The game
Game totals, win probability and the first inning are research only: in the backtest they don't beat the league-wide rate. Shown as projections, never as plays.
- Carry
- – vs neutral air
- Weather
- 73°F · Crosswind · roof open
- Park factor
- Runs 95 · HR 105 100 = average
- Schedule
- ARI day-after-night; SD day-after-night
Air density from observed temperature, dew point and pressure. It shapes batted balls, not the run total directly.
SD starter not announced yet.
| Date | Pitches | K% | Whiff% | Hard-hit% | wOBA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 22 | 93 | 36% | 14% | 24% | .258 |
| Sep 15 | 80 | 33% | 16% | 11% | .200 |
| Sep 9 | 58 | 25% | 9% | 38% | .281 |
Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.
0 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight
Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.8%. Red strikes out more, blue less.
Pitch-mix battles
each lineup against the starter it faces| Michael Soroka's pitches | SD lineup vs that pitch | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pitch | Usage | Velo | BTB Stuff | Whiff% | RV/100 | wOBA | Whiff% | Hard-hit% | Edge |
| Sweeper | 32% | 80.7 | 74 | 18.0% | 1.49 | .289 | 14.0% | 18.1% | -1.12 |
| Fastball | 32% | 93.2 | 99 | 9.4% | 0.56 | .381 | 8.7% | 32.5% | +1.12 |
| Cutter | 14% | 89.0 | 108 | 9.4% | 1.25 | .350 | 10.0% | 30.0% | +0.03 |
| Changeup | 13% | 85.8 | 86 | 8.3% | -2.58 | .276 | 14.9% | 20.8% | -0.01 |
| Sinker | 10% | 93.1 | 89 | 2.1% | 2.40 | .379 | 5.4% | 32.0% | +0.19 |
Bullpens
No one pitched yesterday.
Ranked on a blend of K-BB% (60%) and wOBA allowed (40%) over the bullpen window. Tired arms are context: in our tests bullpen rest didn't improve run totals.
No one pitched yesterday.
Ranked on a blend of K-BB% (60%) and wOBA allowed (40%) over the bullpen window. Tired arms are context: in our tests bullpen rest didn't improve run totals.
Two strikes
how each starter finishes hitters| Pitch | Overall | 2 strikes | Whiff% | Put-away | League put-away |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sweeper | 32% | 50% | 39.5% | 31.3% | 20.7% |
| Fastball | 32% | 32% | 20.0% | 14.3% | 18.3% |
| Changeup | 13% | 10% | 11.1% | 7.7% | 18.4% |
| Sinker | 10% | 5% | 0.0% | 16.7% | 17.7% |
| Cutter | 14% | 3% | 66.7% | 50.0% | 18.7% |
| Other | 0% | 1% | – | 0.0% | 17.9% |
Diamondbacks lineup
Projected · facing TBD| Spot | Hitter | 1+ hit | 2+ TB | HR | PA | Matchup (1+ hit) | wOBA vs hand | Talent grade | Type | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lars Nootbaar LF · bats L | 58.4% | 35.8% | 12.2% | 4.0 | -0.1 | – | — | — | Normal |
| 2 | Ketel Marte 2B · bats S | 62.1% | 38.6% | 12.5% | 3.9 | -0.1 | – | — | — | Normal |
| 3 | Gabriel Moreno C · bats R | 68.0% | 40.8% | 11.8% | 3.8 | -0.1 | – | — | — | Normal |
| 4 | Geraldo Perdomo SS · bats S | 62.4% | 33.7% | 6.3% | 3.8 | -0.2 | – | — | — | Normal |
| 5 | Corbin Carroll RF · bats L | 57.6% | 36.0% | 15.0% | 3.7 | -0.0 | – | — | — | Normal |
| 6 | Nolan Arenado 3B · bats R | 59.7% | 35.2% | 13.9% | 3.6 | +0.0 | – | — | — | Normal |
| 7 | Tim Tawa LF · bats R | 58.1% | 34.6% | 13.6% | 3.5 | +0.0 | – | — | — | Normal |
| 8 | Pavin Smith DH · bats L | 52.1% | 29.3% | 10.5% | 3.4 | -0.1 | – | — | — | Normal |
| 9 | Jordan Lawlar CF · bats R | 51.2% | 28.1% | 10.5% | 3.3 | -0.0 | – | — | — | Normal |
Padres lineup
Projected · facing Michael Soroka RHP| Spot | Hitter | 1+ hit | 2+ TB | HR | PA | Matchup (1+ hit) | wOBA vs hand | Talent grade | Type | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fernando Tatis Jr. 2B · bats R | 67.4% | 43.9% | 20.0% | 4.0 | -1.0 | .400 | A | Power | Normal |
| 2 | Dustin Harris RF · bats L | 62.4% | 33.5% | 7.0% | 3.9 | -0.7 | .347 | F | Balanced | Normal |
| 3 | Manny Machado DH · bats R | 60.7% | 38.5% | 14.9% | 3.8 | -0.4 | .351 | B | Balanced | Cold |
| 4 | Ty France 1B · bats R | 63.0% | 38.0% | 11.4% | 3.8 | -0.5 | .395 | A | Power | Cold |
| 5 | Jackson Merrill CF · bats L | 66.5% | 45.0% | 19.3% | 3.7 | -1.2 | .388 | A | Power | Normal |
| 6 | Xander Bogaerts SS · bats R | 58.6% | 32.2% | 9.1% | 3.6 | -0.3 | .309 | B | Power | Hot |
| 7 | Luis Campusano C · bats R | 52.7% | 28.2% | 9.0% | 3.5 | -0.6 | .332 | D | Balanced | Cold |
| 8 | Jake Cronenworth 3B · bats L | 53.3% | 26.3% | 7.5% | 3.4 | +0.3 | .308 | F | Balanced | Hot |
| 9 | Samad Taylor 2B · bats R | 50.2% | 23.9% | 6.3% | 3.3 | -2.1 | .359 | F | Balanced | Hot |