MLBengine v14
← ARI at SD, Sep 27, 2026
2:10 PM CT · Petco Park · lineup projected
Hitter · SD · batting 9Samad Taylor
Bats rightTalent grade FBalancedHot
.359wOBA vs RHP.334xwOBA vs his mix3.3expected PA
Starter · ARIMichael Soroka
Throws rightBTB Stuff 90Trending Up
4.5projected K26%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Michael Soroka's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 36% usage, 93.7 mph, +8.5″ arm side, +15.1″ rise. Samad Taylor: wOBA .348 vs league .343 (about even).Fastball 36%Sweeper: 23% usage, 80.6 mph, -11.9″ arm side, -8.3″ rise. Samad Taylor: wOBA .291 vs league .287 (about even).Sweeper 23%Sinker: 14% usage, 92.8 mph, +16.3″ arm side, +8.8″ rise. Samad Taylor: wOBA .354 vs league .349 (about even).Sinker 14%Changeup: 12% usage, 84.1 mph, +17.0″ arm side, +7.0″ rise. Samad Taylor: wOBA .352 vs league .348 (about even).Changeup 12%Slider: 11% usage, 82.4 mph, -4.8″ arm side, -3.2″ rise. Samad Taylor: wOBA .302 vs league .297 (about even).Slider 11%Cutter: 4% usage, 89.0 mph, -1.3″ arm side, +7.5″ rise. Samad Taylor: wOBA .317 vs league .312 (about even).Cutter 4%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Samad Taylor's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit50.2%52.3%-2.1
2+ total bases23.9%26.3%-2.4
Home run6.3%8.1%-1.8
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-1.8
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
-0.2
2+ total bases
Starter
-2.2
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
0.0
Home run
Starter
-2.2
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
+0.4

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Samad Taylor hits
Michael Soroka · where he throws to right-handed hitters
6% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 22% per swing6%5% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing5%3% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing3%4% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 17% per swing4%6% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing6%9% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing9%2% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing2%5% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 33% per swing5%5% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing5%10% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 50% per swing10%9% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 33% per swing9%5% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing5%32% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 63% per swing32%
All · 196 pitches · catcher's view
1% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters1%1% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters1%1% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters1%1% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters1%4% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters4%6% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters6%1% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters1%7% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters7%10% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters10%4% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters4%3% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters3%1% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters1%56% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters56%
Sweeper · 69 pitches · catcher's view
17% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters17%8% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters8%8% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters8%0% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters9% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters9%11% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters11%0% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters0% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters0% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters17% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters17%17% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters17%0% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters13% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters13%
Fastball · 53 pitches · catcher's view
3% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters3%3% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters3%0% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters14% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters14%8% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters8%3% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters3%5% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters5%14% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters14%5% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters5%11% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters11%0% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters22% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters22%14% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters14%
Sinker · 37 pitches · catcher's view
0% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters9% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters9%3% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters3%6% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters6%3% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters3%18% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters18%0% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters0% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters0% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters12% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters12%18% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters18%0% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters30% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters30%
Cutter · 33 pitches · catcher's view

Share of his pitches in each spot; darker is more. Last 90 days.

Pitch by pitch

Samad Taylor against each of Michael Soroka's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball36%93.7+9″ / +15″.348.34320.4%19.8%38About league average vs these
Sweeper23%80.6-12″ / -8″.291.28732.3%29.9%10About league average vs these
Sinker14%92.8+16″ / +9″.354.34912.4%11.5%47About league average vs these
Changeup12%84.1+17″ / +7″.352.34824.6%23.3%22About league average vs these
Slider11%82.4-5″ / -3″.302.29734.4%32.0%16About league average vs these
Cutter4%89.0-1″ / +8″.317.31229.9%28.5%23About league average vs these
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight

No pitch-level data for this hitter in the current window.

FormHot
Contact rating43Below average
Last 100 pitches51trending up
wOBA / xwOBA.354 / .309running 45 points ahead of his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit7/12
2+ total bases5/12
Home run1/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Two strikes

Michael Soroka ARI · RHPwith two strikes
Michael Soroka with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Sweeper32%50%39.5%31.3%20.7%
Fastball32%32%20.0%14.3%18.3%
Changeup13%10%11.1%7.7%18.4%
Sinker10%5%0.0%16.7%17.7%
Cutter14%3%66.7%50.0%18.7%
Other0%1%–0.0%17.9%
Samad Taylor bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
Samad Taylor with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. About league average vs his two-strike stuff
With two strikesHimLeague
K%43.4%43.3%
Whiff%22.9%23.5%
Contact%77.1%76.5%
Chase%42.0%39.4%
wOBA.243.235
Whiff vs his put-away shapes22.8%23.3%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeFBalanced type
wOBA.308
K%22.0%
BB%7.5%
Whiff%10.6%
Barrel%4.0%
Hard-hit%21.3%
Avg EV83.4

Against right-handers, last 90 days

58 PA
wOBA.359
xwOBA vs this mix.334against pitches like his
RV/1000.50
Hard-hit%19.8%
K%21.6%
BB%8.5%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Michael SorokaRHP · ARI vs SD
4.5projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 7 · 20.8 batters over 4.8 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 34.9%35%≤34 strikeouts: 19.0%19%45 strikeouts: 16.9%17%56 strikeouts: 12.6%13%67 strikeouts: 8.1%8%78 strikeouts: 4.5%5%89+ strikeouts: 4.0%4%9+book 4.5
Over 4.5: 46% (red bars) · under: 54%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%25.6%
BB%8.3%
Whiff%11.2%
Velo87.7
BTB Stuff90
Location101
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff%
Sweeper32%7480.718.0%
Fastball32%9993.29.4%
Cutter14%10889.09.4%
Changeup13%8685.88.3%
Sinker10%8993.12.1%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 229336%14%24%.258
Sep 158033%16%11%.200
Sep 95825%9%38%.281

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Michael Soroka ARI · RHPvsSD lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

0 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.8%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameARI @ SD →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Samad Taylor: every projection we've made →