MLBengine v14
← TEX at MIN, Sep 26, 2026
3:10 PM CT · Target Field · lineup projected
Hitter · TEX · batting 5Brandon Nimmo
Bats leftTalent grade BPowerCold
.257wOBA vs RHP.271xwOBA vs his mix3.7expected PA
Starter · MINBailey Ober
Throws rightBTB Stuff 82Trending Up
4.4projected K18%K%2.0trips vs this hitter
Bailey Ober's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 32% usage, 87.5 mph, +5.6″ arm side, +15.1″ rise. Brandon Nimmo: wOBA .352 vs league .380 (pitcher's edge).Fastball 32%Changeup: 31% usage, 82.3 mph, +17.3″ arm side, +6.2″ rise. Brandon Nimmo: wOBA .269 vs league .296 (pitcher's edge).Changeup 31%Slider: 20% usage, 82.5 mph, -4.7″ arm side, +6.7″ rise. Brandon Nimmo: wOBA .335 vs league .362 (pitcher's edge).Slider 20%Sweeper: 14% usage, 75.7 mph, -12.6″ arm side, +1.9″ rise. Brandon Nimmo: wOBA .289 vs league .316 (pitcher's edge).Sweeper 14%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Brandon Nimmo's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Brandon Nimmo's last 40 balls in playHit (13)Out (27)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 91.3 mph at 73°Out: 100.6 mph at 37°Single: 100.8 mph at 5°Out: 92.3 mph at -21°Single: 70.3 mph at 33°Single: 99.9 mph at 14°Out: 67.2 mph at 5°Single: 88.3 mph at 15°Out: 78.4 mph at 35°Out: 91.2 mph at -7°Out: 93.2 mph at -20°Out: 89.2 mph at -10°Out: 62.9 mph at -35°Out: 84.9 mph at -35°Double: 105.3 mph at 8°Out: 88.4 mph at 47°Single: 106.3 mph at 12°Single: 75.9 mph at 36°Single: 102.5 mph at -3°Out: 80.8 mph at 44°Double: 100.1 mph at 10°Double: 92.3 mph at 26°Out: 97.3 mph at -17°Out: 100.3 mph at -6°Out: 66.0 mph at -13°Out: 73.2 mph at -8°Single: 106.5 mph at 3°Out: 60.7 mph at -34°Single: 104.5 mph at 10°Out: 86.0 mph at 30°Out: 99.9 mph at -9°Out: 74.6 mph at -19°Single: 96.3 mph at 12°Out: 104.9 mph at -30°Out: 95.1 mph at 19°Out: 102.4 mph at -6°Out: 96.0 mph at 39°Out: 75.3 mph at -38°Out: 97.8 mph at 45°Out: 97.4 mph at 22°
48% hit 95+ mph28% in the sweet spot33% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit62.3%60.0%+2.2
2+ total bases37.1%35.0%+2.2
Home run10.6%9.4%+1.2
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+2.7
Pitch mix
-0.7
Bullpen
-0.2
Park
+0.3
2+ total bases
Starter
+2.8
Pitch mix
-0.7
Bullpen
-0.2
Park
+0.2
Home run
Starter
+2.0
Pitch mix
-0.3
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
-0.5

