MLBengine v14
← TEX at MIN, Sep 26, 2026
3:10 PM CT · Target Field · lineup projected
Hitter · MIN · batting 1Luke Keaschall
Bats rightTalent grade ——Normal
–wOBA vs RHP–xwOBA vs his mix4.0expected PA
Starter · TEXTBD
Stable
4.2projected K–K%2.7trips vs this hitter
Luke Keaschall's last 40 balls in playHit (14)Out (26)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 93.1 mph at 33°Home run: 102.6 mph at 25°Out: 45.8 mph at -71°Triple: 101.8 mph at 26°Out: 80.5 mph at 30°Out: 88.6 mph at 26°Out: 76.7 mph at 69°Out: 84.6 mph at 43°Out: 67.3 mph at -6°Out: 82.2 mph at 34°Out: 96.1 mph at 42°Double: 97.7 mph at 10°Out: 56.4 mph at -52°Out: 89.3 mph at 65°Single: 79.6 mph at 22°Out: 102.3 mph at 4°Out: 89.2 mph at 39°Out: 58.7 mph at -33°Single: 93.6 mph at 3°Out: 78.8 mph at -11°Out: 41.5 mph at -66°Out: 95.6 mph at 35°Single: 66.2 mph at 24°Single: 99.5 mph at 9°Single: 97.9 mph at 11°Out: 101.3 mph at 4°Single: 86.0 mph at 6°Out: 73.7 mph at 11°Single: 53.9 mph at -51°Single: 79.2 mph at -6°Out: 86.5 mph at -28°Out: 88.4 mph at 48°Out: 86.3 mph at 45°Single: 100.7 mph at 8°Out: 85.0 mph at 55°Single: 32.7 mph at -21°Single: 80.3 mph at 20°Out: 86.3 mph at -19°Out: 76.9 mph at -4°Out: 68.4 mph at 41°
25% hit 95+ mph30% in the sweet spot35% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit67.6%67.2%+0.3
2+ total bases37.3%37.0%+0.3
Home run8.5%8.9%-0.4
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
0.0
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.0
Park
+0.3
2+ total bases
Starter
0.0
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
+0.2
Home run
Starter
0.0
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.0
Park
-0.4

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Luke Keaschall · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G515.143.200.286.213.25420.0%0.0%14.8%82.7102.39.1%18.2%36.4%
Last 15 G1342.242.405.333.346.35211.9%14.3%16.2%81.7102.33.6%21.4%28.6%
Last 30 G2788.288.409.466.402.35711.4%9.1%14.6%85.5105.14.8%30.6%30.6%
90 days66204.299.414.488.409.34011.8%10.3%14.8%84.9107.34.2%31.9%33.3%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 144 balls in play
Ground 37%Line drive 16%Fly ball 37%Pop-up 10%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G26.400.3331.200.542.4170.0%0.0%16.7%87.4102.616.7%50.0%33.3%
Last 15 G1024.364.348.545.385.3184.2%0.0%17.4%83.2102.64.3%26.1%26.1%
Last 30 G2247.295.304.409.313.31810.6%2.1%16.5%86.6105.87.3%24.4%36.6%
90 days4997.326.385.430.382.34515.5%6.2%20.1%85.7105.84.1%24.7%42.5%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 73 balls in play
Ground 40%Line drive 22%Fly ball 33%Pop-up 6%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G521.211.238.526.307.30114.3%0.0%15.4%84.3102.611.8%29.4%35.3%
Last 15 G1566.291.385.418.360.3409.1%9.1%16.7%82.3102.63.9%23.5%27.5%
Last 30 G30135.291.373.444.371.34311.1%6.7%15.2%85.9105.85.8%28.2%33.0%
90 days72301.308.405.468.401.34213.0%9.0%16.6%85.2107.34.1%29.5%36.4%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 217 balls in play
Ground 38%Line drive 18%Fly ball 36%Pop-up 9%
Luke Keaschall · percentile ranksvs 304 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormNormal
Contact rating85Excellent
Last 100 pitches30trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.397 / .359running 38 points ahead of his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit9/12
2+ total bases6/12
Home run1/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 23LHPChangeup87.893.133.149Sac fly
Sep 23LHPSlider85.2102.6251.331Home run
Sep 23LHPChangeup86.845.8-71.272Out
Sep 22RHPFastball96.5101.8261.262Triple
Sep 22RHPFastball96.080.530.097Out
Sep 22RHPFastball92.888.626.065Out
Sep 22RHPSweeper84.076.769.000Out
Sep 21RHPSweeper85.084.643.010Out
Sep 21RHPSlider86.067.3-6.076Out
Sep 21RHPFastball95.282.234.038Out
Sep 19LHPCurveball72.696.142.023Out
Sep 19LHPFastball95.297.710.721Double
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 23414101
Sep 22413000
Sep 21400001
Sep 19512001
Sep 18411000
Sep 17511002
Sep 16633000
Sep 15433000
Sep 14500030
Sep 13422000

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent grade—— type
wOBA–
K%–
BB%–
Whiff%–
Barrel%–
Hard-hit%–
Avg EV–

Against right-handers, last 90 days

0 PA
wOBA–
xwOBA vs this mix–against pitches like his
RV/100–
Hard-hit%–
K%–
BB%–

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces

Starter not announced.

The rest of the gameTEX @ MIN →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Luke Keaschall: every projection we've made →