MLBengine v14
← TEX at MIN, Sep 26, 2026
3:10 PM CT · Target Field · lineup projected
Hitter · TEX · batting 8Elias Díaz
Bats rightTalent grade FBalancedCold
.238wOBA vs RHP.229xwOBA vs his mix3.4expected PA
Starter · MINBailey Ober
Throws rightBTB Stuff 82Trending Up
4.4projected K18%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Bailey Ober's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 32% usage, 87.5 mph, +5.6″ arm side, +15.1″ rise. Elias Díaz: wOBA .347 vs league .368 (pitcher's edge).Fastball 32%Changeup: 31% usage, 82.3 mph, +17.3″ arm side, +6.2″ rise. Elias Díaz: wOBA .331 vs league .352 (pitcher's edge).Changeup 31%Slider: 20% usage, 82.5 mph, -4.7″ arm side, +6.7″ rise. Elias Díaz: wOBA .306 vs league .326 (pitcher's edge).Slider 20%Sweeper: 14% usage, 75.7 mph, -12.6″ arm side, +1.9″ rise. Elias Díaz: wOBA .286 vs league .306 (pitcher's edge).Sweeper 14%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Elias Díaz's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Elias Díaz's last 40 balls in playHit (13)Out (27)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 102.7 mph at -4°Out: 93.1 mph at -32°Out: 80.3 mph at -27°Out: 105.8 mph at 42°Out: 88.6 mph at 54°Out: 82.4 mph at 53°Out: 89.3 mph at 39°Single: 85.2 mph at -8°Out: 89.2 mph at 68°Double: 83.1 mph at 23°Out: 25.4 mph at -24°Out: 109.6 mph at 8°Single: 106.0 mph at -8°Single: 100.2 mph at 8°Single: 98.7 mph at 21°Out: 102.0 mph at 50°Out: 87.5 mph at 48°Single: 102.1 mph at -9°Out: 37.0 mph at -62°Out: 68.4 mph at 67°Out: 105.5 mph at -16°Out: 79.5 mph at 68°Home run: 103.4 mph at 22°Out: 97.4 mph at 23°Out: 105.7 mph at -29°Single: 99.3 mph at 14°Out: 73.0 mph at 5°Single: 79.9 mph at 20°Double: 107.1 mph at 17°Out: 104.8 mph at 21°Out: 92.2 mph at -5°Double: 97.8 mph at 26°Double: 93.7 mph at 27°Out: 73.7 mph at 56°Out: 79.5 mph at -4°Out: 94.8 mph at 45°Out: 84.4 mph at 69°Out: 94.6 mph at 22°Home run: 103.7 mph at 29°Out: 106.3 mph at 16°
45% hit 95+ mph38% in the sweet spot33% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit55.3%53.8%+1.4
2+ total bases29.6%28.8%+0.8
Home run8.8%8.9%-0.1
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+2.2
Pitch mix
-0.9
Bullpen
-0.2
Park
+0.3
2+ total bases
Starter
+1.7
Pitch mix
-0.9
Bullpen
-0.2
Park
+0.1
Home run
Starter
+0.7
Pitch mix
-0.4
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
-0.4

