MLBengine v14
← TEX at MIN, Sep 26, 2026
3:10 PM CT · Target Field · lineup projected
Hitter · TEX · batting 2Corey Seager
Bats leftTalent grade APowerCold
.323wOBA vs RHP.336xwOBA vs his mix3.9expected PA
Starter · MINBailey Ober
Throws rightBTB Stuff 82Trending Up
4.4projected K18%K%2.7trips vs this hitter
Bailey Ober's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 32% usage, 87.5 mph, +5.6″ arm side, +15.1″ rise. Corey Seager: wOBA .377 vs league .380 (about even).Fastball 32%Changeup: 31% usage, 82.3 mph, +17.3″ arm side, +6.2″ rise. Corey Seager: wOBA .292 vs league .296 (about even).Changeup 31%Slider: 20% usage, 82.5 mph, -4.7″ arm side, +6.7″ rise. Corey Seager: wOBA .359 vs league .362 (about even).Slider 20%Sweeper: 14% usage, 75.7 mph, -12.6″ arm side, +1.9″ rise. Corey Seager: wOBA .313 vs league .316 (about even).Sweeper 14%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Corey Seager's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Corey Seager's last 40 balls in playHit (11)Out (29)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 97.7 mph at 21°Home run: 107.5 mph at 24°Out: 95.6 mph at -15°Out: 79.2 mph at -31°Out: 70.8 mph at 46°Out: 95.9 mph at -15°Out: 89.2 mph at 6°Out: 83.0 mph at 5°Out: 92.5 mph at 32°Out: 82.2 mph at 72°Out: 104.0 mph at 4°Out: 74.5 mph at 13°Single: 103.4 mph at 9°Double: 107.2 mph at 22°Out: 105.6 mph at 16°Out: 89.6 mph at -20°Out: 94.1 mph at 36°Out: 86.8 mph at -5°Single: 100.1 mph at 11°Out: 92.9 mph at 29°Single: 78.4 mph at 18°Single: 67.2 mph at 45°Out: 83.1 mph at 53°Single: 108.8 mph at 1°Single: 106.3 mph at -5°Out: 85.8 mph at -14°Home run: 110.3 mph at 31°Out: 71.9 mph at -30°Single: 105.8 mph at -3°Double: 108.4 mph at 14°Out: 98.6 mph at -8°Out: 85.2 mph at 45°Out: 96.8 mph at -5°Out: 86.6 mph at -9°Out: 92.7 mph at -1°Out: 95.2 mph at -10°Out: 94.5 mph at 51°Out: 91.3 mph at -3°Out: 75.4 mph at -1°Out: 80.1 mph at -17°
43% hit 95+ mph30% in the sweet spot28% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit72.4%67.8%+4.6
2+ total bases51.0%45.6%+5.4
Home run22.6%18.4%+4.2
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+4.3
Pitch mix
+0.4
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
+0.1
2+ total bases
Starter
+5.3
Pitch mix
+0.4
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
-0.1
Home run
Starter
+4.9
Pitch mix
+0.3
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
-0.9

