MLBengine v14
← TEX at MIN, Sep 26, 2026
3:10 PM CT · Target Field · lineup projected
Hitter · MIN · batting 2Brooks Lee
Switch hitterTalent grade ——Normal
–wOBA vs RHP–xwOBA vs his mix3.9expected PA
Starter · TEXTBD
Stable
4.2projected K–K%2.2trips vs this hitter
Brooks Lee's last 40 balls in playHit (16)Out (24)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 90.7 mph at -13°Single: 70.1 mph at 34°Out: 96.9 mph at 35°Single: 82.4 mph at 10°Single: 82.4 mph at 21°Out: 88.2 mph at 21°Home run: 97.6 mph at 29°Out: 89.8 mph at -2°Out: 93.3 mph at 39°Out: 87.6 mph at 2°Single: 89.4 mph at 16°Single: 97.0 mph at 15°Single: 103.7 mph at 14°Out: 87.2 mph at 34°Double: 100.0 mph at 3°Out: 86.1 mph at 63°Out: 68.0 mph at -32°Out: 91.7 mph at 20°Out: 93.7 mph at 10°Single: 100.6 mph at 4°Single: 74.7 mph at 28°Out: 62.6 mph at 12°Out: 74.7 mph at -40°Single: 91.1 mph at 4°Out: 92.3 mph at 23°Single: 101.1 mph at 16°Out: 91.9 mph at 38°Out: 97.7 mph at 4°Single: 70.5 mph at 27°Out: 79.5 mph at 55°Out: 97.3 mph at -3°Out: 84.7 mph at -23°Single: 104.0 mph at 8°Out: 16.8 mph at 70°Out: 102.6 mph at -3°Out: 72.8 mph at 5°Single: 68.3 mph at 52°Single: 69.8 mph at 38°Out: 97.0 mph at 27°Out: 85.8 mph at 70°
30% hit 95+ mph40% in the sweet spot40% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit64.1%63.9%+0.2
2+ total bases38.1%38.1%+0.1
Home run9.8%10.5%-0.7
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
0.0
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
+0.3
2+ total bases
Starter
0.0
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
+0.2
Home run
Starter
0.0
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.2
Park
-0.5

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Brooks Lee · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G514.429.429.643.464.38614.3%0.0%21.2%88.197.60.0%16.7%58.3%
Last 15 G1439.378.410.486.422.37412.8%5.1%22.4%87.6104.03.1%28.1%46.9%
Last 30 G2982.333.354.577.408.37811.0%3.7%16.4%90.1106.25.7%41.4%42.9%
90 days68206.287.320.482.356.32310.7%4.9%16.0%89.2106.23.5%40.5%32.4%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 173 balls in play
Ground 40%Line drive 20%Fly ball 32%Pop-up 8%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G38.286.375.429.356.30212.5%12.5%25.0%90.9103.70.0%50.0%16.7%
Last 15 G1123.150.217.200.193.20330.4%4.3%32.6%83.4103.70.0%35.7%35.7%
Last 30 G2444.244.273.341.268.19425.0%2.3%21.8%87.5106.50.0%32.3%35.5%
90 days53101.226.277.301.262.20529.7%5.0%21.8%87.0106.50.0%31.7%33.3%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 63 balls in play
Ground 35%Line drive 21%Fly ball 25%Pop-up 19%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G522.381.409.571.425.35513.6%4.5%22.2%89.0103.70.0%27.8%44.4%
Last 15 G1562.298.339.386.336.30919.4%4.8%26.0%86.3104.02.2%30.4%43.5%
Last 30 G30126.303.325.496.359.31315.9%3.2%18.2%89.3106.54.0%38.6%40.6%
90 days74307.267.306.424.325.28416.9%4.9%17.9%88.6106.52.5%38.1%32.6%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 236 balls in play
Ground 39%Line drive 20%Fly ball 31%Pop-up 11%
Brooks Lee · percentile ranksvs 304 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormNormal
Contact rating31Below average
Last 100 pitches87trending up
wOBA / xwOBA.320 / .298running 22 points ahead of his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit10/12
2+ total bases7/12
Home run1/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 23LHPChangeup87.690.7-13.133Out
Sep 23RHPSlider86.870.134.697Single
Sep 23LHPFastball94.196.935.317Out
Sep 22RHPChangeup87.682.410.458Single
Sep 22RHPCurveball82.882.421.695Single
Sep 22RHPChangeup87.788.221.398Out
Sep 21RHPSlider87.697.629.654Home run
Sep 21RHPSweeper83.989.8-2.236Out
Sep 21RHPSweeper85.493.339.074Out
Sep 21RHPSinker92.987.62.242Out
Sep 20RHPCutter91.089.416.898Single
Sep 20RHPSweeper83.497.015.772Single
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 23511011
Sep 22422001
Sep 21414100
Sep 20433000
Sep 19512001
Sep 18422000
Sep 17522000
Sep 16311010
Sep 15300002
Sep 14511010

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent grade—— type
wOBA–
K%–
BB%–
Whiff%–
Barrel%–
Hard-hit%–
Avg EV–

Against right-handers, last 90 days

0 PA
wOBA–
xwOBA vs this mix–against pitches like his
RV/100–
Hard-hit%–
K%–
BB%–

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces

Starter not announced.

The rest of the gameTEX @ MIN →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Brooks Lee: every projection we've made →