MLBengine v14
← TEX at MIN, Sep 26, 2026
3:10 PM CT · Target Field · lineup confirmed
Hitter · TEX · batting 10Alejandro Osuna
Bats leftTalent grade FBalancedNormal
.304wOBA vs RHP.289xwOBA vs his mix3.6expected PA
Starter · MINBailey Ober
Throws rightBTB Stuff 82Trending Up
3.9projected K18%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Bailey Ober's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 41% usage, 91.3 mph, +7.6″ arm side, +16.6″ rise. Alejandro Osuna: wOBA .344 vs league .361 (pitcher's edge).Fastball 41%Changeup: 27% usage, 83.4 mph, +17.4″ arm side, +6.0″ rise. Alejandro Osuna: wOBA .290 vs league .307 (pitcher's edge).Changeup 27%Slider: 14% usage, 83.8 mph, -4.3″ arm side, +5.8″ rise. Alejandro Osuna: wOBA .330 vs league .346 (pitcher's edge).Slider 14%Sweeper: 12% usage, 79.7 mph, -12.1″ arm side, +0.7″ rise. Alejandro Osuna: wOBA .314 vs league .330 (pitcher's edge).Sweeper 12%Curveball: 5% usage, 76.0 mph, -9.0″ arm side, -10.3″ rise. Alejandro Osuna: wOBA .281 vs league .298 (pitcher's edge).Curveball 5%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Alejandro Osuna's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Alejandro Osuna's last 40 balls in playHit (13)Out (27)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Single: 80.9 mph at 16°Out: 60.4 mph at -20°Single: 90.8 mph at 14°Out: 62.0 mph at 56°Out: 89.5 mph at 25°Out: 100.3 mph at -2°Single: 97.8 mph at 1°Out: 92.2 mph at 19°Out: 90.5 mph at 26°Out: 68.8 mph at -24°Single: 104.9 mph at 12°Out: 79.2 mph at -31°Out: 44.5 mph at -74°Out: 81.7 mph at -24°Out: 92.4 mph at -3°Out: 102.1 mph at 19°Double: 92.9 mph at 25°Single: 73.6 mph at 27°Out: 75.8 mph at -38°Out: 58.0 mph at -23°Single: 59.5 mph at 32°Single: 91.4 mph at 17°Out: 107.0 mph at -18°Single: 108.2 mph at -6°Out: 92.3 mph at 45°Out: 50.2 mph at 44°Out: 68.1 mph at -7°Single: 104.5 mph at -21°Out: 68.9 mph at -43°Single: 79.8 mph at 13°Out: 71.2 mph at -23°Home run: 102.0 mph at 22°Out: 80.8 mph at 31°Out: 64.6 mph at 64°Out: 88.0 mph at -2°Out: 98.3 mph at 15°Out: 84.8 mph at 29°Out: 89.4 mph at -4°Out: 93.2 mph at 33°Single: 67.5 mph at 17°
23% hit 95+ mph43% in the sweet spot33% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit60.9%57.4%+3.5
2+ total bases34.6%31.6%+2.9
Home run7.1%6.3%+0.8
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+3.4
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.2
Park
+0.3
2+ total bases
Starter
+2.9
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.2
Park
+0.2
Home run
Starter
+1.2
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.0
Park
-0.4

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Alejandro Osuna hits
Where they meet

.316 xwOBA for Alejandro Osuna in the spots Bailey Ober throws to lefties

The average hitter in those same spots: .312 (+4 points). His best spot against righties is down and right, outside, and Bailey Ober puts 19% of his pitches there. Context only; the projection reads pitch type, not location.

Bailey Ober · where he throws to left-handed hitters
2% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 50% per swing2%3% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 12% per swing3%2% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 20% per swing2%8% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 8% per swing8%7% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing7%3% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 6% per swing3%8% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 6% per swing8%9% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 11% per swing9%5% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 5% per swing5%14% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing14%2% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 33% per swing2%17% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 17% per swing17%19% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 36% per swing19%
All · 608 pitches · catcher's view
0% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters0% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters0% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters7% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters7%4% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters4%1% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters1%11% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters11%10% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters10%5% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters5%11% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters11%0% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters28% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters28%23% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters23%
Changeup · 236 pitches · catcher's view
6% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters6%8% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters8%5% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters5%13% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters13%11% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters11%5% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters5%4% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters4%5% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters5%6% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters6%21% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters21%4% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters4%4% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters4%10% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters10%
Fastball · 197 pitches · catcher's view
1% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters1%4% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters4%1% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters1%4% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters4%5% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters5%5% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters5%13% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters13%7% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters7%5% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters5%9% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters9%2% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters2%23% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters23%22% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters22%
Slider · 115 pitches · catcher's view
2% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters2%0% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters0% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters10% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters10%6% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters6%2% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters2%6% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters6%15% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters15%10% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters10%8% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters8%0% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters6% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters6%33% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters33%
Sweeper · 48 pitches · catcher's view