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Pitch by pitch

Corey Seager against each of Bailey Ober's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball32%87.5+6″ / +15″.377.38016.9%12.7%24About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Changeup31%82.3+17″ / +6″.292.29629.9%25.3%16About league average vs these
Slider20%82.5-5″ / +7″.359.36224.4%21.5%12About league average vs these
Sweeper14%75.7-13″ / +2″.313.31624.1%21.3%2Little history vs this shape
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Corey Seager · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G413.077.077.077.069.20730.8%0.0%25.0%91.1104.00.0%44.4%33.3%
Last 15 G1137.147.216.294.233.33218.9%8.1%26.0%94.0108.47.7%46.2%30.8%
Last 30 G2572.190.292.333.286.35919.4%12.5%27.9%93.2108.48.3%54.2%33.3%
90 days44124.236.323.391.328.34021.0%11.3%27.3%92.6108.49.6%54.2%34.9%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 83 balls in play
Ground 48%Line drive 23%Fly ball 22%Pop-up 7%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G38.125.125.500.250.31950.0%0.0%40.0%88.8107.525.0%50.0%50.0%
Last 15 G1130.310.333.621.403.34833.3%0.0%31.7%90.1110.315.8%36.8%42.1%
Last 30 G2461.286.328.554.386.37123.0%3.3%28.4%91.1110.316.3%44.2%48.8%
90 days3991.305.363.585.410.39523.1%6.6%29.4%92.2110.317.7%48.4%48.4%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 62 balls in play
Ground 36%Line drive 27%Fly ball 31%Pop-up 7%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G521.095.095.238.138.25038.1%0.0%30.8%90.4107.57.7%46.2%38.5%
Last 15 G1567.222.269.444.311.34025.4%4.5%28.5%92.4110.311.1%42.2%35.6%
Last 30 G30133.235.308.437.333.36521.1%8.3%28.1%92.2110.312.1%49.5%40.7%
90 days50215.266.340.474.363.36421.9%9.3%28.1%92.4110.313.1%51.7%40.7%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 145 balls in play
Ground 43%Line drive 25%Fly ball 26%Pop-up 7%
Corey Seager · percentile ranksvs 304 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormCold
Contact rating96Top tier
Last 100 pitches79trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.360 / .387running 27 points behind his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit8/12
2+ total bases5/12
Home run2/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 24LHPCurveball76.797.721.371Out
Sep 24LHPFastball96.5107.5241.915Home run
Sep 23RHPChangeup86.395.6-15.130Out
Sep 23LHPSinker94.279.2-31.035Out
Sep 22LHPSweeper76.370.846.231Out
Sep 20RHPSinker96.395.9-15.130Out
Sep 20RHPCurveball75.189.26.414Force out
Sep 20RHPCurveball88.083.05.257Double play
Sep 20RHPSinker96.492.532.178Out
Sep 20RHPSlider87.482.272.004Out
Sep 19RHPSplitter92.5104.04.519Out
Sep 19RHPSinker96.174.513.373Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 24414102
Sep 23400002
Sep 22400003
Sep 20500000
Sep 19411001
Sep 18512011
Sep 17411001
Sep 16511002
Sep 15422001
Sep 13536100

Two strikes

Bailey Ober MIN · RHPwith two strikes
Bailey Ober with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Changeup31%34%15.3%11.5%18.6%
Fastball32%26%10.7%8.8%18.0%
Sweeper14%22%41.7%25.4%19.3%
Slider20%16%17.2%18.0%21.0%
Sinker3%1%0.0%0.0%16.9%
Curveball1%0%–0.0%20.1%
Corey Seager bats Lwith two strikes, vs this hand
Corey Seager with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Little two-strike history vs these shapes
With two strikesHimLeague
K%39.7%41.0%
Whiff%20.3%21.3%
Contact%79.7%78.7%
Chase%34.6%39.6%
wOBA.243.245
Whiff vs his put-away shapes17.3%18.3%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeAPower type
wOBA.367
K%20.9%
BB%10.1%
Whiff%14.4%
Barrel%8.7%
Hard-hit%34.8%
Avg EV92.3

Against right-handers, last 90 days

119 PA
wOBA.323
xwOBA vs this mix.336against pitches like his
RV/100-0.33
Hard-hit%35.7%
K%19.9%
BB%9.0%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Bailey OberRHP · MIN vs TEX
4.4projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 7 · 22.1 batters over 5.2 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 35.8%36%≤34 strikeouts: 19.0%19%45 strikeouts: 16.8%17%56 strikeouts: 12.4%12%67 strikeouts: 7.9%8%78 strikeouts: 4.4%4%89+ strikeouts: 3.7%4%9+book 4.5
Over 4.5: 45% (red bars) · under: 55%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%17.7%
BB%7.1%
Whiff%9.2%
Velo83.1
BTB Stuff82
Location109
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Fastball32%7787.56.3%
Changeup31%8382.28.9%
Slider20%8882.47.0%
Sweeper14%8875.619.9%
Sinker2%5988.40.0%
Curveball1%8672.611.1%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 1510111%7%41%.393
Sep 68429%13%24%.338
Aug 298025%5%15%.222

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Bailey Ober MIN · RHPvsTEX lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

5 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.6%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameTEX @ MIN →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Corey Seager: every projection we've made →