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Pitch by pitch

Brandon Nimmo against each of Bailey Ober's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball32%87.5+6″ / +15″.352.38014.7%12.7%46About league average vs these
Changeup31%82.3+17″ / +6″.269.29622.8%25.3%14About league average vs these
Slider20%82.5-5″ / +7″.335.36224.7%21.5%13About league average vs these
Sweeper14%75.7-13″ / +2″.289.31624.6%21.3%10About league average vs these
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Brandon Nimmo · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G411.200.273.200.227.29236.4%9.1%30.0%87.8100.80.0%33.3%16.7%
Last 15 G1135.125.200.188.183.19742.9%8.6%35.8%90.2104.90.0%47.1%17.6%
Last 30 G2373.141.247.234.229.26331.5%11.0%27.6%91.9110.65.0%50.0%25.0%
90 days61184.170.255.273.243.27128.3%9.8%23.1%91.7110.64.5%49.1%30.4%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 112 balls in play
Ground 52%Line drive 21%Fly ball 20%Pop-up 7%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G49.286.444.286.356.34922.2%22.2%31.2%89.499.90.0%20.0%20.0%
Last 15 G1028.346.393.385.352.29525.0%7.1%35.7%89.3106.50.0%42.1%36.8%
Last 30 G2056.333.357.392.335.28221.4%5.4%29.0%91.7107.82.5%45.0%32.5%
90 days48114.390.421.552.440.35218.4%6.1%22.7%90.9108.14.7%45.9%38.8%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 85 balls in play
Ground 51%Line drive 22%Fly ball 24%Pop-up 4%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G520.235.350.235.285.31830.0%15.0%30.6%88.5100.80.0%27.3%18.2%
Last 15 G1563.224.286.276.258.24034.9%7.9%35.8%89.7106.50.0%44.4%27.8%
Last 30 G30129.226.295.304.275.27127.1%8.5%28.1%91.8110.63.8%47.5%28.8%
90 days72298.256.319.381.319.30224.5%8.4%23.0%91.3110.64.6%47.7%34.0%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 197 balls in play
Ground 51%Line drive 22%Fly ball 21%Pop-up 6%
Brandon Nimmo · percentile ranksvs 304 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormCold
Contact rating41Below average
Last 100 pitches12trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.317 / .307results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit7/12
2+ total bases4/12
Home run0/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 24LHPCutter90.891.373.000Out
Sep 23RHPSinker93.6100.637.521Out
Sep 23RHPSinker95.2100.85.593Single
Sep 23LHPSinker95.292.3-21.112Force out
Sep 22LHPSweeper77.370.333.717Single
Sep 22LHPFastball92.299.914.805Single
Sep 22RHPFastball98.267.25.194Out
Sep 19RHPSplitter89.788.315.917Single
Sep 19RHPSplitter91.678.435.067Out
Sep 18RHPChangeup79.491.2-7.220Double play
Sep 18LHPSinker86.393.2-20.114Out
Sep 17RHPSlider86.989.2-10.154Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 24300011
Sep 23411001
Sep 22422001
Sep 19411002
Sep 18500021
Sep 17400003
Sep 16412001
Sep 15411002
Sep 13422001
Sep 12524002

Two strikes

Bailey Ober MIN · RHPwith two strikes
Bailey Ober with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Changeup31%34%15.3%11.5%18.6%
Fastball32%26%10.7%8.8%18.0%
Sweeper14%22%41.7%25.4%19.3%
Slider20%16%17.2%18.0%21.0%
Sinker3%1%0.0%0.0%16.9%
Curveball1%0%–0.0%20.1%
Brandon Nimmo bats Lwith two strikes, vs this hand
Brandon Nimmo with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. About league average vs his two-strike stuff
With two strikesHimLeague
K%43.4%41.0%
Whiff%21.7%21.3%
Contact%78.3%78.7%
Chase%37.9%39.6%
wOBA.225.245
Whiff vs his put-away shapes18.6%18.3%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeBPower type
wOBA.323
K%24.2%
BB%8.1%
Whiff%11.8%
Barrel%3.4%
Hard-hit%31.5%
Avg EV91.2

Against right-handers, last 90 days

179 PA
wOBA.257
xwOBA vs this mix.271against pitches like his
RV/100-1.42
Hard-hit%29.4%
K%27.5%
BB%8.2%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Bailey OberRHP · MIN vs TEX
4.4projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 7 · 22.1 batters over 5.2 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 35.8%36%≤34 strikeouts: 19.0%19%45 strikeouts: 16.8%17%56 strikeouts: 12.4%12%67 strikeouts: 7.9%8%78 strikeouts: 4.4%4%89+ strikeouts: 3.7%4%9+book 4.5
Over 4.5: 45% (red bars) · under: 55%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%17.7%
BB%7.1%
Whiff%9.2%
Velo83.1
BTB Stuff82
Location109
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Fastball32%7787.56.3%
Changeup31%8382.28.9%
Slider20%8882.47.0%
Sweeper14%8875.619.9%
Sinker2%5988.40.0%
Curveball1%8672.611.1%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 1510111%7%41%.393
Sep 68429%13%24%.338
Aug 298025%5%15%.222

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Bailey Ober MIN · RHPvsTEX lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

5 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.6%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameTEX @ MIN →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Brandon Nimmo: every projection we've made →