Share of his pitches in each spot; darker is more. Last 90 days.

Alejandro Osuna · hot and cold vs RHP
xwOBA .270 shrunk (raw .244 on 2 PA) · league .274 · 7 pitches seen.270xwOBA .297 shrunk (raw .177 on 1 PA) · league .307 · 4 pitches seen.297xwOBA .243 shrunk (raw .000 on 1 PA) · league .263 · 5 pitches seen.243xwOBA .346 shrunk (raw .396 on 1 PA) · league .342 · 6 pitches seen.346xwOBA .359 shrunk (raw .196 on 2 PA) · league .386 · 13 pitches seen.359xwOBA .281 shrunk (raw .186 on 5 PA) · league .321 · 15 pitches seen.281xwOBA .306 shrunk (raw .296 on 3 PA) · league .308 · 8 pitches seen.306xwOBA .298 shrunk (raw .084 on 3 PA) · league .351 · 8 pitches seen.298xwOBA .258 shrunk (raw .156 on 4 PA) · league .292 · 13 pitches seen.258xwOBA .325 shrunk (raw .013 on 2 PA) · league .377 · 22 pitches seen.325xwOBA .272 shrunk (raw .264 on 3 PA) · league .274 · 14 pitches seen.272xwOBA .291 shrunk (raw .340 on 7 PA) · league .263 · 22 pitches seen.291xwOBA .359 shrunk (raw .460 on 10 PA) · league .274 · 28 pitches seen.359
vs RHP · 165 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 0% of 3 swings · league 22%0%Whiff 50% of 2 swings · league 20%50%Whiff 67% of 3 swings · league 19%67%Whiff 0% of 4 swings · league 10%0%Whiff 0% of 7 swings · league 9%0%Whiff 0% of 8 swings · league 11%0%Whiff 33% of 6 swings · league 14%33%Whiff 14% of 7 swings · league 13%14%Whiff 33% of 6 swings · league 17%33%Whiff 0% of 4 swings · league 28%0%Whiff 0% of 3 swings · league 24%0%Whiff 9% of 11 swings · league 32%9%Whiff 42% of 12 swings · league 49%42%
vs RHP · 165 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 43% of 7 pitches · league 62%43%Swings at 50% of 4 pitches · league 72%50%Swings at 60% of 5 pitches · league 66%60%Swings at 67% of 6 pitches · league 70%67%Swings at 54% of 13 pitches · league 76%54%Swings at 53% of 15 pitches · league 70%53%Swings at 75% of 8 pitches · league 65%75%Swings at 88% of 8 pitches · league 68%88%Swings at 46% of 13 pitches · league 60%46%Swings at 18% of 22 pitches · league 24%18%Swings at 21% of 14 pitches · league 34%21%Swings at 50% of 22 pitches · league 40%50%Swings at 43% of 28 pitches · league 32%43%
vs RHP · 165 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Alejandro Osuna against each of Bailey Ober's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball41%91.3+8″ / +17″.344.36113.1%17.0%71About league average vs these
Changeup27%83.4+17″ / +6″.290.30714.0%27.0%47About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Slider14%83.8-4″ / +6″.330.34616.1%25.1%26About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Sweeper12%79.7-12″ / +1″.314.33015.9%24.9%15About league average vs these
Curveball5%76.0-9″ / -10″.281.29818.0%27.9%9About league average vs these
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Alejandro Osuna · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G58.286.375.286.312.34637.5%0.0%33.3%80.490.80.0%0.0%75.0%
Last 15 G1322.200.273.250.243.26036.4%4.5%27.3%88.8102.10.0%25.0%58.3%
Last 30 G2445.225.311.325.297.27220.0%8.9%18.4%85.9104.53.3%26.7%40.0%
90 days2445.225.311.325.297.27220.0%8.9%18.4%85.9104.53.3%26.7%40.0%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 30 balls in play
Ground 47%Line drive 23%Fly ball 27%Pop-up 3%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G11.000.000.000.000.0080.0%0.0%20.0%62.062.00.0%0.0%0.0%
Last 15 G514.385.429.385.371.3097.1%7.1%22.7%78.2108.20.0%25.0%33.3%
Last 30 G1231.276.323.276.287.29512.9%3.2%20.0%80.4108.20.0%16.7%25.0%
90 days1231.276.323.276.287.29512.9%3.2%20.0%80.4108.20.0%16.7%25.0%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 24 balls in play
Ground 54%Line drive 17%Fly ball 25%Pop-up 4%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G59.250.333.250.278.30833.3%0.0%30.0%76.790.80.0%0.0%60.0%
Last 15 G1536.273.333.303.293.27925.0%5.6%25.8%83.5108.20.0%25.0%45.8%
Last 30 G2776.246.316.304.293.28117.1%6.6%19.0%83.4108.21.9%22.2%33.3%
90 days2776.246.316.304.293.28117.1%6.6%19.0%83.4108.21.9%22.2%33.3%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 54 balls in play
Ground 50%Line drive 20%Fly ball 26%Pop-up 4%
Alejandro Osuna · percentile ranksvs 228 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormNormal
Contact rating23Poor
Last 100 pitches26steady
wOBA / xwOBA.291 / .287results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit4/12
2+ total bases2/12
Home run0/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 20RHPSlider88.080.916.898Single
Sep 20RHPChangeup82.360.4-20.047Out
Sep 20RHPSinker81.990.814.917Single
Sep 20LHPCutter91.562.056.008Out
Aug 4RHPSinker93.889.525.177Out
Aug 3RHPSplitter89.1100.3-2.321Out
Aug 1RHPChangeup84.897.81.396Single
Aug 1RHPCutter93.392.219.403Out
Aug 1RHPChangeup84.590.526.129Out
Jul 30LHPCurveball81.168.8-24.036Out
Jul 30LHPFastball96.8104.912.916Single
Jul 29LHPChangeup82.179.2-31.043Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25200001
Sep 22100001
Sep 20422000
Sep 15100001
Aug 4100000
Aug 3100000
Aug 2100010
Aug 1411001
Jul 30411011
Jul 29300000

