MLBengine v14
← ARI at SD, Sep 27, 2026
2:10 PM CT · Petco Park · lineup projected
Hitter · SD · batting 6Xander Bogaerts
Bats rightTalent grade BPowerHot
.309wOBA vs RHP.322xwOBA vs his mix3.6expected PA
Starter · ARIMichael Soroka
Throws rightBTB Stuff 90Trending Up
4.5projected K26%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Michael Soroka's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 36% usage, 93.7 mph, +8.5″ arm side, +15.1″ rise. Xander Bogaerts: wOBA .363 vs league .343 (hitter's edge).Fastball 36%Sweeper: 23% usage, 80.6 mph, -11.9″ arm side, -8.3″ rise. Xander Bogaerts: wOBA .307 vs league .287 (hitter's edge).Sweeper 23%Sinker: 14% usage, 92.8 mph, +16.3″ arm side, +8.8″ rise. Xander Bogaerts: wOBA .369 vs league .349 (hitter's edge).Sinker 14%Changeup: 12% usage, 84.1 mph, +17.0″ arm side, +7.0″ rise. Xander Bogaerts: wOBA .367 vs league .348 (hitter's edge).Changeup 12%Slider: 11% usage, 82.4 mph, -4.8″ arm side, -3.2″ rise. Xander Bogaerts: wOBA .318 vs league .297 (hitter's edge).Slider 11%Cutter: 4% usage, 89.0 mph, -1.3″ arm side, +7.5″ rise. Xander Bogaerts: wOBA .332 vs league .312 (hitter's edge).Cutter 4%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Xander Bogaerts's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Xander Bogaerts's last 40 balls in playHit (17)Out (23)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Single: 78.5 mph at 14°Single: 105.8 mph at 12°Out: 91.2 mph at -34°Out: 77.9 mph at 50°Out: 89.8 mph at -37°Out: 104.2 mph at -8°Out: 106.0 mph at -12°Out: 99.4 mph at 7°Single: 101.7 mph at -3°Out: 73.0 mph at -21°Out: 83.1 mph at 72°Single: 99.3 mph at 8°Out: 81.9 mph at -16°Single: 76.7 mph at 21°Double: 97.6 mph at -4°Triple: 89.5 mph at 15°Home run: 108.3 mph at 24°Double: 100.0 mph at 21°Out: 97.7 mph at -4°Out: 95.8 mph at 2°Single: 92.7 mph at 9°Out: 107.9 mph at 0°Out: 101.3 mph at 49°Out: 97.0 mph at -19°Single: 112.0 mph at 7°Out: 80.5 mph at 62°Out: 91.7 mph at 68°Out: 106.0 mph at -26°Single: 99.7 mph at 12°Single: 101.5 mph at 15°Single: 70.5 mph at -46°Double: 79.1 mph at -1°Double: 96.4 mph at -2°Out: 80.1 mph at -19°Out: 74.2 mph at -44°Out: 99.5 mph at 23°Single: 77.6 mph at -57°Out: 94.1 mph at -2°Out: 73.3 mph at -7°Out: 91.1 mph at 48°
50% hit 95+ mph28% in the sweet spot43% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit58.6%58.9%-0.3
2+ total bases32.2%32.3%-0.0
Home run9.1%8.2%+0.9
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-0.0
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
-0.1
2+ total bases
Starter
+0.1
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.2
Park
+0.1
Home run
Starter
+0.4
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
+0.6

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Xander Bogaerts hits
Where they meet

.331 xwOBA for Xander Bogaerts in the spots Michael Soroka throws to righties

The average hitter in those same spots: .304 (+27 points). His best spot against righties is up-right, and Michael Soroka puts 3% of his pitches there. Context only; the projection reads pitch type, not location.

Michael Soroka · where he throws to right-handed hitters
6% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 22% per swing6%5% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing5%3% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing3%4% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 17% per swing4%6% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing6%9% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing9%2% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing2%5% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 33% per swing5%5% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing5%10% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 50% per swing10%9% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 33% per swing9%5% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing5%32% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 63% per swing32%
All · 196 pitches · catcher's view
1% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters1%1% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters1%1% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters1%1% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters1%4% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters4%6% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters6%1% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters1%7% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters7%10% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters10%4% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters4%3% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters3%1% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters1%56% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters56%
Sweeper · 69 pitches · catcher's view
17% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters17%8% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters8%8% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters8%0% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters9% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters9%11% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters11%0% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters0% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters0% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters17% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters17%17% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters17%0% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters13% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters13%
Fastball · 53 pitches · catcher's view
3% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters3%3% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters3%0% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters14% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters14%8% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters8%3% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters3%5% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters5%14% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters14%5% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters5%11% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters11%0% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters22% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters22%14% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters14%
Sinker · 37 pitches · catcher's view
0% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters9% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters9%3% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters3%6% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters6%3% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters3%18% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters18%0% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters0% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters0% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters12% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters12%18% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters18%0% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters30% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters30%
Cutter · 33 pitches · catcher's view

