40% hit 95+ mph38% in the sweet spot33% fell for hits
| Market | BTB | Without the matchup | Matchup |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1+ hit | 64.8% | 64.6% | +0.1 |
| 2+ total bases | 41.8% | 42.0% | -0.1 |
| Home run | 14.1% | 15.0% | -0.9 |
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
0.0
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen-0.1
Park+0.2
2+ total bases
Starter
0.0
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen-0.2
Park+0.0
Home run
Starter
0.0
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen-0.3
Park-0.7
Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.
Statcast
opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonightJosh Bell · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
| Window | G | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | xwOBA | K% | BB% | Whiff% | Avg EV | Max EV | Barrel% | Hard-hit% | Sweet-spot% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 G | 5 | 12 | .333 | .333 | .333 | .300 | .329 | 16.7% | 0.0% | 13.6% | 92.0 | 103.8 | 10.0% | 40.0% | 50.0% |
| Last 15 G | 14 | 35 | .242 | .257 | .333 | .257 | .368 | 14.3% | 2.9% | 18.5% | 91.0 | 106.7 | 13.8% | 44.8% | 44.8% |
| Last 30 G | 28 | 83 | .250 | .313 | .389 | .307 | .392 | 14.5% | 7.2% | 16.2% | 91.0 | 113.7 | 11.1% | 44.4% | 38.1% |
| 90 days | 67 | 201 | .253 | .335 | .425 | .335 | .360 | 18.9% | 10.4% | 18.0% | 91.7 | 113.7 | 10.8% | 46.0% | 35.3% |
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 139 balls in play
Ground 52%Line drive 16%Fly ball 25%Pop-up 7%
| Window | G | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | xwOBA | K% | BB% | Whiff% | Avg EV | Max EV | Barrel% | Hard-hit% | Sweet-spot% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 G | 4 | 10 | .333 | .400 | .333 | .340 | .345 | 10.0% | 10.0% | 5.9% | 90.0 | 101.8 | 0.0% | 37.5% | 25.0% |
| Last 15 G | 12 | 29 | .192 | .276 | .308 | .266 | .295 | 24.1% | 10.3% | 22.4% | 85.7 | 104.6 | 5.3% | 36.8% | 36.8% |
| Last 30 G | 21 | 45 | .262 | .311 | .381 | .307 | .302 | 20.0% | 6.7% | 18.7% | 86.1 | 111.1 | 3.0% | 39.4% | 33.3% |
| 90 days | 49 | 100 | .295 | .330 | .474 | .349 | .329 | 14.0% | 5.0% | 15.9% | 87.7 | 111.1 | 7.4% | 35.8% | 34.6% |
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 81 balls in play
Ground 38%Line drive 20%Fly ball 28%Pop-up 14%
| Window | G | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | xwOBA | K% | BB% | Whiff% | Avg EV | Max EV | Barrel% | Hard-hit% | Sweet-spot% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 G | 5 | 22 | .333 | .364 | .333 | .318 | .336 | 13.6% | 4.5% | 10.3% | 91.1 | 103.8 | 5.6% | 38.9% | 38.9% |
| Last 15 G | 15 | 64 | .220 | .266 | .322 | .261 | .335 | 18.8% | 6.2% | 20.2% | 88.9 | 106.7 | 10.4% | 41.7% | 41.7% |
| Last 30 G | 30 | 128 | .254 | .312 | .386 | .307 | .360 | 16.4% | 7.0% | 17.0% | 89.3 | 113.7 | 8.3% | 42.7% | 36.5% |
| 90 days | 71 | 301 | .268 | .333 | .442 | .339 | .350 | 17.3% | 8.6% | 17.4% | 90.2 | 113.7 | 9.5% | 42.3% | 35.0% |
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 220 balls in play
Ground 47%Line drive 17%Fly ball 26%Pop-up 10%
xwOBA84.350
Avg EV7790.2
Max EV92113.7
Barrel%739.5%
Hard-hit%6742.3%
Sweet-spot%4735.0%
K%7617.3%
BB%528.6%
Whiff%7817.4%
Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.
FormNormal
Contact rating87Excellent
Last 100 pitches23trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.341 / .361running 19 points behind his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit8/12
2+ total bases4/12
Home run2/12
Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.
Recent contact
| Date | Pitcher | Pitch | Velo | EV | LA | xwOBA | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 23 | LHP | Changeup | 85.7 | 79.0 | -23 | .035 | Out |
| Sep 23 | LHP | Fastball | 93.5 | 82.3 | -25 | .046 | Out |
| Sep 23 | LHP | Changeup | 88.1 | 81.5 | -4 | .116 | Out |
| Sep 23 | LHP | Fastball | 95.2 | 81.4 | 18 | .916 | Single |
| Sep 23 | RHP | Sinker | 94.7 | 99.3 | -4 | .250 | Out |
| Sep 22 | RHP | Changeup | 86.5 | 87.7 | 44 | .008 | Out |
| Sep 22 | RHP | Fastball | 97.3 | 92.5 | 0 | .342 | Out |
| Sep 22 | RHP | Sinker | 95.6 | 99.3 | -5 | .232 | Double play |
| Sep 20 | RHP | Cutter | 89.4 | 89.4 | 20 | .475 | Single |
| Sep 20 | RHP | Sweeper | 82.7 | 76.6 | 30 | .187 | Single |
| Sep 20 | LHP | Sinker | 89.3 | 101.7 | -2 | .365 | Single |
| Sep 19 | LHP | Fastball | 94.7 | 101.8 | -7 | .299 | Out |
Total bases, last 10 games★ home run
| Date | PA | H | TB | HR | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 23 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sep 22 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Sep 20 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Sep 19 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Sep 18 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sep 17 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Sep 16 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Sep 15 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sep 14 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Sep 12 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
The hitter
season-level talent readTalent grade—— type
wOBA–
K%–
BB%–
Whiff%–
Barrel%–
Hard-hit%–
Avg EV–
Against right-handers, last 90 days
0 PAwOBA–
xwOBA vs this mix–against pitches like his
RV/100–
Hard-hit%–
K%–
BB%–
Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.
The starter he faces
Starter not announced.
The rest of the gameTEX @ MIN →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Josh Bell: every projection we've made →