Two strikes

Bailey Ober MIN · RHPwith two strikes
Bailey Ober with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Changeup31%34%15.3%11.5%18.4%
Fastball32%26%10.7%8.8%18.3%
Sweeper14%22%41.7%25.4%20.7%
Slider20%16%17.2%18.0%21.4%
Sinker3%1%0.0%0.0%17.7%
Curveball1%0%–0.0%20.7%
Alejandro Osuna bats Lwith two strikes, vs this hand
Alejandro Osuna with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Makes contact on his two-strike stuff more than most
With two strikesHimLeague
K%34.6%41.3%
Whiff%16.0%21.6%
Contact%84.0%78.4%
Chase%37.1%39.4%
wOBA.225.246
Whiff vs his put-away shapes15.1%20.4%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeFBalanced type
wOBA.293
K%19.5%
BB%9.6%
Whiff%10.1%
Barrel%3.5%
Hard-hit%22.5%
Avg EV87.0

Against right-handers, last 90 days

45 PA
wOBA.304
xwOBA vs this mix.289against pitches like his
RV/100-0.58
Hard-hit%21.1%
K%21.0%
BB%7.2%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Bailey OberRHP · MIN vs TEX6 days' rest
3.9projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 7 · 22.1 batters over 5.2 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 44.9%45%≤34 strikeouts: 19.4%19%45 strikeouts: 15.2%15%56 strikeouts: 10.0%10%67 strikeouts: 5.7%6%78 strikeouts: 2.8%3%89+ strikeouts: 2.0%2%9+book 4.5
Over 4.5: 36% (red bars) · under: 64%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%17.7%
BB%7.1%
Whiff%9.2%
Velo83.1
BTB Stuff82
Location109
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff%
Fastball32%7787.56.3%
Changeup31%8382.28.9%
Slider20%8882.47.0%
Sweeper14%8875.619.9%
Sinker2%5988.40.0%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 1510111%7%41%.393
Sep 68429%13%24%.338
Aug 298025%5%15%.222

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Bailey Ober MIN · RHPvsTEX lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

4 of 10 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.7%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameTEX @ MIN →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Alejandro Osuna: every projection we've made →