Share of his pitches in each spot; darker is more. Last 90 days.

Xander Bogaerts · hot and cold vs RHP
xwOBA .274 shrunk (raw .275 on 7 PA) · league .274 · 21 pitches seen.274xwOBA .373 shrunk (raw .434 on 13 PA) · league .307 · 31 pitches seen.373xwOBA .460 shrunk (raw .618 on 15 PA) · league .263 · 31 pitches seen.460xwOBA .324 shrunk (raw .313 on 19 PA) · league .342 · 50 pitches seen.324xwOBA .258 shrunk (raw .172 on 18 PA) · league .386 · 50 pitches seen.258xwOBA .256 shrunk (raw .217 on 20 PA) · league .321 · 54 pitches seen.256xwOBA .217 shrunk (raw .081 on 8 PA) · league .308 · 29 pitches seen.217xwOBA .302 shrunk (raw .257 on 13 PA) · league .351 · 54 pitches seen.302xwOBA .234 shrunk (raw .197 on 19 PA) · league .292 · 60 pitches seen.234xwOBA .431 shrunk (raw .478 on 14 PA) · league .377 · 70 pitches seen.431xwOBA .332 shrunk (raw .410 on 9 PA) · league .274 · 43 pitches seen.332xwOBA .316 shrunk (raw .347 on 20 PA) · league .263 · 88 pitches seen.316xwOBA .353 shrunk (raw .380 on 35 PA) · league .274 · 272 pitches seen.353
vs RHP · 853 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 0% of 11 swings · league 22%0%Whiff 5% of 22 swings · league 20%5%Whiff 0% of 24 swings · league 19%0%Whiff 12% of 33 swings · league 10%12%Whiff 9% of 33 swings · league 9%9%Whiff 9% of 35 swings · league 11%9%Whiff 13% of 16 swings · league 14%13%Whiff 29% of 28 swings · league 13%29%Whiff 33% of 30 swings · league 17%33%Whiff 19% of 16 swings · league 28%19%Whiff 32% of 19 swings · league 24%32%Whiff 32% of 22 swings · league 32%32%Whiff 55% of 49 swings · league 49%55%
vs RHP · 853 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 52% of 21 pitches · league 62%52%Swings at 71% of 31 pitches · league 72%71%Swings at 77% of 31 pitches · league 66%77%Swings at 66% of 50 pitches · league 70%66%Swings at 66% of 50 pitches · league 76%66%Swings at 65% of 54 pitches · league 70%65%Swings at 55% of 29 pitches · league 65%55%Swings at 52% of 54 pitches · league 68%52%Swings at 50% of 60 pitches · league 60%50%Swings at 23% of 70 pitches · league 24%23%Swings at 44% of 43 pitches · league 34%44%Swings at 25% of 88 pitches · league 40%25%Swings at 18% of 272 pitches · league 32%18%
vs RHP · 853 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Xander Bogaerts against each of Michael Soroka's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball36%93.7+9″ / +15″.363.34314.0%19.8%633About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Sweeper23%80.6-12″ / -8″.307.28726.4%29.9%170About league average vs these
Sinker14%92.8+16″ / +9″.369.3499.1%11.5%571About league average vs these
Changeup12%84.1+17″ / +7″.367.34823.3%23.3%242About league average vs these
Slider11%82.4-5″ / -3″.318.29727.8%32.0%296About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Cutter4%89.0-1″ / +8″.332.31221.8%28.5%403About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Xander Bogaerts · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G515.333.467.333.380.3846.7%20.0%16.7%91.3105.80.0%45.5%27.3%
Last 15 G1547.300.404.500.403.32721.3%14.9%17.9%91.4112.03.4%48.3%20.7%
Last 30 G2986.243.349.378.331.31520.9%14.0%22.9%93.4112.03.6%50.9%23.6%
90 days70212.223.330.358.312.32719.8%13.7%21.9%90.9112.07.2%44.9%30.4%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 138 balls in play
Ground 55%Line drive 17%Fly ball 23%Pop-up 5%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G22.000.000.000.000.14250.0%0.0%20.0%106.0106.00.0%100.0%0.0%
Last 15 G914.385.429.462.396.4187.1%7.1%21.1%94.7107.90.0%58.3%41.7%
Last 30 G1632.357.438.393.382.3829.4%12.5%20.4%91.7107.90.0%44.0%36.0%
90 days4186.257.360.311.313.34612.8%14.0%21.6%91.8111.00.0%50.8%27.0%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 63 balls in play
Ground 59%Line drive 21%Fly ball 14%Pop-up 6%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G517.286.412.286.335.35611.8%17.6%17.2%92.5106.00.0%50.0%25.0%
Last 15 G1561.321.410.491.402.34818.0%13.1%18.6%92.4112.02.4%51.2%26.8%
Last 30 G30118.275.373.382.345.33317.8%13.6%22.2%92.9112.02.5%48.8%27.5%
90 days75298.233.339.344.313.33217.8%13.8%21.8%91.2112.05.0%46.8%29.4%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 201 balls in play
Ground 56%Line drive 18%Fly ball 20%Pop-up 6%
Xander Bogaerts · percentile ranksvs 228 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormHot
Contact rating76Above average
Last 100 pitches53trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.313 / .345running 32 points behind his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit8/12
2+ total bases4/12
Home run1/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25RHPSweeper84.478.514.634Single
Sep 25RHPCurveball83.3105.812.965Single
Sep 24RHPSinker95.591.2-34.050Out
Sep 24RHPCurveball81.577.950.055Out
Sep 24RHPFastball97.089.8-37.047Out
Sep 23RHPSplitter92.1104.2-8.324Out
Sep 22LHPSinker95.3106.0-12.284Force out
Sep 22RHPFastball96.699.47.577Out
Sep 22RHPFastball100.1101.7-3.394Single
Sep 20RHPSweeper83.973.0-21.041Out
Sep 20RHPSlider84.683.172.003Out
Sep 20RHPSinker99.199.38.580Single
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25222000
Sep 24400010
Sep 23400012
Sep 22311000
Sep 20411010
Sep 18423001
Sep 17539102
Sep 16400020
Sep 15511002
Sep 14411010

