← ARI at SD, Sep 27, 2026
2:10 PM CT · Petco Park · lineup projected
Hitter · ARI · batting 9Jordan Lawlar
Bats rightTalent grade ——Normal
–wOBA vs RHP–xwOBA vs his mix3.3expected PA
Starter · SDTBD
Stable
4.4projected K–K%1.9trips vs this hitter
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit51.2%51.2%-0.0
2+ total bases28.1%28.0%+0.2
Home run10.5%10.0%+0.5
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
0.0
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
-0.2
2+ total bases
Starter
0.0
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
+0.0
Home run
Starter
0.0
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
+0.4

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight

No pitch-level data for this hitter in the current window.

FormNormal
Contact rating32Below average
Last 100 pitches18trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.315 / .298running 17 points ahead of his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit8/12
2+ total bases7/12
Home run2/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent grade—— type
wOBA–
K%–
BB%–
Whiff%–
Barrel%–
Hard-hit%–
Avg EV–

Against right-handers, last 90 days

0 PA
wOBA–
xwOBA vs this mix–against pitches like his
RV/100–
Hard-hit%–
K%–
BB%–

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces

Starter not announced.

The rest of the gameARI @ SD →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Jordan Lawlar: every projection we've made →