MLBengine v14
← ARI at SD, Sep 27, 2026
2:10 PM CT · Petco Park · lineup projected
Hitter · SD · batting 4Ty France
Bats rightTalent grade APowerCold
.395wOBA vs RHP.329xwOBA vs his mix3.8expected PA
Starter · ARIMichael Soroka
Throws rightBTB Stuff 90Trending Up
4.5projected K26%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Michael Soroka's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 36% usage, 93.7 mph, +8.5″ arm side, +15.1″ rise. Ty France: wOBA .361 vs league .343 (hitter's edge).Fastball 36%Sweeper: 23% usage, 80.6 mph, -11.9″ arm side, -8.3″ rise. Ty France: wOBA .306 vs league .287 (hitter's edge).Sweeper 23%Sinker: 14% usage, 92.8 mph, +16.3″ arm side, +8.8″ rise. Ty France: wOBA .367 vs league .349 (hitter's edge).Sinker 14%Changeup: 12% usage, 84.1 mph, +17.0″ arm side, +7.0″ rise. Ty France: wOBA .367 vs league .348 (hitter's edge).Changeup 12%Slider: 11% usage, 82.4 mph, -4.8″ arm side, -3.2″ rise. Ty France: wOBA .317 vs league .297 (hitter's edge).Slider 11%Cutter: 4% usage, 89.0 mph, -1.3″ arm side, +7.5″ rise. Ty France: wOBA .330 vs league .312 (hitter's edge).Cutter 4%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Ty France's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Ty France's last 40 balls in playHit (17)Out (23)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 76.1 mph at 59°Out: 99.5 mph at 36°Out: 54.8 mph at -45°Single: 104.6 mph at -3°Out: 86.1 mph at 24°Out: 91.5 mph at -27°Out: 49.7 mph at 55°Out: 95.0 mph at -4°Out: 93.9 mph at 20°Out: 96.9 mph at -7°Out: 70.5 mph at -14°Single: 97.0 mph at 16°Double: 100.0 mph at 21°Out: 90.5 mph at -1°Single: 88.6 mph at 6°Single: 89.3 mph at 18°Home run: 106.3 mph at 37°Out: 97.6 mph at -2°Single: 91.4 mph at 20°Double: 97.7 mph at 19°Single: 82.2 mph at 5°Out: 85.8 mph at 72°Out: 85.5 mph at 32°Out: 61.6 mph at 52°Double: 101.6 mph at 19°Out: 92.9 mph at -7°Out: 92.8 mph at 40°Out: 96.3 mph at 23°Out: 106.2 mph at 17°Single: 87.5 mph at 9°Double: 99.5 mph at 30°Single: 105.3 mph at 8°Out: 83.7 mph at 11°Single: 84.0 mph at -4°Out: 96.1 mph at 27°Single: 96.1 mph at 9°Double: 105.2 mph at 10°Out: 96.7 mph at 27°Out: 98.5 mph at 29°Single: 104.2 mph at 5°
50% hit 95+ mph50% in the sweet spot43% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit63.0%63.5%-0.5
2+ total bases38.0%38.5%-0.4
Home run11.4%11.0%+0.4
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-0.2
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.2
Park
-0.1
2+ total bases
Starter
-0.3
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.2
Park
+0.1
Home run
Starter
-0.2
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
+0.7

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Ty France hits
Where they meet

.308 xwOBA for Ty France in the spots Michael Soroka throws to righties

The average hitter in those same spots: .304 (+3 points). His best spot against righties is down-right, and Michael Soroka puts 5% of his pitches there. Context only; the projection reads pitch type, not location.

Michael Soroka · where he throws to right-handed hitters
6% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 22% per swing6%5% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing5%3% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing3%4% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 17% per swing4%6% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing6%9% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing9%2% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing2%5% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 33% per swing5%5% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing5%10% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 50% per swing10%9% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 33% per swing9%5% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing5%32% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 63% per swing32%
All · 196 pitches · catcher's view
1% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters1%1% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters1%1% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters1%1% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters1%4% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters4%6% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters6%1% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters1%7% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters7%10% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters10%4% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters4%3% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters3%1% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters1%56% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters56%
Sweeper · 69 pitches · catcher's view
17% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters17%8% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters8%8% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters8%0% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters9% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters9%11% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters11%0% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters0% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters0% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters17% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters17%17% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters17%0% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters13% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters13%
Fastball · 53 pitches · catcher's view
3% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters3%3% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters3%0% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters14% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters14%8% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters8%3% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters3%5% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters5%14% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters14%5% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters5%11% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters11%0% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters22% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters22%14% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters14%
Sinker · 37 pitches · catcher's view
0% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters9% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters9%3% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters3%6% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters6%3% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters3%18% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters18%0% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters0% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters0% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters12% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters12%18% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters18%0% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters30% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters30%
Cutter · 33 pitches · catcher's view