Two strikes

Michael Soroka ARI · RHPwith two strikes
Michael Soroka with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Sweeper32%50%39.5%31.3%20.7%
Fastball32%32%20.0%14.3%18.3%
Changeup13%10%11.1%7.7%18.4%
Sinker10%5%0.0%16.7%17.7%
Cutter14%3%66.7%50.0%18.7%
Other0%1%–0.0%17.9%
Xander Bogaerts bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
Xander Bogaerts with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Makes contact on his two-strike stuff more than most
With two strikesHimLeague
K%34.3%43.3%
Whiff%18.1%23.5%
Contact%81.9%76.5%
Chase%41.7%39.4%
wOBA.271.235
Whiff vs his put-away shapes17.7%23.3%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeBPower type
wOBA.316
K%17.9%
BB%13.1%
Whiff%8.8%
Barrel%3.7%
Hard-hit%30.8%
Avg EV90.8

Against right-handers, last 90 days

209 PA
wOBA.309
xwOBA vs this mix.322against pitches like his
RV/100-0.43
Hard-hit%28.7%
K%20.1%
BB%13.6%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Michael SorokaRHP · ARI vs SD
4.5projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 7 · 20.8 batters over 4.8 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 34.9%35%≤34 strikeouts: 19.0%19%45 strikeouts: 16.9%17%56 strikeouts: 12.6%13%67 strikeouts: 8.1%8%78 strikeouts: 4.5%5%89+ strikeouts: 4.0%4%9+book 4.5
Over 4.5: 46% (red bars) · under: 54%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%25.6%
BB%8.3%
Whiff%11.2%
Velo87.7
BTB Stuff90
Location101
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff%
Sweeper32%7480.718.0%
Fastball32%9993.29.4%
Cutter14%10889.09.4%
Changeup13%8685.88.3%
Sinker10%8993.12.1%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 229336%14%24%.258
Sep 158033%16%11%.200
Sep 95825%9%38%.281

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Michael Soroka ARI · RHPvsSD lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

0 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.8%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameARI @ SD →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Xander Bogaerts: every projection we've made →