MLBengine v14
← ARI at SD, Sep 27, 2026
2:10 PM CT · Petco Park · lineup projected
Hitter · SD · batting 8Jake Cronenworth
Bats leftTalent grade FBalancedHot
.308wOBA vs RHP.268xwOBA vs his mix3.4expected PA
Starter · ARIMichael Soroka
Throws rightBTB Stuff 90Trending Up
4.5projected K26%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Michael Soroka's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 36% usage, 93.7 mph, +8.5″ arm side, +15.1″ rise. Jake Cronenworth: wOBA .360 vs league .357 (about even).Fastball 36%Sweeper: 23% usage, 80.6 mph, -11.9″ arm side, -8.3″ rise. Jake Cronenworth: wOBA .302 vs league .297 (about even).Sweeper 23%Sinker: 14% usage, 92.8 mph, +16.3″ arm side, +8.8″ rise. Jake Cronenworth: wOBA .362 vs league .359 (about even).Sinker 14%Changeup: 12% usage, 84.1 mph, +17.0″ arm side, +7.0″ rise. Jake Cronenworth: wOBA .315 vs league .310 (about even).Changeup 12%Slider: 11% usage, 82.4 mph, -4.8″ arm side, -3.2″ rise. Jake Cronenworth: wOBA .317 vs league .312 (about even).Slider 11%Cutter: 4% usage, 89.0 mph, -1.3″ arm side, +7.5″ rise. Jake Cronenworth: wOBA .352 vs league .349 (about even).Cutter 4%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Jake Cronenworth's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Jake Cronenworth's last 40 balls in playHit (16)Out (24)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 81.1 mph at -14°Single: 97.1 mph at -10°Out: 90.8 mph at 25°Out: 80.9 mph at 65°Out: 88.6 mph at 22°Out: 88.5 mph at 18°Out: 83.6 mph at -18°Out: 81.5 mph at 82°Double: 92.2 mph at 18°Home run: 100.5 mph at 29°Home run: 99.1 mph at 45°Single: 100.4 mph at 2°Out: 95.7 mph at -14°Out: 59.8 mph at -8°Out: 75.4 mph at -6°Single: 90.4 mph at 11°Single: 95.7 mph at 1°Out: 99.7 mph at 5°Single: 65.3 mph at 37°Triple: 102.2 mph at 25°Out: 69.9 mph at 76°Out: 92.8 mph at -20°Single: 64.2 mph at 13°Out: 64.9 mph at -35°Single: 105.7 mph at 24°Out: 87.0 mph at 39°Out: 90.7 mph at 47°Out: 91.6 mph at 4°Single: 101.3 mph at -8°Single: 97.8 mph at -14°Single: 87.8 mph at -8°Single: 103.6 mph at 0°Out: 95.3 mph at 32°Single: 31.4 mph at -3°Out: 91.2 mph at 65°Out: 75.6 mph at -2°Out: 82.7 mph at 12°Out: 30.6 mph at -1°Out: 78.8 mph at 37°Out: 79.6 mph at -31°
33% hit 95+ mph28% in the sweet spot40% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit53.3%53.0%+0.3
2+ total bases26.3%25.4%+0.9
Home run7.5%5.9%+1.6
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+0.5
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
-0.1
2+ total bases
Starter
+0.9
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
+0.1
Home run
Starter
+1.1
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.0
Park
+0.5

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Jake Cronenworth hits
Where they meet

.286 xwOBA for Jake Cronenworth in the spots Michael Soroka throws to lefties

The average hitter in those same spots: .307 (-22 points). His best spot against righties is up and right, outside, and Michael Soroka puts 11% of his pitches there. Context only; the projection reads pitch type, not location.

Michael Soroka · where he throws to left-handed hitters
4% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 50% per swing4%2% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing2%3% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 25% per swing3%6% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 8% per swing6%7% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 13% per swing7%4% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing4%4% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 20% per swing4%5% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 11% per swing5%5% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 11% per swing5%14% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 17% per swing14%11% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 23% per swing11%11% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 15% per swing11%24% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 47% per swing24%
All · 276 pitches · catcher's view
8% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters8%4% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters4%4% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters4%5% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters5%13% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters13%7% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters7%2% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters2%2% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters2%5% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters5%18% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters18%18% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters18%2% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters2%12% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters12%
Fastball · 96 pitches · catcher's view
1% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters1%1% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters1%0% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters4% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters4%5% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters5%4% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters4%5% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters5%9% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters9%9% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters9%9% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters9%0% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters12% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters12%42% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters42%
Sweeper · 81 pitches · catcher's view
0% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters0% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters0% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters7% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters7%4% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters4%2% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters2%7% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters7%4% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters4%2% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters2%20% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters20%0% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters30% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters30%25% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters25%
Changeup · 56 pitches · catcher's view
0% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters3% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters3%16% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters16%0% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters3% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters3%3% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters3%0% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters0% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters0% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters13% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters13%42% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters42%0% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters19% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters19%
Cutter · 31 pitches · catcher's view