Share of his pitches in each spot; darker is more. Last 90 days.

Ty France · hot and cold vs RHP
xwOBA .219 shrunk (raw .109 on 6 PA) · league .274 · 24 pitches seen.219xwOBA .239 shrunk (raw .158 on 10 PA) · league .307 · 43 pitches seen.239xwOBA .200 shrunk (raw .117 on 9 PA) · league .263 · 45 pitches seen.200xwOBA .284 shrunk (raw .225 on 12 PA) · league .342 · 29 pitches seen.284xwOBA .444 shrunk (raw .464 on 34 PA) · league .386 · 71 pitches seen.444xwOBA .304 shrunk (raw .295 on 22 PA) · league .321 · 53 pitches seen.304xwOBA .354 shrunk (raw .447 on 6 PA) · league .308 · 22 pitches seen.354xwOBA .375 shrunk (raw .391 on 18 PA) · league .351 · 43 pitches seen.375xwOBA .395 shrunk (raw .490 on 13 PA) · league .292 · 40 pitches seen.395xwOBA .380 shrunk (raw .382 on 23 PA) · league .377 · 97 pitches seen.380xwOBA .291 shrunk (raw .303 on 17 PA) · league .274 · 95 pitches seen.291xwOBA .309 shrunk (raw .371 on 9 PA) · league .263 · 52 pitches seen.309xwOBA .276 shrunk (raw .277 on 48 PA) · league .274 · 256 pitches seen.276
vs RHP · 870 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 21% of 19 swings · league 22%21%Whiff 33% of 33 swings · league 20%33%Whiff 25% of 28 swings · league 19%25%Whiff 12% of 26 swings · league 10%12%Whiff 6% of 66 swings · league 9%6%Whiff 9% of 44 swings · league 11%9%Whiff 10% of 20 swings · league 14%10%Whiff 6% of 34 swings · league 13%6%Whiff 7% of 30 swings · league 17%7%Whiff 48% of 23 swings · league 28%48%Whiff 30% of 30 swings · league 24%30%Whiff 29% of 28 swings · league 32%29%Whiff 41% of 114 swings · league 49%41%
vs RHP · 870 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 79% of 24 pitches · league 62%79%Swings at 77% of 43 pitches · league 72%77%Swings at 62% of 45 pitches · league 66%62%Swings at 90% of 29 pitches · league 70%90%Swings at 93% of 71 pitches · league 76%93%Swings at 83% of 53 pitches · league 70%83%Swings at 91% of 22 pitches · league 65%91%Swings at 79% of 43 pitches · league 68%79%Swings at 75% of 40 pitches · league 60%75%Swings at 24% of 97 pitches · league 24%24%Swings at 32% of 95 pitches · league 34%32%Swings at 54% of 52 pitches · league 40%54%Swings at 45% of 256 pitches · league 32%45%
vs RHP · 870 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Ty France against each of Michael Soroka's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball36%93.7+9″ / +15″.361.34317.7%19.8%639About league average vs these
Sweeper23%80.6-12″ / -8″.306.28724.3%29.9%160About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Sinker14%92.8+16″ / +9″.367.3499.5%11.5%562About league average vs these
Changeup12%84.1+17″ / +7″.367.34815.7%23.3%238About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Slider11%82.4-5″ / -3″.317.29726.1%32.0%277About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Cutter4%89.0-1″ / +8″.330.31226.3%28.5%380About league average vs these
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Ty France · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G518.059.111.059.089.15744.4%5.6%39.6%84.1104.60.0%44.4%22.2%
Last 15 G1555.288.309.442.323.29823.6%3.6%30.3%89.0106.310.0%45.0%47.5%
Last 30 G2899.302.374.453.370.32720.2%11.1%28.1%89.0106.57.4%44.1%47.1%
90 days69228.330.390.520.405.33018.4%7.9%23.0%91.6108.78.0%48.1%44.4%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 162 balls in play
Ground 39%Line drive 23%Fly ball 29%Pop-up 9%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G22.000.500.000.350.3850.0%50.0%20.0%91.591.50.0%0.0%0.0%
Last 15 G79.429.556.429.456.43211.1%11.1%15.0%97.9106.20.0%66.7%50.0%
Last 30 G1630.318.467.636.458.37920.0%20.0%30.3%94.2107.45.9%47.1%52.9%
90 days4083.279.386.456.368.34824.1%9.6%26.6%93.9107.44.0%48.0%42.0%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 50 balls in play
Ground 42%Line drive 24%Fly ball 30%Pop-up 4%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G520.056.150.056.115.18040.0%10.0%37.7%84.8104.60.0%40.0%20.0%
Last 15 G1564.305.344.441.341.31621.9%4.7%28.4%90.1106.38.7%47.8%47.8%
Last 30 G30129.306.395.491.391.33920.2%13.2%28.6%90.1107.47.1%44.7%48.2%
90 days73311.317.389.504.395.33519.9%8.4%24.0%92.1108.77.1%48.1%43.9%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 212 balls in play
Ground 40%Line drive 23%Fly ball 29%Pop-up 8%
Ty France · percentile ranksvs 228 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormCold
Contact rating85Excellent
Last 100 pitches1trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.393 / .357running 36 points ahead of his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit7/12
2+ total bases6/12
Home run1/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 24RHPSlider91.476.159.035Out
Sep 24RHPSlider90.999.536.651Out
Sep 23RHPSlider87.854.8-45.123Out
Sep 23RHPFastball96.4104.6-3.335Single
Sep 23RHPSplitter91.186.124.227Out
Sep 23LHPCurveball80.991.5-27.072Out
Sep 22RHPFastball96.549.755.010Out
Sep 20RHPChangeup91.895.0-4.224Out
Sep 20RHPSinker95.793.920.342Out
Sep 20RHPFastball98.396.9-7.176Out
Sep 19RHPFastball97.870.5-14.032Out
Sep 19RHPSlider89.897.016.679Single
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25400013
Sep 24400002
Sep 23411000
Sep 22400012
Sep 20400001
Sep 19534000
Sep 18425101
Sep 17534000
Sep 16512000
Sep 15400002