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Pitch by pitch

Elias Díaz against each of Bailey Ober's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball32%87.5+6″ / +15″.347.36818.3%16.2%18About league average vs these
Changeup31%82.3+17″ / +6″.331.35232.6%28.2%9About league average vs these
Slider20%82.5-5″ / +7″.306.32632.7%25.5%9About league average vs these
Sweeper14%75.7-13″ / +2″.286.30652.7%44.2%9About league average vs these
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Elias Díaz · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G47.000.143.000.100.11342.9%14.3%47.1%88.293.10.0%0.0%0.0%
Last 15 G1222.167.238.167.205.20831.8%9.1%34.0%87.7109.60.0%46.2%30.8%
Last 30 G2246.205.289.256.258.20730.4%8.7%33.0%88.7109.60.0%37.0%29.6%
90 days44102.176.232.242.223.21928.4%4.9%28.9%84.8109.61.5%36.4%30.3%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 66 balls in play
Ground 46%Line drive 14%Fly ball 24%Pop-up 17%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G410.222.200.333.381.30210.0%0.0%6.2%90.7105.80.0%28.6%14.3%
Last 15 G1228.269.259.462.368.30028.6%0.0%18.1%91.4107.116.7%50.0%33.3%
Last 30 G2551.213.220.383.285.33625.5%2.0%19.8%92.2109.220.0%54.3%40.0%
90 days4078.264.286.500.353.35721.8%3.8%21.2%90.7112.016.1%50.0%41.1%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 56 balls in play
Ground 36%Line drive 30%Fly ball 18%Pop-up 16%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G517.133.176.200.250.21323.5%5.9%20.4%90.0105.80.0%20.0%10.0%
Last 15 G1550.227.250.341.293.25830.0%4.0%24.4%89.8109.69.7%48.4%32.3%
Last 30 G3097.209.253.326.272.27327.8%5.2%25.9%90.7109.611.3%46.8%35.5%
90 days56180.215.256.356.279.27825.6%4.4%25.4%87.5112.08.2%42.6%35.2%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 122 balls in play
Ground 41%Line drive 21%Fly ball 21%Pop-up 16%
Elias Díaz · percentile ranksvs 304 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormCold
Contact rating19Poor
Last 100 pitches2trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.269 / .281results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit6/12
2+ total bases3/12
Home run1/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 24LHPSlider83.8102.7-4.302Out
Sep 24RHPSinker94.593.1-32.068Out
Sep 22LHPSweeper74.580.3-27.035Out
Sep 22LHPFastball92.4105.842.783Sac fly
Sep 22LHPFastball91.788.654.005Out
Sep 18RHPFastball95.182.453.010Out
Sep 16LHPSweeper80.589.339.000Out
Sep 16LHPFastball92.185.2-8.070Single
Sep 16RHPFastball93.089.268.012Out
Sep 15LHPSweeper79.983.123.319Double
Sep 13LHPChangeup80.725.4-24–Sac bunt
Sep 13RHPSlider86.5109.68.746Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 24300001
Sep 22300000
Sep 18400012
Sep 16511000
Sep 15212001
Sep 13400002
Sep 12433001
Sep 9300001
Sep 6411001
Sep 5100001

Two strikes

Bailey Ober MIN · RHPwith two strikes
Bailey Ober with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Changeup31%34%15.3%11.5%18.6%
Fastball32%26%10.7%8.8%18.0%
Sweeper14%22%41.7%25.4%19.3%
Slider20%16%17.2%18.0%21.0%
Sinker3%1%0.0%0.0%16.9%
Curveball1%0%–0.0%20.1%
Elias Díaz bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
Elias Díaz with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Little two-strike history vs these shapes
With two strikesHimLeague
K%45.0%42.4%
Whiff%23.8%22.2%
Contact%76.2%77.8%
Chase%37.7%39.8%
wOBA.229.238
Whiff vs his put-away shapes27.1%25.4%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeFBalanced type
wOBA.281
K%25.5%
BB%5.6%
Whiff%13.0%
Barrel%4.9%
Hard-hit%27.9%
Avg EV87.5

Against right-handers, last 90 days

102 PA
wOBA.238
xwOBA vs this mix.229against pitches like his
RV/100-1.91
Hard-hit%24.4%
K%27.6%
BB%4.6%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Bailey OberRHP · MIN vs TEX
4.4projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 7 · 22.1 batters over 5.2 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 35.8%36%≤34 strikeouts: 19.0%19%45 strikeouts: 16.8%17%56 strikeouts: 12.4%12%67 strikeouts: 7.9%8%78 strikeouts: 4.4%4%89+ strikeouts: 3.7%4%9+book 4.5
Over 4.5: 45% (red bars) · under: 55%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%17.7%
BB%7.1%
Whiff%9.2%
Velo83.1
BTB Stuff82
Location109
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Fastball32%7787.56.3%
Changeup31%8382.28.9%
Slider20%8882.47.0%
Sweeper14%8875.619.9%
Sinker2%5988.40.0%
Curveball1%8672.611.1%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 1510111%7%41%.393
Sep 68429%13%24%.338
Aug 298025%5%15%.222

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Bailey Ober MIN · RHPvsTEX lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

5 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.6%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameTEX @ MIN →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Elias Díaz: every projection we've made →