Share of his pitches in each spot; darker is more. Last 90 days.

Jake Cronenworth · hot and cold vs RHP
xwOBA .291 shrunk (raw .306 on 14 PA) · league .274 · 52 pitches seen.291xwOBA .199 shrunk (raw .081 on 11 PA) · league .307 · 40 pitches seen.199xwOBA .189 shrunk (raw .109 on 11 PA) · league .263 · 35 pitches seen.189xwOBA .297 shrunk (raw .272 on 22 PA) · league .342 · 67 pitches seen.297xwOBA .406 shrunk (raw .417 on 23 PA) · league .386 · 56 pitches seen.406xwOBA .270 shrunk (raw .232 on 16 PA) · league .321 · 34 pitches seen.270xwOBA .322 shrunk (raw .331 on 19 PA) · league .308 · 45 pitches seen.322xwOBA .308 shrunk (raw .282 on 20 PA) · league .351 · 66 pitches seen.308xwOBA .263 shrunk (raw .244 on 18 PA) · league .292 · 52 pitches seen.263xwOBA .348 shrunk (raw .314 on 10 PA) · league .377 · 125 pitches seen.348xwOBA .301 shrunk (raw .367 on 5 PA) · league .274 · 54 pitches seen.301xwOBA .236 shrunk (raw .228 on 39 PA) · league .263 · 126 pitches seen.236xwOBA .245 shrunk (raw .229 on 21 PA) · league .274 · 171 pitches seen.245
vs RHP · 923 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 15% of 33 swings · league 22%15%Whiff 24% of 25 swings · league 20%24%Whiff 12% of 17 swings · league 19%12%Whiff 2% of 43 swings · league 10%2%Whiff 9% of 35 swings · league 9%9%Whiff 5% of 22 swings · league 11%5%Whiff 0% of 31 swings · league 14%0%Whiff 10% of 41 swings · league 13%10%Whiff 23% of 31 swings · league 17%23%Whiff 43% of 7 swings · league 28%43%Whiff 23% of 13 swings · league 24%23%Whiff 40% of 65 swings · league 32%40%Whiff 40% of 62 swings · league 49%40%
vs RHP · 923 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 64% of 52 pitches · league 62%64%Swings at 63% of 40 pitches · league 72%63%Swings at 49% of 35 pitches · league 66%49%Swings at 64% of 67 pitches · league 70%64%Swings at 63% of 56 pitches · league 76%63%Swings at 65% of 34 pitches · league 70%65%Swings at 69% of 45 pitches · league 65%69%Swings at 62% of 66 pitches · league 68%62%Swings at 60% of 52 pitches · league 60%60%Swings at 6% of 125 pitches · league 24%6%Swings at 24% of 54 pitches · league 34%24%Swings at 52% of 126 pitches · league 40%52%Swings at 36% of 171 pitches · league 32%36%
vs RHP · 923 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Jake Cronenworth against each of Michael Soroka's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball36%93.7+9″ / +15″.360.3578.4%17.7%700About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Sweeper23%80.6-12″ / -8″.302.29725.5%28.0%108About league average vs these
Sinker14%92.8+16″ / +9″.362.3597.7%14.3%535About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Changeup12%84.1+17″ / +7″.315.31022.8%27.8%243About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Slider11%82.4-5″ / -3″.317.31226.6%29.9%184About league average vs these
Cutter4%89.0-1″ / +8″.352.34913.5%21.8%336About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Jake Cronenworth · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G515.267.267.733.410.16440.0%0.0%22.2%90.2100.511.1%33.3%44.4%
Last 15 G1550.267.327.467.348.26826.0%6.0%17.4%84.3107.69.1%30.3%27.3%
Last 30 G2997.225.281.404.310.24427.8%6.2%19.5%85.0107.64.8%25.4%31.7%
90 days72232.242.304.360.307.26525.9%7.8%20.2%86.2108.93.9%30.3%34.2%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 152 balls in play
Ground 43%Line drive 22%Fly ball 26%Pop-up 9%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G22.000.000.000.000.4060.0%0.0%33.3%86.088.50.0%0.0%50.0%
Last 15 G611.455.455.455.409.2840.0%0.0%5.9%86.1103.60.0%36.4%27.3%
Last 30 G1424.217.250.217.217.18612.5%4.2%4.9%82.9103.60.0%25.0%15.0%
90 days3872.277.338.354.320.24016.7%5.6%12.9%80.2103.60.0%20.8%26.4%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 53 balls in play
Ground 47%Line drive 23%Fly ball 19%Pop-up 11%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G517.235.235.647.362.19235.3%0.0%23.3%89.4100.59.1%27.3%45.5%
Last 15 G1561.304.350.464.359.27121.3%4.9%15.5%84.8107.66.8%31.8%27.3%
Last 30 G30121.223.275.366.291.23224.8%5.8%16.9%84.5107.63.6%25.3%27.7%
90 days75304.250.312.359.310.25923.7%7.2%18.4%84.7108.92.9%27.8%32.2%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 205 balls in play
Ground 44%Line drive 22%Fly ball 24%Pop-up 9%
Jake Cronenworth · percentile ranksvs 228 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormHot
Contact rating11Poor
Last 100 pitches10steady
wOBA / xwOBA.305 / .264running 41 points ahead of his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit9/12
2+ total bases5/12
Home run1/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25RHPChangeup84.881.1-14.081Force out
Sep 25RHPSinker94.497.1-10.222Single
Sep 25RHPChangeup87.390.825.165Out
Sep 23RHPCurveball75.380.965.005Out
Sep 23RHPSinker95.488.622.234Out
Sep 23LHPSlider88.388.518.741Out
Sep 22LHPSlider88.883.6-18.072Out
Sep 22RHPChangeup88.681.582.008Out
Sep 20RHPFastball98.792.218.560Double
Sep 20RHPSlider87.0100.5291.134Home run
Sep 20RHPCurveball80.599.145.045Home run
Sep 19RHPChangeup90.0100.42.432Single
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25411001
Sep 24200002
Sep 23400001
Sep 22300001
Sep 204310201
Sep 19511011
Sep 18422000
Sep 17524000
Sep 16522002
Sep 15411000

