MLBengine v14
← ARI at SD, Sep 27, 2026
2:10 PM CT · Petco Park · lineup projected
Hitter · SD · batting 2Dustin Harris
Bats leftTalent grade FBalancedNormal
.347wOBA vs RHP.299xwOBA vs his mix3.9expected PA
Starter · ARIMichael Soroka
Throws rightBTB Stuff 90Trending Up
4.5projected K26%K%2.7trips vs this hitter
Michael Soroka's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 36% usage, 93.7 mph, +8.5″ arm side, +15.1″ rise. Dustin Harris: wOBA .356 vs league .357 (about even).Fastball 36%Sweeper: 23% usage, 80.6 mph, -11.9″ arm side, -8.3″ rise. Dustin Harris: wOBA .297 vs league .297 (about even).Sweeper 23%Sinker: 14% usage, 92.8 mph, +16.3″ arm side, +8.8″ rise. Dustin Harris: wOBA .359 vs league .359 (about even).Sinker 14%Changeup: 12% usage, 84.1 mph, +17.0″ arm side, +7.0″ rise. Dustin Harris: wOBA .310 vs league .310 (about even).Changeup 12%Slider: 11% usage, 82.4 mph, -4.8″ arm side, -3.2″ rise. Dustin Harris: wOBA .311 vs league .312 (about even).Slider 11%Cutter: 4% usage, 89.0 mph, -1.3″ arm side, +7.5″ rise. Dustin Harris: wOBA .349 vs league .349 (about even).Cutter 4%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Dustin Harris's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Dustin Harris's last 40 balls in playHit (14)Out (26)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 79.7 mph at 6°Out: 91.3 mph at 4°Single: 68.0 mph at 24°Out: 85.6 mph at 36°Out: 94.5 mph at -20°Out: 32.6 mph at -49°Out: 68.8 mph at 5°Out: 85.9 mph at -8°Out: 79.2 mph at -12°Out: 98.9 mph at -10°Out: 94.1 mph at 66°Single: 100.9 mph at 19°Out: 92.0 mph at 46°Out: 93.2 mph at 77°Out: 66.1 mph at 11°Double: 84.0 mph at 21°Out: 92.7 mph at 53°Out: 86.2 mph at -10°Single: 88.8 mph at 0°Single: 53.9 mph at -60°Out: 92.4 mph at 48°Out: 80.3 mph at 46°Single: 80.7 mph at 22°Single: 90.8 mph at 5°Single: 84.3 mph at 21°Triple: 98.5 mph at 29°Out: 99.2 mph at 20°Out: 89.1 mph at 1°Single: 94.9 mph at 12°Single: 62.6 mph at -15°Out: 77.4 mph at -3°Out: 96.1 mph at 11°Out: 68.9 mph at 60°Double: 105.6 mph at 17°Out: 50.6 mph at -19°Out: 66.1 mph at 1°Out: 45.6 mph at -71°Single: 97.5 mph at 17°Out: 99.0 mph at 18°Single: 93.9 mph at 2°
20% hit 95+ mph33% in the sweet spot35% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit62.4%63.1%-0.7
2+ total bases33.5%34.4%-1.0
Home run7.0%7.8%-0.8
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-0.4
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
-0.2
2+ total bases
Starter
-0.9
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.0
Park
-0.1
Home run
Starter
-1.3
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.0
Park
+0.4

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Dustin Harris hits
Where they meet

.295 xwOBA for Dustin Harris in the spots Michael Soroka throws to lefties

The average hitter in those same spots: .307 (-13 points). His best spot against righties is middle-left, and Michael Soroka puts 6% of his pitches there. Context only; the projection reads pitch type, not location.

Michael Soroka · where he throws to left-handed hitters
4% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 50% per swing4%2% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing2%3% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 25% per swing3%6% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 8% per swing6%7% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 13% per swing7%4% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing4%4% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 20% per swing4%5% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 11% per swing5%5% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 11% per swing5%14% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 17% per swing14%11% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 23% per swing11%11% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 15% per swing11%24% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 47% per swing24%
All · 276 pitches · catcher's view
8% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters8%4% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters4%4% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters4%5% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters5%13% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters13%7% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters7%2% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters2%2% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters2%5% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters5%18% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters18%18% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters18%2% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters2%12% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters12%
Fastball · 96 pitches · catcher's view
1% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters1%1% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters1%0% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters4% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters4%5% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters5%4% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters4%5% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters5%9% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters9%9% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters9%9% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters9%0% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters12% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters12%42% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters42%
Sweeper · 81 pitches · catcher's view
0% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters0% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters0% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters7% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters7%4% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters4%2% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters2%7% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters7%4% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters4%2% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters2%20% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters20%0% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters30% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters30%25% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters25%
Changeup · 56 pitches · catcher's view
0% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters3% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters3%16% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters16%0% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters3% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters3%3% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters3%0% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters0% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters0% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters13% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters13%42% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters42%0% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters19% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters19%
Cutter · 31 pitches · catcher's view

