | 10.7% | 8.8% | 18.0% |
| Sweeper | 14% | 22% | 41.7% | 25.4% | 19.3% |
| Slider | 20% | 16% | 17.2% | 18.0% | 21.0% |
| Sinker | 3% | 1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 16.9% |
| Curveball | 1% | 0% | – | 0.0% | 20.1% |
Rangers lineup
Projected · facing Bailey Ober RHP| Spot | Hitter | 1+ hit | 2+ TB | HR | PA | Matchup (1+ hit) | wOBA vs hand | Talent grade | Type | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Justin Foscue 2B · bats R | 64.7% | 39.3% | 12.4% | 4.0 | +3.6 | .268 | Avg | Balanced | Normal |
| 2 | Corey Seager SS · bats L | 72.4% | 51.0% | 22.6% | 3.9 | +4.6 | .323 | A | Power | Cold |
| 3 | Josh Jung 3B · bats R | 69.7% | 42.9% | 13.2% | 3.8 | +3.1 | .336 | A | Power | Normal |
| 4 | Jake Burger 1B · bats R | 59.7% | 37.8% | 16.6% | 3.8 | +1.5 | .260 | B | Power | Cold |
| 5 | Brandon Nimmo RF · bats L | 62.3% | 37.1% | 10.6% | 3.7 | +2.2 | .257 | B | Power | Cold |
| 6 | Wyatt Langford LF · bats R | 54.9% | 32.7% | 11.8% | 3.6 | +2.8 | .347 | C | Balanced | Normal |
| 7 | Ezequiel Duran 3B · bats R | 60.8% | 33.6% | 9.7% | 3.5 | +2.5 | .308 | D | Balanced | Cold |
| 8 | Elias Díaz C · bats R | 55.3% | 29.6% | 8.8% | 3.4 | +1.4 | .238 | F | Balanced | Cold |
| 9 | Danny Jansen DH · bats R | 56.7% | 30.3% | 10.0% | 3.3 | +2.7 | .357 | D | Balanced | Hot |
Twins lineup
Projected · facing TBD| Spot | Hitter | 1+ hit | 2+ TB | HR | PA | Matchup (1+ hit) | wOBA vs hand | Talent grade | Type | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Luke Keaschall RF · bats R | 67.6% | 37.3% | 8.5% | 4.0 | +0.3 | – | — | — | Normal |
| 2 | Brooks Lee 3B · bats S | 64.1% | 38.1% | 9.8% | 3.9 | +0.2 | – | — | — | Normal |
| 3 | Josh Bell DH · bats S | 64.8% | 41.8% | 14.1% | 3.8 | +0.1 | – | — | — | Normal |
| 4 | Ryan Jeffers C · bats R | 62.2% | 35.4% | 10.1% | 3.8 | +0.3 | – | — | — | Normal |
| 5 | Alan Roden LF · bats L | 60.2% | 31.0% | 6.6% | 3.7 | +0.2 | – | — | — | Normal |
| 6 | Royce Lewis 2B · bats R | 60.9% | 34.5% | 10.5% | 3.6 | +0.3 | – | — | — | Normal |
| 7 | Emmanuel Rodriguez RF · bats L | 58.7% | 33.4% | 12.2% | 3.5 | -0.1 | – | — | — | Normal |
| 8 | Aaron Sabato 1B · bats R | 55.6% | 30.3% | 9.2% | 3.4 | +0.3 | – | — | — | Normal |
| 9 | Ben Ross SS · bats R | 53.6% | 28.3% | 8.9% | 3.3 | +0.3 | – | — | — | Normal |