Two strikes

Michael Soroka ARI · RHPwith two strikes
Michael Soroka with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Sweeper32%50%39.5%31.3%20.7%
Fastball32%32%20.0%14.3%18.3%
Changeup13%10%11.1%7.7%18.4%
Sinker10%5%0.0%16.7%17.7%
Cutter14%3%66.7%50.0%18.7%
Other0%1%–0.0%17.9%
Ty France bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
Ty France with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Makes contact on his two-strike stuff more than most
With two strikesHimLeague
K%37.0%43.3%
Whiff%18.1%23.5%
Contact%81.9%76.5%
Chase%38.4%39.4%
wOBA.257.235
Whiff vs his put-away shapes18.1%23.3%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeAPower type
wOBA.369
K%19.9%
BB%8.0%
Whiff%12.9%
Barrel%4.9%
Hard-hit%32.5%
Avg EV91.7

Against right-handers, last 90 days

229 PA
wOBA.395
xwOBA vs this mix.329against pitches like his
RV/1001.51
Hard-hit%33.2%
K%19.0%
BB%8.4%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Michael SorokaRHP · ARI vs SD
4.5projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 7 · 20.8 batters over 4.8 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 34.9%35%≤34 strikeouts: 19.0%19%45 strikeouts: 16.9%17%56 strikeouts: 12.6%13%67 strikeouts: 8.1%8%78 strikeouts: 4.5%5%89+ strikeouts: 4.0%4%9+book 4.5
Over 4.5: 46% (red bars) · under: 54%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%25.6%
BB%8.3%
Whiff%11.2%
Velo87.7
BTB Stuff90
Location101
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff%
Sweeper32%7480.718.0%
Fastball32%9993.29.4%
Cutter14%10889.09.4%
Changeup13%8685.88.3%
Sinker10%8993.12.1%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 229336%14%24%.258
Sep 158033%16%11%.200
Sep 95825%9%38%.281

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Michael Soroka ARI · RHPvsSD lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

0 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.8%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameARI @ SD →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Ty France: every projection we've made →