Share of his pitches in each spot; darker is more. Last 90 days.

Dustin Harris · hot and cold vs RHP
xwOBA .253 shrunk (raw .188 on 4 PA) · league .274 · 9 pitches seen.253xwOBA .301 shrunk (raw .292 on 8 PA) · league .307 · 17 pitches seen.301xwOBA .260 shrunk (raw .229 on 1 PA) · league .263 · 3 pitches seen.260xwOBA .386 shrunk (raw .473 on 6 PA) · league .342 · 21 pitches seen.386xwOBA .375 shrunk (raw .358 on 8 PA) · league .386 · 21 pitches seen.375xwOBA .310 shrunk (raw .296 on 9 PA) · league .321 · 15 pitches seen.310xwOBA .291 shrunk (raw .258 on 6 PA) · league .308 · 15 pitches seen.291xwOBA .327 shrunk (raw .290 on 8 PA) · league .351 · 14 pitches seen.327xwOBA .292 shrunk (raw .290 on 2 PA) · league .292 · 10 pitches seen.292xwOBA .350 shrunk (raw .309 on 8 PA) · league .377 · 38 pitches seen.350xwOBA .315 shrunk (raw .412 on 5 PA) · league .274 · 14 pitches seen.315xwOBA .290 shrunk (raw .343 on 6 PA) · league .263 · 46 pitches seen.290xwOBA .213 shrunk (raw .122 on 8 PA) · league .274 · 49 pitches seen.213
vs RHP · 272 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 0% of 6 swings · league 22%0%Whiff 0% of 15 swings · league 20%0%Whiff 0% of 2 swings · league 19%0%Whiff 9% of 11 swings · league 10%9%Whiff 19% of 16 swings · league 9%19%Whiff 0% of 13 swings · league 11%0%Whiff 30% of 10 swings · league 14%30%Whiff 13% of 8 swings · league 13%13%Whiff 67% of 6 swings · league 17%67%Whiff 0% of 11 swings · league 28%0%Whiff 20% of 5 swings · league 24%20%Whiff 25% of 16 swings · league 32%25%Whiff 48% of 23 swings · league 49%48%
vs RHP · 272 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 67% of 9 pitches · league 62%67%Swings at 88% of 17 pitches · league 72%88%Swings at 67% of 3 pitches · league 66%67%Swings at 52% of 21 pitches · league 70%52%Swings at 76% of 21 pitches · league 76%76%Swings at 87% of 15 pitches · league 70%87%Swings at 67% of 15 pitches · league 65%67%Swings at 57% of 14 pitches · league 68%57%Swings at 60% of 10 pitches · league 60%60%Swings at 29% of 38 pitches · league 24%29%Swings at 36% of 14 pitches · league 34%36%Swings at 35% of 46 pitches · league 40%35%Swings at 47% of 49 pitches · league 32%47%
vs RHP · 272 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Dustin Harris against each of Michael Soroka's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball36%93.7+9″ / +15″.356.35712.8%17.7%48About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Sweeper23%80.6-12″ / -8″.297.29727.4%28.0%13About league average vs these
Sinker14%92.8+16″ / +9″.359.3599.9%14.3%35About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Changeup12%84.1+17″ / +7″.310.31027.5%27.8%17About league average vs these
Slider11%82.4-5″ / -3″.311.31229.5%29.9%12About league average vs these
Cutter4%89.0-1″ / +8″.349.34915.7%21.8%19About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Dustin Harris · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G518.133.222.133.228.24616.7%5.6%7.7%82.3100.90.0%15.4%15.4%
Last 15 G1554.306.352.429.357.31611.1%5.6%17.0%82.6105.64.5%20.5%36.4%
Last 30 G2480.315.354.411.351.30012.5%5.0%19.7%82.7105.63.1%20.0%36.9%
90 days2480.315.354.411.351.30012.5%5.0%19.7%82.7105.63.1%20.0%36.9%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 65 balls in play
Ground 43%Line drive 28%Fly ball 20%Pop-up 9%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G22.000.500.000.350.4290.0%0.0%16.7%94.594.50.0%0.0%0.0%
Last 15 G79.167.333.167.256.26533.3%11.1%23.5%93.799.00.0%25.0%25.0%
Last 30 G810.286.400.286.320.32030.0%10.0%21.1%87.999.00.0%20.0%40.0%
90 days810.286.400.286.320.32030.0%10.0%21.1%87.999.00.0%20.0%40.0%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 5 balls in play
Ground 40%Line drive 20%Fly ball 20%Pop-up 20%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G520.125.250.125.240.26415.0%5.0%9.4%83.2100.90.0%14.3%14.3%
Last 15 G1563.291.349.400.343.30914.3%6.3%18.0%83.5105.64.2%20.8%35.4%
Last 30 G2490.312.360.400.348.30214.4%5.6%19.9%83.0105.62.9%20.0%37.1%
90 days2490.312.360.400.348.30214.4%5.6%19.9%83.0105.62.9%20.0%37.1%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 70 balls in play
Ground 43%Line drive 27%Fly ball 20%Pop-up 10%
Dustin Harris · percentile ranksvs 228 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormNormal
Contact rating34Below average
Last 100 pitches1trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.334 / .300running 34 points ahead of his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit9/12
2+ total bases5/12
Home run0/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25RHPChangeup85.179.76.314Out
Sep 25RHPCutter92.091.34.391Out
Sep 25RHPChangeup86.168.024.870Single
Sep 24RHPSlider89.685.636.015Sac fly
Sep 24LHPSlider87.894.5-20.129Out
Sep 23RHPCurveball76.432.6-49.287Fielder's choice
Sep 23RHPSweeper83.968.85.195Fielder's choice
Sep 23RHPSplitter90.885.9-8.100Force out
Sep 22RHPSinker97.079.2-12.076Out
Sep 22RHPChangeup87.698.9-10.251Force out
Sep 20RHPSinker96.794.166.008Out
Sep 20RHPSinker96.2100.919.468Single
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25411010
Sep 24400002
Sep 23500000
Sep 22300001
Sep 20411000
Sep 19512001
Sep 18522002
Sep 17533001
Sep 16524010
Sep 15211000