Two strikes

Michael Soroka ARI · RHPwith two strikes
Michael Soroka with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Sweeper32%50%39.5%31.3%20.7%
Fastball32%32%20.0%14.3%18.3%
Changeup13%10%11.1%7.7%18.4%
Sinker10%5%0.0%16.7%17.7%
Cutter14%3%66.7%50.0%18.7%
Other0%1%–0.0%17.9%
Jake Cronenworth bats Lwith two strikes, vs this hand
Jake Cronenworth with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Makes contact on his two-strike stuff more than most
With two strikesHimLeague
K%35.4%41.3%
Whiff%16.6%21.6%
Contact%83.4%78.4%
Chase%36.1%39.4%
wOBA.253.246
Whiff vs his put-away shapes17.1%22.6%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeFBalanced type
wOBA.321
K%23.4%
BB%7.9%
Whiff%8.9%
Barrel%2.4%
Hard-hit%19.6%
Avg EV85.1

Against right-handers, last 90 days

232 PA
wOBA.308
xwOBA vs this mix.268against pitches like his
RV/100-0.22
Hard-hit%20.3%
K%25.3%
BB%7.3%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Michael SorokaRHP · ARI vs SD
4.5projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 7 · 20.8 batters over 4.8 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 34.9%35%≤34 strikeouts: 19.0%19%45 strikeouts: 16.9%17%56 strikeouts: 12.6%13%67 strikeouts: 8.1%8%78 strikeouts: 4.5%5%89+ strikeouts: 4.0%4%9+book 4.5
Over 4.5: 46% (red bars) · under: 54%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%25.6%
BB%8.3%
Whiff%11.2%
Velo87.7
BTB Stuff90
Location101
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff%
Sweeper32%7480.718.0%
Fastball32%9993.29.4%
Cutter14%10889.09.4%
Changeup13%8685.88.3%
Sinker10%8993.12.1%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 229336%14%24%.258
Sep 158033%16%11%.200
Sep 95825%9%38%.281

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Michael Soroka ARI · RHPvsSD lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

0 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.8%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameARI @ SD →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Jake Cronenworth: every projection we've made →