Two strikes

Michael Soroka ARI · RHPwith two strikes
Michael Soroka with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Sweeper32%50%39.5%31.3%20.7%
Fastball32%32%20.0%14.3%18.3%
Changeup13%10%11.1%7.7%18.4%
Sinker10%5%0.0%16.7%17.7%
Cutter14%3%66.7%50.0%18.7%
Other0%1%–0.0%17.9%
Dustin Harris bats Lwith two strikes, vs this hand
Dustin Harris with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. About league average vs his two-strike stuff
With two strikesHimLeague
K%40.3%41.3%
Whiff%20.0%21.6%
Contact%80.0%78.4%
Chase%46.4%39.4%
wOBA.247.246
Whiff vs his put-away shapes20.9%22.6%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeFBalanced type
wOBA.312
K%21.3%
BB%7.0%
Whiff%10.4%
Barrel%3.5%
Hard-hit%20.4%
Avg EV86.2

Against right-handers, last 90 days

80 PA
wOBA.347
xwOBA vs this mix.299against pitches like his
RV/1000.44
Hard-hit%17.2%
K%13.8%
BB%6.4%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Michael SorokaRHP · ARI vs SD
4.5projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 7 · 20.8 batters over 4.8 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 34.9%35%≤34 strikeouts: 19.0%19%45 strikeouts: 16.9%17%56 strikeouts: 12.6%13%67 strikeouts: 8.1%8%78 strikeouts: 4.5%5%89+ strikeouts: 4.0%4%9+book 4.5
Over 4.5: 46% (red bars) · under: 54%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%25.6%
BB%8.3%
Whiff%11.2%
Velo87.7
BTB Stuff90
Location101
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff%
Sweeper32%7480.718.0%
Fastball32%9993.29.4%
Cutter14%10889.09.4%
Changeup13%8685.88.3%
Sinker10%8993.12.1%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 229336%14%24%.258
Sep 158033%16%11%.200
Sep 95825%9%38%.281

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Michael Soroka ARI · RHPvsSD lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

0 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.8%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameARI @ SD →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Dustin Harris: every projection we've made →